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Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2022

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by QuarterMoonII, Jul 3, 2022.

  1. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Apologies for being so sloppy in starting this thread: the original entries closed on the 11th May and I never even bothered to check. As it was, there were 86 entries which is a lot less than in previous years but I do wonder how much of that is down to the big owners simply thinking that the supplementary fee is chicken feed if your horse is good enough. Also of course this year it might simply be that they had little that they fancied on juvenile form. Since 49 of the 86 were older horses that does seem quite probable.

    So who has the most entries?

    6 Charlie Appleby – including Adayar and Hurricane Lane
    6 John & Thady Gosden – including Mishriff and Emily Upjohn
    5 Jean-Claude Rouget – including Vadeni and Al Hakeem
    4 Andre Fabre – including Ancient Rome
    4 Francis-Henri Graffard – including Sweet Lady and Baiykara
    4 Aidan O’Brien – including Stone Age, Point Lonsdale and Luxembourg
    4 Joseph O’Brien – including State Of Rest

    The forfeit dates are 27/28th September with supplementaries on 29th September and the race 2nd October.

    A look at the names in the initial entries shows quite a few ‘big names’; however, many of them are not going to show and those that are listed will only be present if it is a weak year so they have a chance of overachieving.

    Mare Australis is now in the care of Andre Fable but the big names in the older horses are Torquator Tasso, Adayar, Hurricane Lane, Sealiway and Alenquer. The Japanese older horse contingent consists of Panthalassa, Unicorn Lion, Deep Bond, Stay Foolish, Shahryar, and Titleholder; whilst the Japanese three year olds are My Lyka and Do Duece.

    Having posted this thread to date, we have already seen many of the early season races for the older horses and we are certainly short of clues. In terms of the big name horses still in training, are we any clearer whether Mishriff (Gosden), Pyledriver (Miur/Grassick), Broome (O’Brien) and Eshaada (Varian) are likely to show up.

    Of the Classic generation, it is no surprise that impressive Derby winner Desert Crown heads the Arc market with Irish Derby victor Westover an 8/1 chance and Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn the shortest filly at 8/1 after the dismal showing of Oaks winner Tuesday in the Irish Derby (she is now 30 on Betfair). Vadeni is second in the market following his Eclipse win with no bookmakers quoting runner-up Mishriff.

    Last year’s winner Torquato Tasso is available at 33/1 with one firm to defend his crown, was well beaten in a Group 2 race at Baden Baden on his 2022 return but subsequently won the Hansa-Preis at Hamburg for the second year. He holds an entry in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes but is he more likely to wait for the Grosser Preis von Berlin in August and take last year’s route to Longchamp?

    In one of the most competitive Grand Prix de Saint Cloud line-ups that I can remember, 2021 St Leger and Irish Derby winner Hurricane Lane took on Lone Eagle (2021 Irish Derby runner-up), Andre Fabre’s Mare Australis (won Grand Prix de Chantilly last time beating Bubble Gift), Aidan O’Brien’s High Definition, Third Realm (beat Lone Eagle easily in Listed race) and Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista (won all five starts in 2021). The result speaks for itself: all credit to Frankel as he had the first two home with Alpinista and Baratti but that has to hugely damage the prospects of the others – especially Hurricane Lane who ran like a drain (again). Alpinista now 16/1, Hurricane Lane now 25/1, the others longer.
     
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  2. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    No Coolmore runners in King George, and I struggle to see a serous one in the Arc.
     
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  3. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    There is no point beating about the bush: the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2022 was a very unhelpful race with respect to the Arc.

    I think that Torquator Tasso’s objective was always going to be the defence of his crown at Longchamp and it looked like he did not let himself down on the ground at Ascot and he will obviously get more acceptable conditions in Paris; however, he is not going to be an outsider this year benefitting from the total carnage going on around him like the 2021 renewal.

    Frankie’s post race excuse for Emily Upjohn at Ascot was that they raced too fast early for his filly and she did not get the trip because of that (does not make sense) whilst Thady Gosden simply could not explain it. Colin Keane reportedly stated that Westover ran too freely, which does at least suggest that taking the lead ten furlongs from home was not his intention.

