Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2019

Late out of the blocks with the Arc entries thread this season. They closed on May 15th but I completely forgot...

Just the 81 entered at the initial entry stage when usually there are over a hundred. Perhaps that tells us something about aspirations from some of the big yards in Europe. Or perhaps the big players simply think that if something crops up during the season they are quite happy to pay to supplement the horse on the Thursday before the race.

The entry is split between 33 older horse and 48 three year olds. There are 8 Japanese entries. No real surprises in the breakdown of the entries.

Trainers:
16 Aidan O’Brien
12 Andre Fabre
6 John Gosden
4 Alain de Royer Dupre
4 Charlie Appleby
4 Saeed bin Suroor
3 William Haggas
2 Jean-Claude Rouget

Owners:
13 Godolphin
12 Coolmore
5 Wertheimer & Frere
4 Flaxman Holdings (Niarchos family)
2 Hamdan Al Maktoum

The most obvious amongst the initial entry are:
ENABLE
STRADIVARIUS
CRYSTAL OCEAN
MASAR
KEW GARDENS
SEA OF CLASS

I will not list any of the three year olds, although if you look at the betting for the Derby and the Oaks as well as their French equivalents, you can probably get the more obvious of them; however, I suspect that TOO DARN HOT will not be taking up his entry.

Just for reference, the declaration dates this year are as follows:

30/09/2019 First Forfeit Stage
01/10/2019 Second Forfeit Stage
02/10/2019 Supplementaries
02/10/2019 Probable Entries
03/10/2019 Jockey Declarations​

To find the full entry, go to http://www9.france-galop.com/FGWeb/domaines/courses/courses_calendrier.aspx and put in Oct 6 as the start and end search dates then click on PARISLONGCHAMP.

 

I see Sir Dragonet has an entry

 

I mentioned Sir Dragonet for the Arc earlier on somewhere on the Forum. It's simply because he is so short for the Epsom Derby, yet 20/1 for the Arc. No way he stays 20/1 if he wins the Epsom Derby.

Siyarafina is a filly I have backed for the Prix Diane but she missed the French Guineas after working poorly. Not sure she will stay a mile and a half myself but you can get 25/1 if confident.

 

It does not look like there has been any massive reaction to the two Epsom Classics by the bookies.

Enable is still available at 9/2 as the favourite, followed by Sea Of Class at 7/1 according to OddsChecker.

The general shortest priced runner from any either race is Broome at 16/1 with Sir Dragonet at 20/1 and Madhmoon at 25/1 as well as Anapurna. You can have 33/1 after that for the likes of Pink Dogwood and Skybet are offering 40/1 Anthony Van Dyck, although I suspect that is an error as he is 14/1 elsewhere, which would seem more realistic for a Derby winner given that last year’s winner Masar is 25/1.

 

Anthony Van Dyck was given a RPR of 120 for winning, a figure described as being below average for the race. They were in a heap in behind him. The Oaks looked mediocre. I doubt Anapurna is much better than Group 3 class. Unsurprising that there was little appeal to punters for the Epsom winners.

Enable is due to return to action in the Eclipse but I think that will be short enough for her. She's a true 12F horse to my eye. I had felt Old Persian might make up into an Arc challenger but he ran flat in Coronation Cup after travelling well into the race. Right now it's a race that is making little appeal to me from a punting angle.

 

I've just had another look at the Derby. Anthony Van Dyck's run wasn't all that bad. The pace was pretty solid as only 4 Derbies in the last 20 years have been run at a faster clip and the horse was twice impeded in the straight. They were not bad incidents, but they did cost him momentum.

In the all pink on the fence.

 

Waldgiest wins the arc this year.

 

Sir Dragonet will be more suited to Longchamp than Epsom. I think he had a hard race in the Derby on ground too fast so it will be interesting to see if he lines up for the Irish Derby. If the ground is fast I suspect he will skip it

 

Zarkallani!

 

9/2 Enable is a very fair price, will end up Evens again if she gets there, there appears to be absolutely nothing around with the class to trouble her at 12f. Magical and Sea Of Class wont beat Enable if shes at her best.

 

Thats a very bold statement regarding Enable and Sea Of Class there Boris. She ran her very close in last years renewal albeit with the WFA but its worth remembering that it was the 3yo's first season on the racecourse and surely you would want to wait and see how she has progressed from 3 to 4. I dont look for trainer comments so have no idea what Haggas has had to say but she could be so much better this year.

 

I thought Enable was below her best in the Arc Stick, and I didn't think Sea Of Class was as unlucky as some made out. For me Enable is one of the greats and Sea of class is just a good filly.

As you say, need to see how Sea Of Class has progressed but she will need to have improved just to compete with Enable again off levels.

 

Some people will think I'm nuts but the only horse I was afraid of in a softish ground Arc was Cracksman (the most underrated horse imo). This year it will depend if Enable holds her form. If she proves to be as good as ever, she will be odds on and I'll have to think about Sir Dragonet for a place

 

I don't feel Enable was as good last season as she was in her 3YO year.

