Prix de Diane Preview

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Ron

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France
Prix de Diane Preview: Aga Khan to hold sway again

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By John Ingles -- published 13th June 2014

John Ingles takes you through the contenders for the French classic on Sunday.

"Remarkably, the last six winners of the Prix de Diane were all maintaining unbeaten records when winning at Chantilly."

The Grey Gatsby’s win in the Prix du Jockey Club a fortnight ago exposed some weakness among the current French three-year-old colts. The classic crop of French fillies are a different matter, though, as several have made a particularly good impression over the last couple of months which makes Sunday’s ‘French Oaks’, the Prix de Diane at Chantilly, a race to look forward to.

Miss France underlined the strength of the French fillies when beating her English counterparts in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, albeit in rather a substandard renewal and one which was run at just a modest pace. It could be argued, however, that Miss France did well to win at Newmarket given that she’s no miler on breeding; her dam Miss Tahiti, likewise trained by Andre Fabre, was actually second in the Prix de Diane. Fabre also gave the strong impression that the Guineas had been something of a bonus along the way when remarking straight afterwards that ‘the Prix de Diane has always been the goal’.

Miss France is not the only Guineas winner in the line-up as she meets Avenir Certain, the winner of the French equivalent. Avenir Certain kept her unbeaten record in the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches when stepping up from minor company to win in good style at Longchamp. She too will be going beyond a mile for the first time, and while she’s by Le Havre, winner of the Prix du Jockey Club, she didn’t shape as though in need of a longer trip at Longchamp, sealing her classic victory when quickening smartly into the lead over a furlong out but not extending her advantage in the closing stages.

That still looks the best form on offer, however, and it means Xcellence and Bawina have around four lengths to make up to turn the tables on Avenir Certain after finishing third and fourth respectively behind her at Longchamp. They too tackle a new trip but both are bred to stay. Xcellence, who had Miss France behind her when winning the Prix Imprudence in the spring, should have no problems at all on that score as she’s out of a half-sister to her connections’ top-class staying hurdler Kasbah Bliss, while Bawina’s dam is a close relative to a former Prix de Diane winner Egyptband. Bawina shaped as though the step up in trip will suit after a troubled run in the Pouliches in which she had to race wide throughout and then met interference instigated by the winner (connections failed with their appeal to have the result amended) before finishing well.

Remarkably, the last six winners of the Prix de Diane were all maintaining unbeaten records when winning at Chantilly. Avenir Certain bids to emulate Zarkava and Golden Lilac from that sextet who had won the Pouliches beforehand, while her trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has been responsible for another couple among that half-dozen, Stacelita and Valyra. Another leading contender with an unbeaten record going into Sunday’s race is Shamkala who is bidding to become the eighth winner of the race for the Aga Khan. Unlike the other leading contenders already mentioned, Shamkala is proven over Sunday’s trip but weighing up exactly how good she is a much harder task as she has won all three of her races very easily, if not by wide margins. The last of those was the Prix Cleopatre at Saint-Cloud in which she looked a class above her rivals (two of whom, runner-up Amour A Papa and fourth-placed Bocaiuva take her on again), making her a rarity among pattern winners in still having a ‘large P’ attached to her rating, denoting that we consider her to be capable of much better form. Sunday should be her chance to prove it and give her trainer Alain de Royer Dupre another win in the race after saddling six of the Aga Khan’s successful fillies.

Recommendation:

Back Shamkala in the Prix de Diane



Timeform weight-adjusted ratings:

133p Avenir Certain

127+ Miss France

123P Shamkala

123p Bawina

123 Xcellence
 
There does not seem much logic to this preview.

The headline extols the virtue of being unbeaten coming into the race and the analysis makes a case for two unbeaten fillies:

Shamkala has created a favourable impression in winning her three starts to date, although the most recent of these was not at the top level and she swerved the Prix Saint-Alary, the winner of which, We Are, has been pulled.

Avenir Certain ran in some minor events and went to Longchamp for the Pouliches as the stable’s second string but collected the Group 1 Classic.

Jean-Claude Rouget’s filly has Classic form on her CV and there seems to be good reason to believe that she will stay, whilst Alain de Royer Dupre’s filly is rated ten pounds inferior but has a large “P” next to her name. Her trainer has won the Prix de Diane six times for the Aga Khan so the large “P” must be worth more than ten pounds...

Is Shamkala the next Zarkava? At 13/8, I will just be watching.
 
Neither Guineas looks that strong, ground might have gone against Miss France and Avenir is far from Certain to stay, Shamkala is a nice filly and looks the obvious one but not interested at the price. Im sure if she wins, the Arc will be the talk because its so easy for a 3yo filly to win the race after all, but for me she is no Zarkava or Treve, just a straightforward, effective, professional filly.

I would have been all over We Are but with her out Lavender Lane looks the bet at 16s.
 
I'll take Bawina in this year's renewal. Olivier Peslier's filly had a troubled run LTO and, with a little more luck in running, could go really well this time.
 
I cannot say that I was very impressed with the Prix de Diane at all.

The winner Avenir Certain was ridden like a non-stayer, dropped out at the back and then brought with a long withering run on the outside until she quickened to hit the front in the last fifty yards. As a decent sized blanket could cover half the field at the line, this moderately run race may only be a Classic in name. I do not expect we will see Jean-Claude Rouget’s filly race over more than ten furlongs and she will probably stick to races over that trip or a mile against her own sex.

The favourite Shamkala was up in the leading bunch along with Miss France the whole race; but when she was asked for her effort with not much more than a furlong to go she seemed to lose her action and found nothing for pressure. I wonder if it is going to turn out that she needs proper soft ground (always plenty of that in France) to be at her best.

That Miss France won her “warm up race” at Newmarket and failed to deliver over a trip that should have suited her better leads me to believe that this year’s three year old fillies may not be a very good crop, except for possibly Oaks winner Taghrooda.
 
Yep, Bawina was ridden up with the pace and.................finished last of all! <doh>