Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe Preview 2012 - | Horse Racing

For members’ interest, I am posting an early preview of this year’s Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe.
Hopefully we can comment and add to it as the race approaches.
I have included most of the main contenders, but please include any others you want to mention.

For the Early News Thread

See also Les Arc Trials and Iffezheim-Cracker

Runners

Betting

Camelot.
The ante-post favourite. It seems almost certain he will go to Doncaster and attempt the Triple Crown. This must raise a doubt over his participation at Longchamp, especially since he will have only three weeks to recover.
This in itself makes the ante-post market attractive to early punters. His current best price of 3/1 for The Arc will not appeal to many.

Danedream.
Last year’s impressive winner came to hand in The King George and belied her odds to beat Nathaniel in a tremendous finish. She must have a great chance, especially on good ground. Best price 7/1.

Nathaniel.
A game and consistent colt who relishes cut in the ground. On form, he has much the same chance as Danedream. On good, fast ground, I’d fancy the German filly but Nathaniel should have the edge in testing conditions. Best Price 7/1.

St Nicholas Abbey.
The five year old keeps his form very well and may be O’Brien’s main hope. Although Danedream sprinted away from him in last year’s race, the tactics may not have suited- he was up front all the way and led fully three furlongs out. Since then, waiting tactics have produced better results, both in The Breeder’s Cup Turf and The Coronation Cup. Arguably the tactics were overdone against Danedream and Nathaniel last time, but I should expect him to run really well in The Arc- especially on good ground. Best price 12/1.

Imperial Monarch.
The Grand Prix De Paris winner obviously relishes soft ground. He seemed very unlucky in The French Derby after winning really well at Sandown. He is hard to assess but couldn’t be discounted if the going came up testing. Beautifully bred, this lightly raced colt may have more to offer. Best price 20/1.

Sea Moon.
Despite disappointing in last year’s St Leger and found wanting for pace in The King George, he hasn’t done too much wrong. However, it’s hard to see him winning and his Best Price 20/1 probably represents his chance.

Great Heavens.
John Gosden has two good fillies entered- Great Heavens and The Fugue.
After an impressive win in The Lancashire Oaks, Great Heavens was a warm favourite for The Irish Oaks. Yet what a strange race she ran! After seemingly out of contention (and outpaced), she came from nowhere and rallied strongly to win going away.
Lightly raced, she may have much more to offer, and testing ground will pose no problem. Best Price 25/1.

The Fugue.
She came into her own last time at Goodwood after being outpointed by Princess Highway at Ascot. However I think her stablemate has better credentials. Best Price 20/1.

Valyra.
This Aga Khan Azamour filly is unbeaten in only three races and was a big outsider when capturing The Prix De Diane- beating the likewise unbeaten hotpot, Beauty Parlour. She is the shortest price of French fancies and could be a big improver. Best Price 14/1.

Meandre.
This highly consistent four year old is another leading French fancy but, on his sixth place in the race last year, his recent form hardly suggests he can go one better this time round. Best Price 16/1.

Snow Fairy.
Last year’s third, Snow Fairy, is entered- even though she has not seen a racecourse this year. She has several entries in forthcoming weeks, and Ed Dunlop’s talented mare is an interesting addition to the field. Best Price 33/1.

Shareta.
Another Aga Khan entry, the filly ran a great race to be second last year- just pipping Snow Fairy. She hasn’t won since, but has been second to Meandre in her last race. Best Price 25/1.

No Risk At All.
I find this five year old the most interesting entrant of all.
Although he ran down the field in The French Derby two years ago, all his other races as a three and four year old were confined to a mile- apart from one effort at nine furlongs.
This season, he started by running creditably and being placed in two Group mile races (Groups 3 & 2).
In his last two races, he stepped up to 10 furlongs (Group 3) for the first time in two years, and has hacked up on both occasions- slaughtering Meandre in the first of these.
His trainer is targeting The Prix Foy as his prep. race for The Arc. Best Price 33/1.

Summary.
A very open Arc De Triomphe.
I do not expect Camelot to be in the field. Danedream, Nathaniel, and St Nicholas Abbey will all have their supporters, but I think there is better value elsewhere.

