So with just seven games remaining in the current season, it is time before everyone disappears for another football season to start considering the set up for next seasons prediction league. Last season several members contributed towards the current rules and I would like to gather your thoughts again. Firstly, is everyone happy for the league to continue on this site? although there are other places I could seek to move it too, it has generally been a good home with virtually no disruption. The new scoring system appears to have worked well, keeping consistent with previous seasons and a close finish, which keeps the competition active. In any rule change, the only thing that I have always been insistent on is that it is a pre match score prediction league first and foremost. I am considering dropping the minus two points for not predicting a goal scorer, however, offering more points for getting a goal scorer correct, hence incentive to post them. The prediction league has grown more and more popular season on season so I need your help for that to continue. Are we happy with one league, do we need two, so many options to progress. Important: Just as a guide, the macros sheet that AllHell gave me last season, contains *six scoring sections (Items), so I have to work within those confines, also any changes must not be time consuming to input/collate on a match by match basis. * Item 1. 12 points = correct score - 8 plus goals in a game Item 2. 9 points = correct score -4-7 goals in a game Item 3. 6 points = correct score -0-3 goals in a game Item 4. 3 points = no correct score scenario - win/lose/draw Item 5. -2 points = failed to predict scorer (if I drop this part, it will give us an extra point scoring section) Item 6. 1 point = correct goal scorer (maybe increase points in this correct scenario) Current rules...http://www.not606.com/showthread.php/62110-Prediction-League-Rules-2011-12-(closed-thread-version So let us get them suggestions in...
I think there should be a single point for getting the result right regardless of the scoe, so if you predict a Gills win you get one point. I certainly feel this will mean more players will score and make things a little more interesting
I assume you mean for predicting a correct outcome win/lose/draw? If I did apply that rule, then it would mean we would need to look at (item 4), which applies 3 points for a correct outcome in the event of no correct score line predictions. i.e the current rule would be replaced by your suggested new rule? I have no problem with that and considering I have to glance back over everyone's predictions (ensuring no errors on my part), it would not be difficult to apply one point while doing so.
Yeah that would need a tweak to that rule, but with a lot more people scoring points I think it would keep interest higher. How do you do the checking? It wouldn't take long to do knock together a spreadsheet to do the number crunching, and minimise the "human error"
BSG - Currently I use two spreadsheets... I use a macro sheet supplied by AllHell, to which I just enter a number 'one' digit to each correct predictor line in the relevant column of six point scoring scenarios. That number 'one' digit once entered automatically applies the relevant number of points for that scenario and automatically creates the table. So basically the only human error that can happen is if I place the digit in the wrong predictor line or I overlook someone's correct prediction or goal scorer. Which leads me to the other part of what I do. Every prediction posted is copied exactly as it is from the thread and posted on to a separate spreadsheet, which enables me to quickly check posters predictions and keep a record in event of a query. Also the separate spreadsheet allows you to monitor who are your regular punters and if I need to allow in additional members to keep the league actively competitive. Now what I ideally require is for both spreadsheets to link and read one another. However, in a goal scorer scenario I am not sure how you could eliminate the human input, because manually you would still need to tell the spreadsheet each outcome. Despite a number of queries this season in regards to their predictions, I can for the first season in three, pride myself in having a 0% error rate. However, if I could make things simpler then I am always open to suggestions. I know of other prediction leagues that use much more complex spreadsheets, they are ok if you run a league that predicts everything in advance. Although with the current league I wish it to remain active weekly so people interact weekly and refuse to take advance predictions accept in holiday scenarios and other special occasions. I hope that makes sense?
Looks like a vote of confidence. Although having done the number crunching do you want to reconsider the number of points applied in this scenario, if I implement the new rule for the following reasons: I calculate there has been about 17 games (including FA Cup games) where posters failed to predict the correct score line this season and last season I know there was 15 games. Which equals a potential 51 points & 45 points respectively in the default correct outcome scenario. Implementing the new rule regardless of correct score line will only give you a potential of 46 points (less points than this season). So maybe double it up to 2 points? This will give you... Edit: 6pts for a correct score line with three or less goals in a game. 2pts for a correct outcome in the new rule 1pt for every correct goal scorer By agreeing to 2pts it will give you the potential to earn 92 points in the season.
I also am in favour of getting points for predicting the correct result, and think that 2 points would be fair, but that predicting the correct score should be better rewarded, and the 6 points for that maintained. If that is apportioned as 2 points for the result plus 4 points for 0-3 goals then so be it.
itstimupnorth - well done, I am glad some one is paying attention and spotted my slight oversight in my last post. You are quite right it is 6 points for a 0-3 goals correct score line, just goes to show how much I let my macro sheet do the work. So thinking about what you have picked up on, the benefit to a correct score line prediction would be 6 points + 2 points for the correct outcome = 8 points. With the same criteria being applied throughout the varying scale. So in other terms you would need to get four correct outcomes to equal one correct 0-3 goals correct scoreline prediction, which seems fair, considering the level of difficulty between the two scenarios. On a separate note so people understand why the varied scale is applied, it is to avoid posters constantly predicting 1-0, which in betting would receive lower odds because of the higher possibility of being correct. I measured from the previous season each scenario. Although for the new season I could jokingly add I should penalise people that constantly predict 4-3 - lol
Sounds fine to me. So, next question, do you think you need to continue with Item 4. 3 points = no correct score scenario - win/lose/draw? Whilst there coulld well be situations where no correct score is predicted, if players are picking up points for predicting the correct result then that would to some degree compensate for failing to get points under Item 4 if it were removed. The alternative would be to to reduce points awarded under Item 4 to 1 point, which would keep the points awarded the same as at present.
Item 4 will be completely replaced by BSG's suggestion of awarding ALL correct results (outcomes) 2 points, even in the event of no correct score line predictions. So as it stands at the moment this is the revised points system for each column on my macro sheet: Item 1. - 12 points = correct score 8 plus goals in a game Item 2. - 09 points = correct score 4-7 goals in a game Item 3. - 06 points = correct score 0-3 goals in a game Item 4. - 02 points = correct result (outcome) Item 5. - 00 points = (spare) Item 6. - 01 points = correct goal scorer via correct score only In addition having looked at the goal scorer scenario (item 6), I think it might be better to remain at one point per each correct goal scorer, otherwise creating too many even number scenarios will create too many tied positions. Just a quick question, should all correct score line predictions also be receiving the additional 2 points for a correct result (outcome), or should posters only receive the points under the highest points category they fall within. I think by doing the latter it will keep the league tighter over the course of a season, which is the general idea of bringing in the correct result scenario. Basically what I am saying is you can only gain one or the other, correct score line or correct result (outcome), you cannot claim both.
My view is that points should only be awarded only under the highest points category, so that if you get the correct score you get 6 or 9 or 12 points depending on the score, plus goalscorer bonuses, but if you get the correct result (but not the correct score) you get 2 points. Depending on how the spreadsheet works you could alternatively award 2 points for everyone with the correct result, and then a bonus of 4 or 7 or 10 points for predicting the correct score, plus goalscorer bonuses.
I think you should get rid of the minus and even if you get the score wrong a point for any scorers correct in the prediction that way more people will get points.
I don't think that will work because what is stopping you saying 11 all and naming all the players, that would guarantee some points (assuming it isn't 0-0)
