Prix de l Arc de Triomphe, Sunday 3rd October 2021

With the Derby and Oaks being as open as they are, what chance of assessing this year's Arc?

Well, for the time being, I'm going to look at it from 2 angles

1. If either the Derby fav or Oaks fav turn out to be decent then their odds will shrink. So Bolshoi Ballet at 16s wit PP and Santa Barbara at 20s with B365 look worth a small interest

2. Older horses that have proved to be top class. For these I look to Love, based mainly on her Epsom performance and Tarnawa, based mainly on her Prix Vermeille performance. Love is 7/1 fav and Tarnawa is 9/1 with B365




If one of the Derby or Oaks turns up a super star that leaves a bit to have on that immediately after the classics before that price tumbles

 

My opening bet on the Arc was on Santa Barbara at 33/1.

As I said on another thread, she was so short for the Guineas and Oaks that the Arc price was perhaps the only way we would ever get good odds on her if she proved as good as the hype over the winter.

The 1000 Guineas wasn't a bad effort on her second career start and if it were not for her high expectations and short odds we would have been considering it a cracker of a run. My thinking was also that the Classics may come soon enough and that she could bloom in the autumn.

I still feel she has a bit to prove in the Oaks but Noon Star and Teona failed their Musidora test and that will have perhaps made the task less daunting in a weak looking year.

In Swoop, who narrowly lost to Sottsass in last year's Arc was cut after winning today but that was an egg and spoon race where the 2nd fav was a bit disappointing and the overrated looking and Nagano Gold ran well below his official rating. I don't think In Swoop enhanced his chances in any way today in a performance rated 108 by the Racing Post and that included raising the runner up 18 lbs past his previous best on his 14th career start. Looked dodgy to me.

I will no doubt pick something else later but for now Santa Barbara is my starting point at double carpet.

 

The current Arc market tells its own story:

7/1 Love
9/1 Mishriff, Tarnawa
12/1 Contrail
16/1 Bolshoi Ballet
20/1 Raabihah, Santa Barbara, Lei Papale, Russian Camelot, Mare Australis

Only the Derby and Oaks favourites listed at 20/1 or less and three of the first ten in the betting are Japanese and Australian.

Notwithstanding the feed contamination issue that befell Ballydoyle last year, would Love have won the Arc on the prevailing soft ground? Having not seen a racecourse yet this season, she does still represent the best older horse option in the ante post market if you are prepared to risk that she is only even money to show up. I can see her going to the Breeders’ Cup instead if it is soft or one of the Ballydoyle three year olds turns out to be a good middle distance performer.

On available evidence before Epsom, I would not touch any of the three year olds for the Arc as this may turn out to be the fourth year on the bounce that the Classic generation have been mediocre.

 

Had to add Al Aasy before the price goes

 

Playing Devil's Advocate here as it seemed too good to be true. Having looked a bit deeper into the form:

Is it possible that Al Aasy is a bridle horse? He wasn't asked a question today, the time was slow and Logician definitely isn't slow (or wasn't). This was a well below par Logician

Last year
Al Aasy was beaten
- 10½L by Mishriff, in a fast time
- 8½L by Mogul, in a fast time

He won easily beating
- Cigoli by 10L, in a slow time
- Dawn Rising by 1¾L in a decent time


This year he has won easily beating
- Without A Fight by 4½L, in a good time *
- Thunderous, in a slow time

* Without A Fight then got beaten 14½L by Albaflora, easily, in slow time

What we haven't seen yet is how he gets on in a fast run race where he has to battle to win

He has only once run outside Newmarket and Newbury and that was at Goodwood where he ran inexcusably badly

On the plus side he is described as a big baby with bags of improvement in him. A horse can come on a bundle from 3 to 4 and if that is the case with Al Aasy and he is still improving then he is very exciting

Let's see how he gets on in the Coronation. Epsom may not see him in his best light. If he wins doing handstands he is red hot fav for the Arc. If he is exposed in a strongly run race against top opposition that will be disappointing