No Risk At All offers good value at 33/1. He has similar credentials to the last two five year olds to win the race- Marienbard and Star Appeal. All of these three showed average form until they blossomed at five.

Great Heavens is likewise attractive at 25/1, and I shall be having a saver on her.

Valyra could be anything, but her price of 14/1 does not appeal.

What do other members think?

 

I currently hold a ante post ticket for Nathaniel at 20/1 e/w... I got it back in June after reading a write up somewhere, i forgot who, and just thought yeah youve got a point...!!! So after a bit of a win i put £20 e/w on him...

So my interest at this moment and up to the race will be with him. Obviously with the race been in October i wouldn't mind that a little rain would have fallen and thus help his cause, so finger crossed there. But i take a little heart in the fact that he is a current price of 7/1...

You make some good points as usual Tam and i think your right about Camelot, the Triple Crown must be too big to miss... What do you think would happen to the prices of the leading three if Camelot was to miss this race...? How short do you think the top three would go to...?

Ive got to be happy with my 20/1 right now...

 

redcgull, if Camelot does not go to post- and the going comes up testing, Nathaniel would have to be a big player. Either way, I'd be very happy with a 20/1 voucher on Nathaniel. It would be hard to kick him out of a place. I also think Great Heavens would shorten in price considerably, too.

 

There's no value in this market until you know the draw in my opinion. I think it's the worst ante post market in racing. Not only are you having to avoid injury, illness and loss of form over a long hard season but you need to get the right side of the draw to have any chance whatsoever.

 

Three year olds have the best record in the race, winning 57 of the 89 runnings to date.

The weight for age plays a big part in this race, as well as the fillies allowance, though prior to Zarkava it had been 26 years since a 3yo filly had won the race (15 years since the last winning mare, Urban Sea).

 

First things first – neither The Fugue or Great Heavens are amongst the original entry for Longchamp on 7 October, so if you have an ante-post punt, you need the owners to put their hands in their pockets for supplementary entry fees the week before the race.

As Nathaniel is in the entries and is in the same ownership as Great Heavens, is it not possible that she will head to Doncaster for the St Leger and not travel to France, just like Camelot?

Whilst the older horses do appear to be better than the three-year-olds this year, I am looking at the Andre Fabre trained Last Train, owned by Khalid Abdulla and a close second to Imperial Monarch in the Grand Prix de Paris on Bastille Day. It will be interesting to see whether he is being targeted at the Prix Niel as this is (statistically) the best of the Arc trials when it comes to the big race itself. The Prix Vermeille and the Prix Foy have not thrown up many Arc winners in the last twenty years.

 

Quel i take your point, but to be honest i have only had about 10 ante post bets ever before, and they tend to be all at Cheltenham. I had a good win back in June and just had a go because i had a bit of money spare so to speak... Its not my usual course of action as i do agree with you there are a lot of variables to get past before the actual race takes place...


Though im still happy with my 20/1...

 

Those of us that could not care less about most social networking sites wish that others did not have so many plug-ins for them that cause the original entry to not appear whilst the plug-ins download so one clicks the 'Post Quick Reply' button again and end up with two identical postings.

 

It was after what Gary Nutting, ATR pundit, wrote in his article on Nathaniel that i placed this bet...

 

Cheers Tam. I had to have a look at No Risk At All after your reference to an easy victory over Meandre. However, I notice that Meandre has never run well on very soft so I think I'll pass on that one as I think that form may not be as good as it sounds.

I didn't think for one moment that I would be saying this but Danedream seems to be one serious filly. She broke the course record last year on good going and then ran a fantastic finish in a good time on good to soft* to defeat Nathaniel in the KG. Unless it comes up soft she must have a real chance of joining that elite group of back to back winners. If it comes up heavy I'll have to back Great Heavens but I won't be backing anything until I'm on the course and seen them in the paddock. Last year Workforce couldn't have looked worse in the paddock and had no chance.

*According to RP. I've just noticed that ATR show it as Good.

 

A quick analysis of the principals in betting order:

Camelot – unless the trainer has lied to the media about the horse’s agenda, he will not be taking on his elders.

Danedream – defending champion, every chance having put in a great King George effort.

