Attached a summary that I threw together to mash up all of the fixtures for the bottom six teams and I reckon it's going to be very tight. I've stated Optimistic, Pragmatic and Negative scenarios, then chosen one from each. This predicts us staying up with 38 points 1 point above Wigan and Blackburn! Forgetting our results, for me the key ties are: Tottenham vs Blackburn - must be a Home Win Wigan vs Newcastle - must be an Away Win Blackburn vs Wigan - must be a Home Win This will leave Wigan and Blackburn slugging it out, though I think we will need at least a point on Sunday, and anything other than a win vs Stoke at home will be a disaster!
It's between us and Bolton, Blackburn are f*cked imo. Think we may well finish level on points with Bolton (or rather I hope so). Goal difference is with us.
I did it a few weeks ago and had you staying up on 37 points with Villa, Wigan and Wolves down. So far got every result of yours spot on i.e beating Swansea and Spurs, losing to WBA. I think Villa will get dragged into it. I Fancy Bolton to get a point at Sunderland and Blackburn to beat Spurs. Wheels have come of at Sunderland now and they're already on holiday. Now is a good time to play them I think. Spurs are in disarray and have been ripped apart with injuries, I don't see where their next win is coming from. Somebody will go down on goal difference.
I think you'll have to keep your fingers crossed the title race doesn't come down to goal difference or on the last day because if City need the goals, on this seasons showings I fear they could get them. Your GD is vastly superior to others around you and that's probably a testament to how competitive you've been all of your games bar 2 or 3. Just think how massive those 2 goals could be at Blackburn.
Even more massive is Clint Hills goal against Bolton, thats cost us at least 3 points, we would have had a draw and maybe all 3 points if we had taken the lead there. i really hope we dont go down by less than 3 points to them.
To be honest I really cant see Villa or Blackburn picking up anymore points this season. Villa have got to get through a derby first like us but then face Spurs (who have to win at some point) and play Norwich away which has been a tough game for all teams (except Man City) this season. As for Blackburn, I cant see them getting anything at White Hart Lane or Stamford Bridge and I'd fancy Wigan to beat them at Ewood Park. As for Wigan I'd be surprised not to see them pick up 6 points from their remaning games. And bolton final points tally will depend on which Bolton turns up. The Bolton that showed up for the 1st 60 minutes against Villa looked dreadful but after that they controlled the game for the last 30. Id expect them to pick up around 4 points from their final 4 games. That leaves it on: Wigan 40 Bolton 37 Villa 36 Blackburn 31 The key game for us is beating Stoke. If we don't we will go down, if we do I think we will stay even if we dont get anything against Chelsea or City.
Wins over Chelsea and Stoke to leave us watching the last day's games with a smile whatever our result!...
Disagree with Blackburn, I think there is genuine quality in their squad and they have won at Old Trafford and picked points at Goodison and Anfield against all odds. Yakubu and Hoilett are doing enough to keep them in it. Spurs are decimated with injuries and in poor form, I think they will win there. Chelsea will have one eye on the Champions League Final so will be resting players there as well. It's important for you that Chelsea have something to play for (domestically) come the last day because Blackburn IMO are good enough to get something from our 2nd string if need be. They key is Sunderland vs Bolton. If Bolton win the relegation battle gets turned on it's head.
Blackburn's squad does have some genuine quality but I just don't see them picking up anymore points. Spurs will at least a game before the season ends and with their fans already beginning to turn, I think this weekend they will put in a good performance against Blackburn and beat them. And whilst they have won at Old Trafford this year and picked points at Anfield and Goodison, they also failed to beat possibly the worst Liverpool starting 11 in history which was down to 10 men and they were given 2 penalties. Even last weekend against Norwich, you can point to quite a few Norwich chances and say on a different day they might have gone in. Either way we'll see how they are after this weekend. If they lose, they will be as good as gone. If they win, who knows what will happen.
i still think that this year will see Villa drop. there is always one side that has a nightmare from mid table and this year it is Viilla. They have missed Dunne, but I cannot see them scoring goals to keep them up, especially as Darren Bent is also out. We need a win against chelsea - which bearing in mind the win against Barcelona their minds may still be focuessed elsewhere, plus there is still the Terry incident. I could see us nicking this 1-0 with Anton scoring the winner. A win against Stoke would also help and maybe in Manure have sorted out the title, our last game against Citeh we might get something. My final on this year are these "The R's are staying up"
A point at Chelsea and a win against Stoke will do it......thats 38 points and another year in the EPL, lets just hope we do it.
A win against Chelsea, another at Stoke and another at Citeh should see us stay up. I am quietly confident.
Also important to me was SWP disallowed goal against WBA to make it 2-0... There will be so many of those points if we do go down, and the only other team who can really feel that aggreived toowould be Wigan (and the Chelskie goals against them). To go down and Villa, Bolton Blackburn stay up would be hard
What makes it even worse is that WBAs goal was offside too. Every single wrong decision has cost us. The only one in our favour that I can remember was a part of a 3-0 win, typical!