 

I was surprised that Tarnawa didn't head for the Arc de Triomphe last year, especially given the Aga Khan's family's penchant for winning the race.
She certainly looked a classy filly with a fine turn of foot.
As for Love, the authority of her two Classic wins compared favourably with any other filly who farmed those races, going right back to Sweet Solera, Altesse Royale, Mysterious, Oh So Sharp, &Co.
She may not have had the same electric turn of foot at a mile of say the Guineas winners Miesque, Hula Dancer, or Oh So Sharp, but her ability to sustain a high tempo at both distances mark her an outstanding dual Classic winner- certainly visually comparable to Oh So Sharp.
The problem is that we shall have to see if she and Tarnawa have trained on and developed further. If so, it will take a very good colt to lower their colours at Longchamp.

 

Difficult to reconcile the odds for the Coronation Cup and the Arc

 

Al Aasy now 20s for the Arc. Although somewhat disappointing today, the pair drew a long way clear. If Pyledriver hadn't been in that race, Al Aasy would now be fav for the Arc. So I think 20/1 ew could be worth an interest.

Not expecting the Derby/Oaks to throw up a contender but we shall see

 

........ and Pyledriver is a mouth watering 33/1

How ridiculous is that?

 

It's difficult to imagine that the ground got faster during the day. So what we have here is a 3yo filly running the same C&D in 0.44secs slower than the Coronation Cup, at level weights

In between, we had a 5yo handicapper (receiving 2lbs) running the 10f - Time: 2m 12.46s (slow by 6.86s). That means it took half a minute more to run the extra 2f. Presumably the first 2 fur of the 12f course, being uphill, accounts for that?

Snowfall now 5/1 fav for the Arc

 

I make that as about 3l behind the Coronation Cup. In the Arc the filly will get 10lbs, approx 6l. On very crude calculations, the Oaks winner would have finished 3l ahead of the Coronation Cup winner on WFA. I'm sure someone can be more precise

 

I think the Santa Barbara can be forgotten

 

Always a bad idea to post immediately after one big race on a day when there is more than one big race...

The headlines on Saturday morning will be “Snowfall in June”.

Referring back to the older horses, I am not sure that Al Aasy or Pyledriver liked Epsom. When the runner-up came to challenge it looked like he would go past and win going away; however, he found very little and the winner fought back like a terrier despite hanging on the camber. If Al Aasy had been on the rail and Pyledriver on the outside, he may have gone sideways allowing the Haggas horse to win.

At this stage I would hang fire on Al Aasy for the Arc and see where he goes next and what he does. He may turn out to be one of those small field bullies that is best when he gets everything his own way. If he ran in the Prix Foy with the usual married man’s gallop he could probably hose up. But if there were other British/Irish runners and it was not just a sprint in the straight it might be a different story.

I think Pyledriver will become the public horse because of the story but the bookies will be quite happy to lay him until he comes out and puts up a performance like last year’s Great Voltigeur against the big yards.

They will be back to the excuse book for Japan – only a Group 3 win since the 2019 Juddmonte. Mogul never went a yard so I wonder if something was amiss.

 

I think that a straight comparison of the times may be totally deceptive here.

Firstly, I think we can easily agree that the field ran further in the Oaks than the Coronation Cup because they stayed on the far side of the track in the latter race.

Secondly, Al Aasy and Pyledriver were both being hard driven throughout the final furlong of their duel whilst Snowfall was allowed to coast home under hands and heels while Frankie enjoyed the adulation of the crowd.

What may ultimately be more useful will be the sectional times as the Oaks may have been too fast early and definitely slowed up as they came down the hill towards Tattenham Corner. By the time they got to the two pole, three or four of the fancied fillies were just going up and down on the spot.

The Coronation Cup time could well be more reliable because the winner was never out of the first two.