    Bookmaker reaction to the race was fairly predictable:
    5/1 Desert Crown (remains favourite)
    8/1 Titleholder (Japan’s best chance according to the bookies)
    10/1 Torquator Tasso (has shortened to 8/1 with many layers)
    12/1 Vadeni
    12/1 Alpinista
    16/1 Free Wind, Pyledriver (14/1 with most layers), Onesto
    20/1 Hurricane Lane, Luxembourg, Adayar, Westover (drifting), Hitotsu, Do Deuce
    25/1 Baaeed (they must be kidding), State Of Rest, Emily Upjohn (drifting), Verry Elleegant
    28/1 Tuesday (drifting), Mishriff (drifting)​
     
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  4. Saf

    Saf Not606 Godfather+NOT606 Poster of the year 2023

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    Good to soft or softer and I'll be backing TT to double up.
     
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  5. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Quarter Moon, I applaud your contributions but you must be very brave- or bored- to preview this year’s Arc, especially on the back of yet another diabolical Group 1 ( yesterday’s King George) - supposed class horses strung out like washing behind what was really a Group 2 animal.
    This years three year old colts and fillies are dire, and the older horses aren’t much better, either.
    It all adds up to a desperate looking Arc field that might be livened up by going over hurdles! <laugh>
     
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  6. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Tam, I appreciate your pessimism – I am not sure that is what I mean – but there is still Desert Crown, just like Shergar he cannot help it if he is the only decent three year old around!

    As a form follower, quite frankly, the fillies look nothing special. The jury is not entirely out as Emily Upjohn might be better than Frankie’s excuses – never write a horse off on one race.

    I have run this Arc thread for a number of years and it has been quite entertaining – that is the point of the Forum to get people ‘arguing’ or discussing – but we do appear to have a problem this year in that all the possibles seem to be screwing up!
     
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  7. Kawada_Ginger

    Kawada_Ginger New Member

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    Surely, this is the big chance for Titleholder but I think it's too hard for him to run from start to finish in the lead. No one could win in this style from Helissio.
    Also, Do Deuce has a enough chance, too.
     
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  8. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Does all look a bit ordinary: shades of 1966 with Charlottown and Sodium topping the bill in the UK. Still, we did win the World Cup.

    One thing that can't be taken away from Pyledriver is his consistency. Over the last 3 seasons he's been near on the best 12f horse in training. He didn't like Epsom first time, been unlucky a few times and didn't get the Leger trip. My view is that he could have gone into Saturday's race unbeaten this season but for two ill-judged rides from Dettori. He boxed him in at Meydan and then was too easy when trying to lead at Epsom.

    It's unfortunate that Adayer hasn't come to hand early this year and it's also unfortunate that Desert Crown didn't make Ascot. Too early to write everyone off yet but I know what you mean.
     
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  9. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    One who does interest me, re the Arc, is the 4YO Frankel colt, Baratti. Trained by Andre Fabre he made his Group 1 bow earlier in the month when 2nd in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. What makes this performance even more meritorious is that his handler has since reported that Baratti was not 100% ready that day having met with a setback during his preparation. Also, on breeding this horse is some standout as not only is he by Frankel but a half-brother to two Group/Grade 1 winners in Byword and Proviso.

    I've no idea when Baratti will next appear but wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't until Arc Trials weekend. I can't see the 50/1 currently available, re the Arc, contracting much (if at all) before then and may certainly put on the old betting boots if Baratti is put in an Arc trial in early Sept.
     
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  10. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Desert Crown does not owe me a penny and as long as it isn't run in a bog (always possible in the Arc) I will stick with Sir Michael Stoute's Derby winner. Not his fault if nothing else good enough to give him a race? Definite 'saver' is last year's winner Torquator Tasso. This German horse is pretty darn useful, and probably handles any going.
     
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  11. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Hi Bustino. Aren't you being a bit unfair to Charlottown and Sodium? They weren't the best three year olds in the sixties but , from what I remember, Charlottown was a pretty consistent animal, winning several good races- apart from the Derby. Sodium was in and out but, nevertheless, was a dual Classic winner and ran that very good filly, Aunt Edith, pretty close in the King George. I certainly think she would have made short work of this year's current crop.
     
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  12. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Suppose I'm comparing it with the next 6 years.
     
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  13. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Desert Crown probably out for the rest of the season with a minor injury. When it's healed there will certainly not be enough time to get him fit enough to compete in the Arc, etc. Will be back as a 4-year-old however, which is good news.
     
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  14. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I disagree with your assertion that it is too difficult to make all the running at Longchamp. If Titleholder is a genuine front runner in Japan then it is more a case of his being good enough to see off the rest of the field.

