Off Topic Politics Thread

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Spot on.

My main concern at the moment is that if the gamble starts failing and he gets backed into a corner, his capacity to think "**** it".

Yeah, that's absolutely a concern. There's a reason why letting dictators go peacefully into exile has been a popular if entirely unsatisfying option in the past: fights to the death get really, really ugly. Your best-case becomes a palace coup and a post-mortem view of the sidewalk from a lamp post, your worst-case becomes something truly horrific. And that's when they don't have enormous nuclear arsenals.
 
In what way did he call his own bluff ? What makes you say it isn’t so convincing now?


I think he’s lost the plot, basically. He walked himself and his army up to the line them crossed it, but in his most recent announcements he didn’t look to me like a man in control of himself let alone anything else.
 
Will be interesting if
I think he’s lost the plot, basically. He walked himself and his army up to the line them crossed it, but in his most recent announcements he didn’t look to me like a man in control of himself let alone anything else.

Apparently Macron has suggested that in recent exchanges it seemed that Putins personality had completely changed, I mean I know that is probably just a dictator warlord revealing his true face, but his ambitions were not exactly a secret before.
 
They can’t throw everyone in jail though.

They can, and have, thrown an awful lot of them in jail before, though.

But if the aim here was bolstering his public standing, it's already abundantly clear that this military excursion is far less popular in Russia than previous ones. And it very much appears that their security apparatus has been wrong-footed by the size of the protests, as they had nowhere near the number of police (or counter-protesters) deployed that they normally do.
 
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They can, and have, thrown an awful lot of them in jail before, though.

But if the aim here was bolstering his public standing, it's already abundantly clear that this military excursion is far less popular in Russia than previous ones. And it very much appears that their security apparatus has been wrong-footed by the size of the protests, as they had nowhere near the number of police (or counter-protesters) deployed that they normally do.
I read that as - but they will do going forward
 
I read that as - but they will do going forward

They definitely will. But the size of the spontaneous protests, unopposed by the usual Kremlin stooge counterprotesters, is going to linger in the mind even when the internal disinfo apparatus rumbles into gear. Telegram chatter is also apparently much more boldly anti-war than one would normally expect (Telegram tends to be favoured by the Russian center/left but there's inherent risk in being out of pocket there, as well).
 
Care needed with reposting stuff.
BBC News - Ukraine conflict: Many misleading images have been shared online
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60513452

Honestly, the usual suspects are already getting their grift on, that it’s fake, that Russia aren’t to blame etc etc. Just waiting for Right Said Fred to complete the set (though I haven’t checked their feed recently, they bay already have done so).
 
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If it goes nuclear us and Portsmouth will be targets because of the ports, so it would be quick for most of us.
Unless we all go round to Chilcos house.
You would be welcome, but a conventional strike on Hinkley Point with the wind in the south west (which it always is) would render most of Southern England radioactive.
 
Honestly, the usual suspects are already getting their grift on, that it’s fake, that Russia aren’t to blame etc etc. Just waiting for Right Said Fred to complete the set (though I haven’t checked their feed recently, they bay already have done so).
These images claim to show action in Ukraine rather than denier fakes. Of course the fakery will come with all sorts angles trying to justify Putin's invasion. Wrong Said Fred would suit better nothing much right there.
 
Ukraine announced it had lost control of the Chernobyl nuclear site near the country’s northern border with Belarus. Pointless according to a Ukrainian spokesman.