That said the Arc is a race for three year old fillies. If Snowfall goes on from here, she will be hard to beat. In 24 hours time we will know whether there is a three year old colt up to the challenge.

 

That would make Snowfall's performance even better

 

In theory it does make her performance remarkable; however, if the early pace was suicidal on the easy ground, that would explain why so many of the fancied runners simply folded with a quarter of a mile to go.

I am always wary when a horse wins by a huge margin. It often means that the others were simply not good enough (quite possible this year) or that there is something about how the race was run. Given that there has been little evidence seen so far this season that the Classic generation are anything but moderate, Snowfall could be this year’s Enable – head and shoulders above moderate rivals. I wrote off her Musidora win because I thought that Moore stole the race but that now does not look so much the case.

When she is next seen, on a different type of track, it will be interesting to see who re-opposes and what tactics are adopted. I do of course assume that next time she runs Ryan Moore will be aboard. We know that Snowfall is adaptable tactics wise.

No surprise based on her two year old form that Snowfall does not hold an Arc entry but I am sure Coolmore can dip in their pockets.

 

I'm assuming the ground dried out and it was faster today. 6 secs though? Or did they not run as far?

 

After quite a few middle distance races recently and a couple of key clashes between the generations, the betting on the Arc is starting to take a more justifiable shape, notably indicating the paucity of the home defence.

7/2 Snowfall*
5/1 Adayar*
7/1 Hurricane Lane
8/1 St Mark’s Basilica, Tarnawa, Wonderful Tonight
11/1 Love
12/1 Contrail
14/1 Mishriff
16/1 Chrono Genesis, Saiydabad

(* needs to be supplemented)

With the ground almost certain to ride soft (as we would consider soft in this country), I still do not see Love even showing up; and it is hard to make a form case for her now after her performance in the King George.

Whilst we might have expected the betting to be dominated by Ballydoyle that has not transpired and only one of the two in the first half dozen in the betting would have been in anybody’s thoughts back in May when the entries closed.

Writing before the ratings of Adayar and Hurricane Lane are known after their exploits in the last fortnight, the Dermot Weld trained, Aga Khan owned mare Tarnawa appears to be the top rated horse in the market principles having not set foot on the track yet this term. It looks like she is being prepared for an end of season campaign as she won the Prix Vermeille (over Arc course and distance) followed by the Prix de l’Opera and the Breeders’ Cup Turf in 2020. She is entered in the Yorkshire Oaks, so it is not impossible she could start out on the Knavesmire.

Whilst the three year old filly rightly heads the betting, William Buick might be left with the decision of whether to stick with the Derby winner Adayar, who he deserted at Epsom, or go with the Irish Derby winner Hurricane Lane, who he rode at Epsom.

Interesting that Adayar and Hurricane Lane are 9/4 joint favourites for the St Leger as they surely will not both show up on Town Moor but the bookies are pricing odds of 5/8 that one of them wins it. Could this be the year that the St Leger – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe double is achieved?

 

Nothing better to do this evening in the pub, so trawled a few racing sites for possible Arc info.

It looks like Mare Australis is unlikely to show up as her ankle injury makes the Andre Fabre trained filly looks less likely to be ready in time.

Japanese filly Lei Papale definitely will not be travelling.

But the most significant news is that Tarnawa will be starting her campaign either at Cork (Give Thanks Stakes) or Leopardstown (Ballyroan Stakes) in August. I had rather hoped she would start in the Yorkshire Oaks, but that may now turn into a Ballydoyle benefit for Snowfall or Love. Since she won the Cork race last year, I think I know where Tarnawa will be seen.

So do not be tempted by the 20/1 Lei Papale, 33/1 Mare Australis; and I cannot see the 'white' Japanese filly Sodashi (33/1) in Paris either.

I was not surprised that bookies left Wonderful Tonight at 8/1 after her Goodwood win. She only did what was expected so she probably needs it to be really soft to win the Arc; but good luck to her connections.