I know it's really early in the season but I just thought it would be an idea to look at what targets Saints can realistically be looking at next May. I looked back at the last 10 seasons of Championship (and First Division before that) final tables to see what we should be aiming for. The first target, obviously, is to avoid relegation. In the last 10 years the minimum necessary for 21st place was 48, the maximum 53, and the average 50.2. So with 18 points we are already well over a third of the way towards making sure we don't go back to League One. The next target is to get to the playoffs. 6th place over the last 10 seasons has been achieved by getting at the least 70 points, at the most 75, and on average 73.4. The way we are playing now, I believe 75 points is the minimum we will end up with. Automatic promotion in 2nd place was gained with 79 points in 2007 - 08, but needed 92 points in 2002 - 03. The average over 10 years was 86.7. To win the league outright, you needed only 81 points in 2007 - 08, but a massive 106 in 2005 - 06. The average points tally for the league champions was 94. Personally, I believe that Saints can get to the promised land if we carry on playing the way we have started this season. What do you guys think? Here's my statistics in full: ----------21st-----------6th--------2nd---------1st 2010 - 11 48----------75----------84----------88 2009 - 10 49----------70----------91----------102 2008 - 09 51----------74----------83----------90 2007 - 08 53----------70----------79----------81 2006 - 07 51----------75----------86----------88 2005 - 06 50----------75----------90----------106 2004 - 05 50----------73----------87----------94 2003 - 04 51----------73----------86----------94 2002 - 03 50----------74----------92----------98 2001 - 02 49----------75----------89----------99 Max---------53---------75----------92----------106 Min----------48---------70----------79----------81 Average-----50.2------73.4--------86.7--------94
If, becomes a much used word, in these circumstances. Actually, I'm astonished at the average points required to avoid relegation. I know with 23 teams and 4 relegation places, the opportunity and necessity for points gathering is made higher, but 48 to 53..!?! That would place you in 8th-12th spot in the Premiership. Just shows how ultra competitive this league is.
I think we will get at least 75 points. 57 points from 39 games should be acheivable. However, I think the required points listed here is slightly misleading. For example, to finish top in 2005-2006 did not require 106 points. It required 91 points (1 point ahead of second place). Therefore, to finish in the top two you need to look at how many points 3rd place acheived and ensure you finish one higher than that.
As for points target, I don't think Adkins works that way. He says the team believe they can win every match and they go out and try to do so. With that attitude the target is obviously 3 points per, and that attitude seems to be working, so far. It's not for me to limit them by suggesting anything lower.
I can't see us dropping a huge amount of points at home, I think it's our away form that will determine where we finish.
At the current rate, we're gonna finish on 118.286 points....so anywhere below that will be a massive failure, and I can honestly see the club shut down and everyone get sacked....
75 has been my target since the season began, because as you've illustrated it's enough to get you into the playoffs in virtually any season. Couple weeks back I started working for the fun of it on a chart which would measure the points totals of each Championship club against the pace needed to reach 75...not necessarily with our pursuit in mind, but because I thought it might be an interesting way to view the changing fortunes of every team over the course of a long season. I put it aside because at the time every team was close enough together that it was just a tangled mess of overlapping lines, but I can revive it if anyone is interested.
