Pretentious...Moi ?

The time has come to impart a soupçon of intellect on proceedings...or in other words listen up minions and you may learn something.

So let's suppose you've avidly followed a company which operates in a niche market for the last fifty years or so. You know everything there is to know about such company and in fact it's probably the one thing on planet Earth about which you are most informed.

Well, there is such a company and in fact there are 92 (now 91) of them. The question is what to do with all that knowledge garnered over many decades of supporting a football club ?

Last season was initially such a successful one that an opportunity arose to make a financial gain by predicting the outcome of the football matches played by our team Leeds. First though some basic mathematical calculations needed to be done. Taking home matches only, for which by now we were massively odds on in every game, regardless of opposition, the following conclusions were drawn...

1) To wager on home team victory would require a success rate of approx 62% on all bets to break even. Therefore to make anything approaching a decent profit would require a success rate of at least 80% to make it worthwhile taking the financial risk.

Conclusion...bad investment as too difficult achieve.

2) To wager on a home team defeat as well as the match being drawn would require an approx 22% success rate to break even. Therefore anything approaching a 40% to 50% success rate would yield a decent profit.

Conclusion...definitely worthy of further consideration.

3) Factor in that matches against teams that are of either similar ability or historically have proven difficult to obtain positive results against and the chances of wagering success are further quantifiable by using mathematical probability theory. Once these probabilities are applied then the chances of wagering success against teams such as Norwich, Sheff Utd, Aston Villa, Middlesboro, Derby, Nottingham Forest etc improve dramatically.

Final conclusion...bookmakers are/were seriously miscalculating their odds on LUFC home fixtures based on strong early season form and by not making allowances for performances/results tailing off during the second half of seasons plus our innate ability to shoot ourselves in the foot in high pressure matches.

Now after yesterday's result this imbalance may see a correction, which would be good, as then wagering on a home victory may become more financially rewarding.

Let me leave you with these final thoughts;

You wager on your team to win and they win...fantastic what could be better.
You wager on your team to win and they lose...double whammy of disappointment.
You wager on your team to lose/draw and they win...happy days as nothing is better than 3 points in the bag.
You wager on your team to lose/draw and they lose...gutted as nothing hurts like a defeat but at least you take some small comfort from having bulging pockets and being a smart arse.

 

Now thats a typical jammy post made me smile.

 

I'm going to be in the minority here, but I'm going to go for D.

You wager on your team to lose/draw and they lose...gutted as nothing hurts like a defeat but at least you take some small comfort from having bulging pockets and being a smart arse.

As you said nothing hurts like a defeat and I'd much rather lose a fiver or tenner and have Leeds win...

 

Think of it like this for example;

Young Mr Shaks flies over for the game and it usually costs him £500, door to door.

Leeds win and he's as happy as Larry but as his bet lost it cost him £600 instead. Is the fact it cost an extra £100 going to spoil his enjoyment ? Not one little bit me thinks.

Now the other scenario is...he walks in the door and Mrs Shaks says how did it go ?

We lost, he says, but as some nice friendly bookie paid for the trip I'll be going again in a couple of weeks.

Now it's entirely possible that some of you might be more driven by your love for money than your love of all things Leeds United. If this is the case and you can't trust yourself to not switch allegiance mid match then I strongly suggest taking a long hard look at yourself in the mirror. In fact I think it's a really good test as to how much you actually do love and support your team.

Who's up for the avarice challenge ?

 

Its the way I see it...

 

Option E for me. I don't bet.

Btw, nice to see you back, old boy.

 

Many thanks WJ.

To be honest it was you I had in mind when writing the original post. How else could you afford to finance all those cruises other than by winning thousands wagering on your beloved Patrick Thistle to lose...must have been like taking candy from babies ?

By the way, I agree wholeheartedly with your opinion on yesterday's match. In my opinion most of the referees in the championship are deliberately slowing the game down because they are neither mentally or physically up to the task.

 

Are any of you super fans aware that our match against Birmingham on the 19th October is the official Centenary fixture ?

Apparently it's going to be quite the occasion.

 

Or you bet on Stoke and then we lose the penalties. Still at £11 a ticket it wasn't all bad.....

 

If you'd used B365 they automatically/immediately pay out if your chosen team goes 2 goals up.

Schoolboy error, but that's why Im here.

 

Erm .... is this good news or bad news? Can't make head nor tail of it.

 

Scumbag bets

 

Bet365 in my own name is heavily restricted and not eligible for any promos.

 

A common problem I'm afraid...fortunately my account is unrestricted due to having a contact there.

You could always phone a friend.

 

I bet and lost on us in the Sheff Utd away, Villa away, derby at home and West Brom at home games.

I felt I was key to trying to secure promotion because when I didn't bet on us to lose, west brom away, forest away, etc we inevitably did.

Resisted the temptation to bet on the league this season so far.

 

So it wasn't Rad'z who didn't have the funds to get us promoted...it was you.

 

Afraid so, Norwich at home another key game I didn't bet.

 

My my you're making me feel a little guilty for starting this thread now...

You do know WJ used to work (volunteer) for the Samaritans if you need to phone that friend ?

 

Oh you meant phone a friend for a chat to improve by well being. I thought you meant for a new 365 account. I asked a friend for one but they cited the 3rd party funds rule and declined, as such we're no longer friends. Now where's that number for the samaritans....

 

Welcome back Jammy. Any money I do have is invested into the Yorkshire breweries. The reason I don't win much, (well there are hundreds) I'm crap and also I would NEVER bet on Leeds United to draw or lose and I never bet on SCUM to win or draw...