Nathaniel – touched off at Ascot by Danedream but still a live chance especially if there is juice in the ground.

St Nicholas Abbey – trainer reckons it needs fast ground (unlikely to get that in October) plus it does not go right-handed so no chance.

Valyra – lightly raced and presumably being targeted at race so definite chance for the home team.

Orfevre – impossible to evaluate Japanese form; however their Derby winner was thrashed in the King George.

Meandre – not as good this year as last but trainer’s record in race deserves respect.

Snow Fairy – best when the ground is quick, few miles on the clock, can only be considered on the day of the race when going is known.

Saint Baudolino – beaten enough times to suggest that will not be top of trainer’s pecking order but Godolphin may let him take his chance.

Sea Moon – disappointed in King George and hard to envisage a form reversal with the first two.

Imperial Monarch – effort at Chantilly best forgotten, course and distance win in Grand Prix de Paris suggests good claims but was allowed to dictate there.

Last Train – just failed on Bastille Day and possibly best of his trainer’s current options.

The Fugue – not actually entered, has only raced against own sex and question marks against some of form.

Beauty Parlour – now with Sir Henry, no idea whether she will stay (longest distance raced ten furlongs) and plans not divulged.

Novellist – hard to gauge whether the form is actually any good, but the same was said about Danedream twelve months ago.

Great Heavens – needs to be added, looks fantastic on soft ground but difficult to gauge whether she has beaten any fillies of note.

Main Sequence – after Camelot arguably the pick of the three-year-olds if he puts his best foot forward; favourite for the Great Voltigeur, may be St Leger bound.

Not sure why Bonfire is still quoted in the betting at 50/1, as he is not eligible for the race as a gelding.

 

I wish I could find a bookmaker offering odds on neither Camelot nor Frankel showing up in Paris on 7th October. Frankel 1/3 with a run is the joke bet of the year just ahead of 2/1 and losing your stake.

Whilst the money is no object, for the superstar to run there would be two supplementary fees involved – Frankel and Bullet Train. Add to this the fact that the draw would become a big factor as Bullet Train would not be running in his own right but would want the lead. Frankel would not want to be boxed in amongst the other eighteen runners and we know that the home team would try to ensure that he did not get a clear passage.

Personally I think the only prospect of seeing Frankel at Longchamp is 16th September for the Prix du Moulin; otherwise, it is definitely Ascot for the Champion Stakes. If Frankel does go to France, it will be interesting to see how many show up to see him as Arc Trials day has only included the Moulin since last year and for a card that already had a Group 1, two Group 2s and a Group 3 before that it is as poorly attended as a wet Wednesday at Newton Abbot.

If Camelot shows up for the Arc that would make Aidan O’Brien a liar since he is already on record saying that the horse will only have a maximum of two more races this season – a prep-race (which did not happen) and the St Leger.

 

hmmm

 

On that basis, he is already a liar. I'm no AOB fan but that seems a bit harsh. Maybe he should just learn to start such sentences with "The current plan (although circumstances could of course cause us to change the plan) is .....".or "Current thinking is....". Personally I think it would only be fair to assume those caveats.

 

I guess that taken that way, most trainers are liars, especially those that like a gamble and feed the media misinformation to further their cause. According to the dictionary, the definition is:

So there could be a change of plan – which the bookies clearly think will happen as the horse has been clear favourite all year (even after O’Brien’s statement) until Frankel’s demolition job on Wednesday.

I am looking forward to the betting on what excuse O’Brien will offer if Camelot is beaten in the St Leger.

 

How about:
"Listen, we wanted to give him a prep race bla bla bla"

These are his entries. Why FFS is he entered in a mile race? Surely not so he can dodge Frankel.

Date Off Time Course Distance Race Title
15 Sep 12 15:10 Doncaster 1m 6f 132y Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1)
20 Oct 12 15:35 Ascot 1m Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Sponsored By Qipco (British Champions Mile) (Group 1)
20 Oct 12 16:10 Ascot 1m 2f Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1)

 

Listen, obviously he's always showed us a lot of speed at home.....etc, etc, etc.

The only surprise is that he isn't entered for the Sprint.