Her Arc win was an edge of the seat job and her Breeders Cup win saw second favourite Waldgeist very disappointing in finishing behind 80/1 and 100/1 shots, leaving a virtual match with Magical, as the pair fought it out nine lengths clear of the third.

The Racing Post actually gave Enable's best performance as the seasonal debut beating of Crystal Ocean at Kempton but for all that Stoute's horse seems to have a big following and was once rated 129, he has only won one Group 2 race and five Group 3 races in addition to his maiden success. The September Stakes saw Crystal Ocean having to concede 8 lbs to Enable and it was a two horse race in reality, with the other two runners totally out of their depth. It was a race she had to win to have any chance in the Arc and she duly obliged.

I know it was a season where Enable had a setback but having sweated on the Arc bet last year, I am not sure this time around. She is bidding to make History with a hat-trick of wins and in her favour is a weak looking 3YO middle distance crop but old age and previous trends are against her. I also don't like the idea of Enable in the Eclipse. She has stuck to the mile and a half trip and looked on occasions as if she needs it. Her only defeat came at 10F when I was on board her stablemate Shutter Speed for that race AND the Oaks but it was Enable who went on to Epsom glory. I would think that a quick ground Eclipse would be as good a way of getting Enable beaten, especially on seasonal debut.

Would defeat in the Eclipse see Enable lengthen for the Arc? I could imagine a bad defeat almost derailing her Arc challenge entirely but with her being 4/1 for the Eclipse and 9/2 for the Arc we see a set of circumstances where it is hard to see what sort of run could see Enable beaten in the Eclipse, yet go appreciably shorter for the Arc in the aftermath?

I don't like the Eclipse as a starting point for Enable and would rather watch how she performs there before deciding on her prospects of the three-in-a-row.

 

I don't understand that route either. She is better over 12f with some give in the ground. I wouldn't want to see her running over 10f, especially if the ground if fast

 

She will be absolutely fine at 10f, tough ask to win an Eclipse first time up though. I didnt expect to see her at Ascot and I dont expect to see her at Sandown either unless it turns up a very weak race which is unlikely as at least 2 of the top 3 from the Prince of Wales will show up. Gosden will only be interested in 1 race, the Arc, and will likely give the press 5 different comeback races for her before she actually shows up. It would be nice see her running in the Eclipse, King George, Juddmonte and Arc, but dont be surprised if all we get is Kempton and Longchamp again.

 

What odds would we get on Enable never running at 10F again?

 

I forgot to update the betting situation after Royal Ascot but looking to see how short Enable was after winning the Eclipse reminded me to make a post.

Absolutely no surprise that Enable is getting very short because it seems that all her potential European opponents have seen a racecourse and none of them look up to it. There may well be a maximum field in October as something has to finish second and third or she could be drawn 19 and the French box her in.

Latest odds according to Oddschecker:

9/4 Enable
8/1 Sea Of Class
11/1 Sottsass
12/1 Crystal Ocean, Japan
20/1 Anthony Van Dyck, Secret Walk, Sir Dragonet, Rey De Oro*
25/1 Masar, Anapurna*, Iridessa*, Newspaperofrecord*, Channel*, Commes*
33/1 Too Darn Hot, Waldgeist, Sauve Richard*, Pink Dogwood, Siyarafina, Lah Ti Dar, Broome, Ghaiyyath, Hermosa

(* would have to be supplemented)

 

The Racing Post had Enable running today to just 2 lbs short of her best run from last season. That top rated run was her seasonal debut win by three and a half lengths from Crystal Ocean and that 126 rated effort was ahead of the Arc run (122) and Breeders Cup effort (124)

The Racing Post have Enable's best ever run as her first Arc victory, where they rated her 129. With Gosden declaring that she was only 85% to 90% fit today it seems fanciful that she has run to 124 today. Assessing today's Eclipse it looked to me that Zabeel Prince failed miserably to stay the distance. Telecaster ran a howler and also weakened. The pacemaker Hunting Horn unsurprisingly weakened after setting a strong gallop and Mustashry seemed to run out of petrol after travelling well enough at one stage. Danceteria has run a PB on the face of it but did he just stay on past weakening horses? Regal Reality played up before the race and it must have taken something out of him covering the whole race distance on the way to post.

Overall I just have a suspicion that a 120 performance might have won that today and gives her something to build on going forward.

The early 3/1 after the Eclipse was just lazy firms slow to update their odds and they predictably fell into line. Ladbrokes are the standout at 9/4 and I reckon that id value purely because the opposition is non-existent. Most of those listed above haven't got a prayer in the Arc. The Derby and Oaks were awful renewals this year and the older horses are very poor indeed. Crystal Ocean will have some fans but it was a weak Prince Of Wales he won. Sottsass has some believers and Jean-Claude Rouget has belief that he is decent candidate for the Arc but the French Derby looked fairly average and the horse has stamina questions for me. The Prix Niel on 15th September is said to be the target for Sottsass.

There are tons of horses quoted for the Arc but if Enable is in the field on the day there is only going to be one winner and that is her. There are just swathes of out of form and simply not good enough horses in the field. 9/4 is going to look massive by October.