    It would be difficult because in the likely event of a maximum field, the draw would be significant for a horse that wants to lead as he would have to expend energy at the beginning of the race to get position if he were out wide. The way that the Arc is run probably precludes setting a moderate pace and quickening off it because most other French races are run at a married man’s gallop followed by a sprint to the line so a proper front runner would need to set an even pace and quicken off it.

    I have seen plenty of horses make all the running at Longchamp in the past but it does have to be said that in the small fields that usually prevail on Arc Trials Day, going to the front and winning is not difficult, especially since half the French runners have had a summer break and are there to get warmed up for the main event three weeks later. In 2010, John Gosden’s Duncan made virtually all in the Prix Foy except when briefly headed by a Japanese raider early in the straight; Aidan O’Brien’s Ruler Of The World made all in 2014, Anthony Van Dyck made virtually all in 2020 and the Japanese horse Deep Bond made all last year. In 2019, John Gosden’s Star Catcher made all in the Prix Vermeille under Frankie. I cannot think of a Prix Niel winner that made all but there probably was one – it is just easier to remember more recent years!
     
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  15. Kawada_Ginger

    Kawada_Ginger New Member

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    I want to tell the reason about my opinion.
    When I watched "King George", I got the impression that tough European horses are on the decline.
    The number of horses that can cope with the put on a long-spurt, picking up the pace on the road even if it can handle heavy ground, has decreased considerably.
    Here's a chance for the Title holder to win.

    He got 3 titles in Hanshin race course.
    In Tenno Sho (Spring), he became front runner and ran last 3F faster than any other horses in the race. Other horses could not keep their stamina because he paces up before the 4th corner.
    In Japanese horse racing, "long sputtering" is the theory in Hanshin 2400⤴︎m.
    However, I feel European horse racing has " slow pace and fight on final straight" as a theory, so it is uncertain whether he can handle it or not.
    Moreover, Torquator Tasso is strong in long sputtering race very much. There are some types of front runner, but he allowed other horses to arive fast in Durby. The race was "slow pace and fight on final straight".

    I'm sorry for my poor English.
     
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  16. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    Don't worry about the English, Kawada_Ginger, your input is appreciated. Welcome to the horseracing section of not606. <ok>
     
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  17. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Your English is fine – much better than my non-existent Japanese!

    We do now seem to be agreeing to some extent. You originally suggested that it would be too difficult for a horse to make all the running to win the Arc. I disagreed with that and gave some examples of European horses that had made all the running to win races at Longchamp.

    So if Titleholder is a genuine front runner and he can set a good pace and quicken off it, I do think that he can win the race. It then becomes a case of whether he is good enough and what stall position he draws.

    I get the impression that Japanese races are run much more like American races in that there is emphasis on pace from the gate, which is different to most European racing.

    The Arc is not run like most French races because a large proportion of the field are not French, so the British and Irish horses usually ensure that the race is not slowly run and does not just turn into a sprint in the straight (“long sputtering”). Longchamp only has one long sweeping turn, unlike the circuit at Hanshin.
     
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  18. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    The more I read the comments on this thread, the more I like the chance of last year's shock winner doubling-up. I feel he will be even better if there's a bit of cut in the ground on the Arc race day. I am not too worried about Torquator Tasso's first run of this season at Baden-Baden.Won NTO in a Group-2 at Hamburg. The chestnut is certainly a fine-looking entire; and very stoutly-bred on the German side. At the moment I just cannot see me changing my mind, but we'll see! :emoticon-0100-smile

    Darn good thread, Quarter MoonII, keep it up! <ok>
     
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    Last edited: Aug 3, 2022
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  19. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Swannie, I tend to agree about Torquator Tasso, but he would be the only entire to win the race in successive years in the race’s 102 year’s history- at four and five years of age,
    although the outstanding filly, Corrida, won the race in successive years as a four and five year old- having run third at three.
    The other six winners in successive years all completed their wins at 3 and 4 years.
    Also, the illustrious company he’d be joining would be mouth-watering.
    Nevertheless, good luck to him. Whatever the strength of the opposition, it would be a great achievement. <ok>
     
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  20. Kawada_Ginger

    Kawada_Ginger New Member

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    Alpinista won Yorkshire Oaks easily. She got a good position and run away from Tuesday.
    Tuesday
    is doubtful because of Westover and Emily Upjohn, but I think she is enough strong.
     
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