for the members that follow this; Actual 29 pts after 25 games Predicted 35 pts after 25 games Minus 6 pts, Highest variance minus 9 - Port Vale & Bradford AWAY, lowest variance minus 3 under PT after Tranmere AWAY. Points total to avoid relegation is on average between 50 -53 i believe. Ignore the scores more concentrate on the outcomes and points tallying: 26 League One Colchester v Gillingham Sat 11 Jan 15:00 1-2 27 League One Gillingham v Swindon Sat 18 Jan 15:00 3-2 28 League One Brentford v Gillingham Sat 25 Jan 15:00 2-0 Feb-14 (9) 30 League One Gillingham v Port Vale Sat 1 Feb 15:00 2-1 31 League One Carlisle v Gillingham Sat 8 Feb 15:00 1-0 32 League One Gillingham v Sheff Utd Sat 15 Feb 15:00 1-3 33 League One Oldham v Gillingham Sat 22 Feb 15:00 1-1 Mar-14 (4) 34 League One Bristol City v Gillingham Sat 1 Mar 15:00 1-0 35 League One Gillingham v Crawley Sat 8 Mar 15:00 3-0 36 League One Gillingham v Coventry Tue 11 Mar 19:45 2-0 37 League One Bradford v Gillingham Sat 15 Mar 15:00 2-1 38 League One Gillingham v Crewe Sat 22 Mar 15:00 2-2 39 League One MK Dons v Gillingham Tue 25 Mar 19:45 4-0 40 League One Peterborov Gillingham Sat 29 Mar 15:00 3-0 Apr-14 (7) 41 League One Gillingham v Rotherham Sat 5 Apr 15:00 2-1 42 League One Orient v Gillingham Sat 12 Apr 15:00 0-1 43 League One Gillingham v Tranmere Sat 19 Apr 15:00 1-1 44 League One Walsall v Gillingham Mon 21 Apr 15:00 1-2 45 League One Preston v Gillingham Sat 26 Apr 15:00 2-0 May-14 (10) 46 League One Gillingham v Shrewsbury Sat 3 May 15:00 2-2 (1) My worry is that my preseason expectations for April are way to high. However, my preseason prediction was 63 points, with the current minus 6, we still have an error of margin of minus 4 to achieve 53 points and safety. I need to look at my calculations to check my totaling is correct but that about covers it for now. ps. The Steveange rearranged fixture is missing from the list: 24 League One Stevenage v Gillingham Tue 4 Feb 19:45 2-2
Gary who does all the stats for the club, tweeted this today: Gary Wade ‏@Gills_Stats 13m If the league points won under Peter Taylor were averaged out across all 46 games, the Gills would have amassed 66 points by May. So if i'm on minus 6 there is hope for my 63 points yet...lol...ok, i'll wake up now. Let's be having your outcomes and points total please... Colchester v Gillingham Gillingham v Swindon Brentford v Gillingham Gillingham v Port Vale Stevenage v Gillingham Carlisle v Gillingham Gillingham v Sheff Utd Oldham v Gillingham Bristol City v Gillingham Gillingham v Crawley Gillingham v Coventry Bradford v Gillingham Gillingham v Crewe MK Dons v Gillingham Peterborough v Gillingham Gillingham v Rotherham Leyton Orient v Gillingham Gillingham v Tranmere Walsall v Gillingham Preston v Gillingham Gillingham v Shrewsbury
Colchester v Gillingham Win 32 points Gillingham v Swindon Win 35 Points Brentford v Gillingham Lose 35 Points Gillingham v Port Vale Win 38 Points Stevenage v Gillingham Win 41 Points Carlisle v Gillingham Draw 42 Points Gillingham v Sheff Utd Draw 43 Points Oldham v Gillingham Win 46 Points Bristol City v Gillingham Lose 46 Points Gillingham v Crawley Win 49 Points Gillingham v Coventry Draw 50 Points Bradford v Gillingham Draw 51 Points Gillingham v Crewe Win 54 Points MK Dons v Gillingham Lose 54 Points Peterborough v Gillingham Lose 54 Points Gillingham v Rotherham Draw 55 Points Leyton Orient v Gillingham Lose 55 Points Gillingham v Tranmere Win 58 Points Walsall v Gillingham Lose 58 Points Preston v Gillingham Lose 58 Points Gillingham v Shrewsbury Draw 59 Points This is my prediction. Maybe a bit ambitious but this is what I think we could get. Think a bit of a poor run at the end of the season but I think we could get a good amount of points in the next 10 or so games. This is what I predict. 8 wins 6 draws 7 defeats I would be happy with this and I also think we can win at least 8 out of 21. An average would suggest that we would win 7 more games but you don't win the season on averages. But if we did win 7 then that would be fine as long as we don't lose too many.
As long as we stay up and get the chance to build a bit in the close season and push on next year……...
With a lose double against Colchester I think we may only get 47 points which will properly not be enough to stay up.
Well as I see it according to the brb pre-season prediction we should be 41 points from 27 games meaning we are now 9 points adrift, however I do think we are improving and hope that we will easily get to the 52 points that will probably be needed.
I'll say we will finish on 58 points. Few points safe but nothing better. Aslong as we stay up thats what matters.
I think it's generally accepted that 50 points should be enough to avoid the drop, even though it wasn't in 2010, although in 2012 just 44 points would have been enough. Looking at it from a relatively positive point of view, and avoiding the points required situation, at the moment we are 5 points clear of 20th place (allowing for inferior goal difference) having played broadly the same number of games as those in trouble. Of the current bottom 8 clubs, we have still to play 4 at home and 4 away, including the current bottom 2. THOSE are the games in which we need to get good results. In the reverse fixtures played so far we have got 16 points. I reckon that if we can get 16 points from those 8 games still to play then that would be job done.
