Here are the number of points that teams finishing 3rd and 4th have finished on each season this century: 11-12: 70/69 10-11: 71/68 09-10: 75/70 08-09: 83/72 07-08: 83/76 06-07: 68/68 05-06: 82/67 04-05: 77/61 03-04: 75/60 02-03: 69/67 01-02: 77/71 00-01: 69/68 3rd ranges from 68-83pts and 4th is 60-76. However, the 03-04 and 05-06 seasons were a bit freakish. The first was Arsenal's invincibles season where they won by 11 points and the gap from 3rd to 4th was big. Similarly the next season Chelsea lost just 1 game and scored a whopping 95 points, again the gap from 3rd to 4th was big. So, what is my point? I'm not really sure so i'll just continue. This season looks like it might be a runaway winner again with Man Utd, but it looks like 3rd-4th will be close together. Whenever 3rd/4th have been within 1 win of each other the points required has been roughly 70. I still don't know my point. My guess is that 70pts would probably be enough to get us 4th this year which we could achieve with 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats. That seems a good figure considering it would take Arsenal 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat to match us which i think is unlikely. Like Stevie G has said today, Liverpool would need (almost) a perfect finish of 8 wins and 1 draw to hit 70pts. Is that my point? My point is Stevie G is right??? ****, what a waste of time. Sorry guys
To guarantee 4th we need 24 points from our remaining 9 matches. This will change as those around us drop points (as thy will) ... I think arsenal will lose to Chelsea or Man City (can't remember who they play out of thm 2) and will draw with swansea and Everton and can win the rest...if that happens and they drop those 7 points we will need 17 points... we play fulham, southampton & sunderland which I think we'll win...Everton swansea will be draws Chelsea and city will be losses and wigan & stoke will be a draw or a win...best case by my thinking is 17 points (including wins v wigan and stoke) worst case is 13 points (draws with wigan and stoke)...which all means **** in the great scheme of things but has got me preparing for more end of season trauma!
I haven't ruled out City wobbling, uncertainty surrounds the end of their season with little to play for imo, especially when United deliver the final kick in the groin and the title is feebly handed back. Apart from the managerial question mark, players that know they won't be there, are they gonna bother?
I know by experience this one ends up leading you down a dark tunnel... I keep my head on as straight as it's going to go by keeping in mind 76 points, or 2 points per game, would have gotten you fourth every single time this millenium (though once you'd have needed GD). Of course, Spurs are unlikely to get 22 points from nine games (7 wins, a draw and a loss). Seventy points would have done it in 8 1/2 out of 12 years (1.84/game). It would also beat our last year's Spurs' mark by one. We're currently on about 1.86/game, and would need 1.78 per game to get to 70. I think it's fair to call 70 points for the season very near what we're likeliest to achieve based on past form.* Arsenal would need to get 2.3 ppg to reach 70, say, 7 wins, two draws and a loss. Eight wins also gets them there. Not impossible, but they'd have to really step it up. If I was offered 70 points I'd have a damn hard time turning it down, but it's not really audere, is it? *Past results do not guarantee future performance.
70 is usually good enough for 4th and it should be this season. Spurs are on course for 70-71 points at the present rate (54 from 29 games). 16 more points from 9 games (5 at home). At Arsenal's present points per game average, 11 points could be enough.
I said at the start of the season we should be targeting 68-72 points. Given our current position I think we should be hitting the upper end of that, 72 points would almost certainly get us 4th as Arsenal would need 25 points from 30.
well said, if you get 8 wins out of 9 you dont have to worry about Arsenal, like us if we win 6 out of our remaining 10 games we will get the Title back (mathematically we need 19 points though) Arsenal have played both City and Chelsea twice already and their hardest games on paper is us at the Emirates but I can see them dropping points this weekend at Swansea
With Wilshere out of the picture, (who knows how long for) it could be a tougher run-in than they think.
I wouldn't worry about how many points you'll need, you are nailed on for 4th, if not 3rd, unless you have a major collapse. The only team near you in a good run of form is us, and we will not get fourth.
Even so,we need to keep the pressure on,the teams below us, stranger thing's have happened in football
you're right. We've only got a 7 point lead which could become 4, very soon. Maybe if we had a 10 point lead we could start to relax.....
Another way of looking at it... Maximum number of points Man Utd can get: 101 Maximum number of points Man City can get: 89 Maximum number of points Chelsea can get: 82 Maximum number of points Spurs can get: 81 Maximum number of points Arsenal can get: 77 Maximum number of points Everton can get: 75 Maximum number of points Liverpool can get: 72
IMHO tis no longer down to points. Merely about who holds their nerve best over the run-in. Citeh, Chelsky and Spurs have a similar set of nasty games. Chelsky are worse in that theirs comes in the final 6 games of the season. The Goons have on paper the easiest run-in, but back to holding your nerve.
Interesting thread, OP. So basically to stand a chance in hell at sneaking top 4 we need to win all 9 of our remaining games, should be easy!
I'm not gonna say that as both us, Arsenal and Chelsea could conceivably majorly bottle it. But history would suggest that is what is needed. Maybe Stevie is more intelligent than he seems!
