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Promotion ? Yes, no, why ?

Discussion in 'Charlton' started by Part Time Crombie Model, Jan 26, 2025.

  1. Part Time Crombie Model

    Part Time Crombie Model Well-Known Member

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    Despite the welcome uptick in our results, it’s still a “no” from me.

    Two reasons - we are a couple of key injuries (Lloyd Jones & Miles Leaburn) away from another dip. We will need a lot of luck to keep our two best players & Ramsay fit for the next 20 games, and there’s currently no back up.

    Secondly - results have been better than performances. We didn’t actually play that well yesterday. There’s still plenty of grit in the oyster unfortunately.

    I think we will finish 8th without a couple of quality signings this week.

    Thoughts ?
     
    #1
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  2. ElfsborgAddick

    ElfsborgAddick Well-Known Member

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    If we find ourselves in a play-off spot it would mean we have continued with our run, and others have continued with a poor run.
    I'll stick with a failure.
     
    #2
  3. Dick Plumb1

    Dick Plumb1 Well-Known Member

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    I don’t think we will finish in the top six.
     
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  4. Smudger603

    Smudger603 Well-Known Member

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    If we should get to the playoffs I don’t think we’ll be successful
     
    #4
  5. Part Time Crombie Model

    Part Time Crombie Model Well-Known Member

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    If, and it’s a big if, we do get promoted, the US billionaires will need to take their spending to a whole new level in the Championship next season.

    Assuming they don’t flip the club pronto.
     
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  6. Squareball

    Squareball Well-Known Member

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    We won’t be going up although it’s better to be talking about top six than bottom six.
     
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  7. The Penguin

    The Penguin Well-Known Member

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    This squad to miss out. With a good replacement for Berry we can make the playoffs.
     
    #7
  8. Part Time Crombie Model

    Part Time Crombie Model Well-Known Member

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    Nathan Jones explained again at the Q&A last week that he was opposed to loans (apart from A Campbell his Luton mate <whistle>)

    “developing other clubs players” was how he dismissed it.

    That suggests to me that any signings this week will be free agents.
     
    #8
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  9. Smudger603

    Smudger603 Well-Known Member

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    And A Campbell is complete dross ! - apparently,from seriously, championship players would loathe to step down to league 1 ! Not sure where he thinks they should be loaned to ?
     
    #9
  10. lardiman

    lardiman We can rebuild him
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    To answer the original question - it doesn't matter.

    I would give Charlton around a 6% or 7% chance of gaining promotion from where we are now.
    That's a 25% chance of making 6th or 5th place
    Multiplied by a 25% chance of winning the play-offs
    (and that's being very optimistic given the likely quality of the two play-off opponents we will have to defeat).

    With a much better manager and a much better squad CAFC won at Wembley in 2019.
    Then look what happened.

    If Charlton happen to be in the Championship for the 2025-26 season NJ will receive less backing than Lee Bowyer got.
    Which was a sum so small agents laughed at Bowyer over the phone when he told them his resources.
    We will be torn limb from limb 46 times.
    So what's the point?

    When Charlton dropped out of the top flight in 1957 they spent 39 years getting back.
    But only 4 of those seasons were spent in the 3rd Division.

    Second time down we took just 8 seasons to get back, even allowing for a resource-draining return to the Valley.
    And none of those seasons were spent in the 3rd Division.

    This time it will be an absolute minimum of 20 seasons, probably considerably longer, to return to the Premier League.
    And we have so far spent 11 of those seasons in the 3rd Division. And it may well be more.

    Charlton Athletic has never faced a decline as steep and damaging as the one it is suffering now.
    So promotion this season will never have meant less.
    Even if it happens it will be the least relevant 'success' in the Club's 120 year history.

    As in 2019, promotion will not solve Charlton's underlying problems.
    Any fan pinning hopes on a new owner coming to the rescue in the 2nd tier - look who we got last time we were up there.
    We won't attract anyone willing to pay the Landlord £50m+ to get the Valley back.
    And that, as they say, is all she wrote.
     
    #10
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2025

  11. Typical part 2

    Typical part 2 Well-Known Member

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    No - the squad is not good enough. We need that creative midfielder and an experienced Jorge Costa type defender to take us through the rest of the winter and the spiteful games and keep the heads up.
     
    #11
  12. Smudger603

    Smudger603 Well-Known Member

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    We need a leader ! Jones is close but he’s no Costa !
     
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  13. Part Time Crombie Model

    Part Time Crombie Model Well-Known Member

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    He (Hawtrey) is literally obsessed with “PL loans”. It’s one of his weird in jokes.

    Even though Nile John, Dylan Levitt, Matt Smith etc were all PL loans …that gets glossed over of course because nobody on ITTV is allowed to challenge “Charles”. ​
     
    #13
  14. Part Time Crombie Model

    Part Time Crombie Model Well-Known Member

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    “The Tank”. What a defender.
     
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  15. ElfsborgAddick

    ElfsborgAddick Well-Known Member

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    This run is accident rather than by design.
    We are still a s*** show.
     
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  16. Watameire

    Watameire Well-Known Member

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    Think we’ll end up around 8th. Failure of a season and landing the owners at a crossroads
     
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  17. The Penguin

    The Penguin Well-Known Member

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    Top of the table looks interesting
     
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  18. Part Time Crombie Model

    Part Time Crombie Model Well-Known Member

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    A definite “no”.

    Too many teams around us, all much of a muchness, but we will need a miracle to go 15 games without an injury to Lloyd Jones or one of our few essential players.

    It is a disgrace that we are supposedly embarking on a “promotion challenge” with the 2nd fewest number of outfield players in the league.

    I wouldn’t want to see this SMT or squad in the Championship anyway, it would be embarrassing.

    Can you imagine the budget Methven would give Nathan Jones if we were promoted this summer <laugh>
     
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  19. Smudger603

    Smudger603 Well-Known Member

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    Truth is yes we could Nick promotion but as you say we’re really not ready for it at the moment- but would it prompt the “owners “ into splashing some cash ?
     
    #19
  20. Part Time Crombie Model

    Part Time Crombie Model Well-Known Member

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    It’s highly unlikely.

    Methven’s business model in the Championship would be identical.

    Can you imagine us running out at Wolves or Leicester City away in August with a front line of Ahadme & Tyreece Campbell …
     
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