Just got the old calculator out and did some sums for the last ten Div2 seasons. Points required on average over the last ten seasons. To win the league....... ...87.9. To gain promotion..........81.7. Play-off spot....................70.8. Can Argyle aim that high this season ? So at present.....49pts from 31 games. If we win all our remaining 15 games.....45pts.....add 49 = 94pts.....possible.
If only football was as simple as using the old calculator method wouldn't life be so much easier. I have thought for a while now, or at least since our wobble in the middle, that automatic promotion was a bridge too far. I still think it is due mainly to the gap that has opened up between us and them already occupying the spots. Wycombe may be falling apart but Luton are about to take their place so the gap could be bigger tonight than it is now. Play off is eminently possible which is where we are now. The only question in my mind is which play off spot will we achieve if any. At the moment I'd say 5th/6th at best.
Am thinking we could realistically win 9 out of the remaining 15 fixtures giving us a total of 76 which is unlikely to be enough for the automatics but will comfortably be a play off position. Obviously a couple more wins and we might sneak into 3 rd but I really don't think we will finish any lower than 7th (unless we have a rash of injuries). Not convinced it matters where in the playoffs anyone finishes and history backs this up- it is all a bit of a lottery really.
Well that's the first bit of my above contribution that I got wrong I'm pleased to say. Luton lost at Mansfield so the gap isn't any bigger it is still 7 points. Being consistent is the one thing that is going to cut it. Wycombe are beginning to become unravelled even though I thought they were one of the better sides I've seen this season. They have been punching above their weight all season although justifiably for me. I doubt many would have put them where they are now or even fancied them for anything and that includes their own supporters. I think the third spot is up for grabs by A.n.other. I still think Argyle have a mountain to climb for it to be them but if consistent then who knows, anything can happen.
