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Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2018

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by QuarterMoonII, May 26, 2018.

  1. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    First entries have closed for the showpiece of the French flat racing season, back at its home at Longchamp on the Bois de Boulogne. A total of 95 have chosen to take the cheap entry route that keeps them in the race until at least the forfeit stage on October 1st.

    You will not be surprised by the representation of trainers:
    18 – Aidan O’Brien
    13 – Andre Fabre
    6 – John Gosden
    6 – Charlie Appleby
    4 – Saeed bin Suroor
    4 – Francis-Henri Graffard
    3 – Alain de Royer Dupre​

    Equally, the top owners list looks quite familiar:
    19 – Godolphin (UK and French)
    18 – Coolmore (various combinations)
    5 – Al Shaqab Racing
    3 – S.A. Aga Khan
    3 – Khalid Abdullah
    3 – Wertheimer & Frere​

    There are five Japanese trained entries: Kiseki (4yo colt), Clincher (4yo colt), Gendarme (3yo colt, US bred), Satono Walkure (3yo filly) and Lucky Lilac (3yo filly).

    All of the current big names that you might expect are included in the entries: Enable, Cracksman, Cliffs Of Moher, Hawkbill, Defoe, Olmedo, Saxon Warrior, Masar, Roaring Lion, Happily, Magical, Laurens and Lah Ti Dar.

    The latest odds on Oddschecker are scarcely a surprise, the market dominated by inmates at the usual yards:

    11/4 Cracksman
    6/1 Enable
    8/1 Saxon Warrior
    20/1 Lah Ti Dar, Rhododendron
    25/1 Defoe, Ulysses
    33/1 Bateel, Brametot, Crystal Ocean, Expert Eye, Hydrangea, Kiseki, Lucky Lilac, Olmedo

    Expect changes after what is jokingly now called The Epsom Festival...
     
    #1
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Cheers QM. Always nice to get this race in focus
     
    #2
  3. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    Ulysses still in training then?
    Unless Saxon Warrior turns up here and is as good as he has looked so far Cracksman is a cert for me.
     
    #3
  4. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Do not be in too much of a hurry to take the Arc betting at face value. Last year the betting in the middle of the summer had a couple of horses from the Guineas in it that were dropping back to sprinting but held Arc entries because the forfeit stage is not until October.

    Neither Ulysses nor Brametot hold an entry in the Arc; and as far as I am aware both were retired to stud. If somebody put a bet on them six months ago, they will still be in some bookies’ lists because a non-runner is money in the bank.

    In the betting I think it is interesting that currently Saxon Warrior is the only single-figure Ballydoyle candidate.

    I do not see Cracksman as a cert because Enable may show up on the back of a shortened season; or a decent three year old filly might turn up with all the weight concessions.
     
    #4
  5. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    It will be interesting to see which one Frankie chooses, if they both run. I think he will go for Cracksman.
     
    #5
  6. No Hazapor? Might change come Saturday I hope!
     
    #6
  7. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Hazapour is not currently entered for the Arc but I am sure that the Aga Khan can afford the supplementary fee if Frankie wins the Derby on him.
     
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  8. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    So was Nijinsky in 1970, and look what happened. Cracksman, as good as he is, can only dream of being a Nijinsky.
     
    #8
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  9. I love how we all defend certain horses as though they were our own flesh and blood <laugh> Triple crown and Arc would have been something though eh?

    Cracksman is a top class Colt but we still don't know how good this year's three year olds are - let's see what July brings.
     
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  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Don't forget though Swanny, Nijinsky won the St Leger. How many have won the St Leger and gone on to win the Arc in the same year. I may be wrong but I think it might be zero
     
    #10

  11. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Well, as I'm holding a 33-1 voucher about Saxon King, I am desperately hoping they go for the money instead of the triple crown glory! Obviously he'd have to win The Derby first!

    When he won the Racing Post last year, I was very impressed with his relentless gallop, and decided pretty much on the spot that he was a 10-12f horse, then I looked at his breeding more closely and see that his sire was a stayer, but the dam a 7f specialist - tried at a mile she was third in the Guineas behind Homecoming Queen. So based simply on breeding you'd think that 14f would be well within his range - and that may be enough to convince connections to take him to Doncaster.

    But - until that decision is made - I'm keeping everything crossed :)
     
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  12. Janabelle13

    Janabelle13 Well-Known Member

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    yes zero
    Nijinsky also won the Irish Derby, King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes and before the St Leger suffered a bout of ringworm
     
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  13. SwanHills

    SwanHills Well-Known Member

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    ………..and Lester's ride on Nijinsky in the Arc wasn't exactly his greatest? This great horse almost brought off the impossible.
     
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  14. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    It was Lester who lost the Arc on Petite Étoile too
     
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  15. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    No real surprise that the events at Epsom shook up the Arc betting. Anybody still in the Saxon Warrior fan club can have 14/1...

    3/1 Cracksman
    6/1 Enable
    12/1 Masar
    14/1 Forever Together, Saxon Warrior
    16/1 Ulysses
    20/1 Lah Ti Dar, Rhododendron
    25/1 Crystal Ocean, Windstoss
    33/1 Bramêtot, Defoe, Expert Eye, Hydrangea, Kiseki, Olmedo, Rabdan, Rostropovich, Shahnaza, Study Of Man
     
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  16. Naturally High will be in the betting when he hoses up at Chantilly <whistle>

    Thanks for posting these updates btw.
     
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  17. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    going to take the 40/1 Shahnaza with Hills and put this on yesterday

    please log in to view this image
     
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  18. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Missed the 40/1 by about 5 mins, have to settle for 25s <wah>

    I'll be surprised if we see Enable on a racecourse again and Masar wont be winning an Arc imo, been out in Dubai and 4 runs already with plans for the Irish Derby and King George. Think these two French 3yos will end up very prominent in the betting and the main dangers to Cracksman.
     
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  19. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    After the totally meaningless Prix Du Jockey Club, the betting now reads pretty much the same except:

    16/1 Capri (– has somebody had a bet?)
    20/1 Study Of Man

    I personally hope they can get Enable back on track because the three year olds (so far) do not look great...
     
    #19
  20. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    The changes to the Arc market brought about by Royal Ascot results were all pretty predictable.

    Anybody that thinks that Cracksman is a 130-rated horse should be getting on at 7/1 as he has course form at Longchamp and the ground is unlikely to be fast on Arc Sunday. All that you have to hope is that he has got his attention on the job and not on the fillies and mares. If they take drastic measures to solve that problem he is ineligible for the Arc.

    11/2 Enable
    7/1 Cracksman
    12/1 Masar
    14/1 Crystal Ocean, Poets Word, Saxon Warrior
    16/1 Capri, Study Of Man
    20/1 Forever Together, Hunting Horn
    25/1 Lah Ti Dar, Magic Wand, Ulysses, Waldgeist, Windstoss

    Irish Derby contender Dee Ex Bee is available at 50/1.
     
    #20

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