When original Arc entries closed on 15th May, there were 106 horses. The next forfeit date is Tuesday 1st October. Anybody not entered at present can be supplemented on Thursday 3rd October. Without listing all 106, the pertinent information distills as follows: Ages â 61 three year olds; 31 four year olds; 8 five year olds; 5 six year olds; 1 seven year old. The following ten trainers constitute sixty of the entries: Aidan OâBrien - 12 entries (8 three year olds) Alain de Royer-Dupre - 7 entries (5 three year olds) Andre Fabre - 15 entries (10 three year olds) Andreas Wohler - 3 entries (2 three year olds) Ed Dunlop - 3 entries (0 three year olds) Elie Lellouche - 2 entries (2 three year olds) Jean-Claude Rouget - 3 entries (3 three year olds) Mikel Delzangles - 5 entries (3 three year olds) Saeed bin Suroor - 7 entries (2 three year olds) Sir Michael Stoute - 3 entries (3 three year olds) Here is how the betting looks on 16th July (src: Oddschecker): 6/1 Flintshire 13/2 Al Kazeem 7/1 Orfevre (Japan), Intello 10/1 Treve* 16/1 Gentildonna (Japan), Kizuna (Japan), Sky Lantern*, Trading Leather 20/1 Alive Alive Oh*, Encke, Esoterique*, Magician, Manndawi, Novellist, Remote*, Ruler Of The World, St Nicholas Abbey 25/1 Ocovango, Telescope 33/1 Galileo Rock*, Maxios, Morandi, Sky Hunter, Dunaden, Libertarian*, Lucky Speed*, Masterstroke, Riposte*, Saint Baudolino, Sapphire*, Shikarpour, Toronado* 40/1 Hillstar, Ridasiyna 50/1 Battle Of Marengo, Camelot, Chopin, Liber Nauticus, Mars, Moth, Pastorius (* = needs to be supplemented) Notable other entries: Dawn Approach, Just The Judge, Kingsbarns, Mutin, Nakayama Knight (Japan), Saonois, The Fugue, Wild Coco Once the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes has been run this betting could get shaken up.
Needs a decent draw and to take it up inside the last 100m. Best horse in the race last year imo. If it comes up soft then I would put Novellist in with a decent chance
I'm not sure the draw matters as much with this one imo Ron, seems to be held up way off the pace and brought wide round the field in all his races regardless of the draw, ground did him more than the draw did last time. I'd almost like him to be drawn out wide again to get an extra few points on the price
Very true. He is a bit of a monkey though. Take him to the front too soon and he'll "**** off", or try too. But talent-wise he is exceptional.
Last year, Orfevre was drawn wide in eighteen, whilst the winner Solemia was drawn six. He was the best horse in the race but the bottomless ground was his undoing; he got stuck in the mud in the last hundred yards and the filly caught him. He does have a reputation for downing tools in front at home in Japan but more of a concern would be reports about his well-being. If he lines up for the Prix Foy on 15th September at Longchamp, that would be the point at which I would be looking at his Arc prospects. As it stands right now, the record of French-trained three-year-old colts points squarely to Andre Fabre's Grand Prix de Paris winner Flintshire, following the Rail Link route that presumably means the Prix Niel next. Shame we missed the 16/1; he is now only 6/1.
With the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes not going to Cirrus Des Aigles, the shake-up of the Arc betting predictably saw Novellist join the favourites whilst the others took a walk in the betting: From Saturday morning to Saturday evening the best odds changed as follows (src: Oddschecker): 6/1 Flintshire, Novellist (from 20/1) 13/2 Al Kazeem 8/1 Orfevre (Japan), Treve* 9/1 Intello 16/1 Kizuna (Japan), Telescope, Triple Threat 20/1 Magician, Remote*, Encke, Esoterique* 25/1 Ruler Of The World, Manndawi, Alive Alive Oh* 33/1 Morandi, Dunaden, Ocovango, Sky Hunter, Chicquita*, Trading Leather (from 20/1), Sapphire*, Silasol, Penglai Pavilion, Shikarpour, Masterstroke, Galileo Rock*, Lucky Speed*, Riposte* 40/1 Ridasiyna, The Fugue, Meandre 50/1 Hillstar (no change), Pastorius, Mars, Battle Of Marengo, Camelot, Saint Baudolino, Very Nice Name* (no change), Libertarian* (* = needs to be supplemented)
Looks a decent race this year if the main protagonists turn up. Novellist, Flintshire, Al Kazeem are all decent horses. Orfevre will be there or thereabouts if he gets the right draw. That's the main thing though about all these horses chances. If you get drawn high you have such a difficult time of things either running much further than everything else in the race or having to wait out the back for a series of gaps to open up. There will be instances every once in a while where a talented horse gets the gaps and things drop right but it's such a penalty that there's no way that you could be confident of winning a race from a high berth.
Orfevre was drawn wide when just touched off in last year’s race. He was the best horse in a mediocre running and got stuck in the bottomless ground. The weather may not be his only problem. He had been due to make his return in Japan at the end of June but was scratched after a late setback. Punters who fancy Flintshire or Novellist for the Arc might be best advised to secure the best odds available now. Reportedly Novellist’s next race will be in Berlin (without Johnny Murtagh who cannot ride in Germany) whilst Flintshire will head for the Prix Niel. The grounds for securing the odds now are simple. In the Racing Post it was reported that the other market principal, Al Kazeem may be going to York for the Juddmonte International followed by the Champion Stakes and giving Longchamp a miss. Also, Andre Fabre has not yet committed Intello to the big step up in trip and he has Flintshire, Ocovango and Triple Threat amongst the market leaders.
How funny would it be if after all the problems Goldophin have had if Steroided up Encke bowls up and wins the arc
The main problem that Godolphin face with Encke is the six month ban. He is facing a very truncated season so it looks like one race and then straight to the Arc for him. I think I am right in saying that Sunday's Deauville conditions race winner Penglai Pavilion (33/1) runs in the Godolphin French colours for Andre Fabre. None of the bookies on Oddschecker is quoting a price for Kingsbarns but he is 74/1 on Betfair.
QM - I think Wooly was joking. And I know Ofevre was drawn high last year. Couldn't win. Draw again proves decisive.
He could have won Bob. If they had moved the winning post forward (ie shortening the race distance) about 10 metres he would have won. And if Solemia had not been running he would have been a 7l winner. I hope he is 100% because he is an exceptionally talented little monkey
Yep he could have won and I've no doubt he would of if drawn low but he was drawn high and didn't win just like almost every other horse drawn high at Longchamp. This isn't rocket science chaps. High draw = dramatically reduced chance of winning. Low draw gives horses like Solemia dramatically increased chances of winning.
If Solemia had been drawn wide.................. What will happen if all the horses with any chance are drawn high? Here's a challenge for someone. Calculate using a respectable set of ratings the finishing positions and distances, assuming no draw bias. Then using some statistical analysis of how the draw has affected results in the last 5 years where the ground conditions are the same, adjust the expected results and see what comes out.
Bloody hell Ron - we have jobs! The Solemia point is exactly what i'm getting at. She wouldn't have won if she'd been drawn high. That win was as much to do with the draw and jockey as it was to do with talent.
I figured Wooly was joking from the smiley face at the end but it seemed worth a comment. Orfevre was not beaten by the draw. If the ground had not been what we would describe as very heavy, he would have won. I was standing ten yards after the winning post and I walked across the course before racing and before the Prix de l’Abbaye. It rained heavily on Saturday evening/night. It was like glue and he got stuck in it. I should start a separate thread for this debate! It would be almost impossible to analyse the distances lost by horses drawn wide as a horse that wants to be held up at the back is going to deliberately miss the kick if drawn low but just lose some ground if drawn high, whilst a front runner drawn high has pretty much no chance. I have backed a couple ante post in the last few years that might as well have stayed in their boxes.
