Plotting regression analysis, a 2-0 loss away in Europe is quite promising

Bib Fortuna's Maw · Aug 22, 2013

I've you were to use regression analysis or a probability model, it would seem that Celtic losing 2-0 away in the first leg of a European tie is actually more likely to result in us going through than a 2-1 defeat (Partizan hock-too)

Tuesday nightâs match was as dreadful as it could have been. We evidently lacked players in key positions as weâve sold without replacing, but even the players we do have should have been more than enough to get a good result and make life easier next week. But a combination of not playing some of them and those that did play not performing means weâre now staring at the Europa League group stages this season.

But, although Iâve just blamed everyone from the board to the the manager to the players in that one paragraph, there is actually still cause for hope. You just have to look back at the four previous times weâve returned home after a 2-0 first leg away defeat to see three of them went our way in the end. So rather than moan about what went wrong like I was tempted to do immediately after Tuesdayâs game, I thought a little historical walk through those games would be a better idea.

Our first match takes us back to the Jock Stein era. After winning the European Cup in 1967, Celtic were suddenly trying not to lose in the first round for the second consecutive season as French champions St Etienne held a 2-0 lead thanks to first half goals from Salif Keita and HervÃ© Revelli. As half time approached in the home leg, the match was still 0-0 and going to plan for the French side â until Celtic were awarded a penalty as Joe McBride was put in a headlock by Francis Camerini. Tommy Gemmell, who had missed the first leg through injury, tucked it away despite the St Etienne players attempting to put him off by throwing their shin guards at him!

That changed everything at just the right time. Celtic came out for the second half knowing just one more goal would turn the tie around and on the hour mark Jim Craig did just that. It didnât take long for Celtic to move in front either, as Stevie Chalmers made it 3-0 on the night before Joe McBride finally made the tie safe with just three minutes remaining. 2-0 down was now a 4-2 aggregate victory. Celtic were back in business in Europe.

Although Celtic would go on to win their second domestic treble in the 1968/69 season, the European Cup run would be halted at the quarter final stages. Red Star Belgrade were easily dispatched in the second round thanks to the famous Jimmy âIâll no need to goâ Johnstone inspired home win, but the 1-0 aggregate loss to AC Milan would be the end for another season. Although disappointing not to replicate the feat of two years earlier, losing out to AC Milan was no shame as the Italian champions would go on to lift the trophy against Ajax in Madrid.

It would be 14 years before another 2-0 away first leg defeat. Having defeated Dutch champions and three-time European Cup winning Ajax in the first round, this time it was the Spanish champions Real Sociedad who were the team to lead in the second round of the European Cup thanks to goals from JesÃºs MarÃa SatrÃºstegui and Pedro Uralde. Both goals had come in the final quarter of an hour of the game, so there was still hope Celtic could turn the tie around against the team from the Basque region.

Sadly it was not to be on this occasion. As Celtic Park flew a Basque flag rather than a Spanish flag, much to the delight of the visitors, 25 minutes into the match itself Uralde scored the crucial away goal to put the Spanish champions 3-0 up on aggregate. Although Murdo McLeod would pull a goal back before half time, his and Celticâs second goal wouldnât come until three minutes from time. A 2-1 victory on the night wasnât enough as it meant a 3-2 aggregate defeat. Real Sociedad would eventually reach the semi finals, only to lose out at the penultimate hurdle to the eventual winners Hamburg.

Twelve months on from that disappointment, Celtic were now looking at a similar scenario in the Uefa Cup. Sporting Lisbon held a 2-0 lead thanks to two goals from the lightning quick Rui JordÃ£o, and many had suggested Celtic were lucky to escape with just a 2-0 defeat. It didnât bode well for the home leg. What followed was one of the all time great Celtic Park European nights on a night.

Tommy Burns got things started with a header after seventeen minutes, before Tom McAdam levelled the tie two minutes before half time. Before the crowd had settled down to that tie equaliser, Celtic went in front as Brian McClair got in behind the defence and drew the keeper out on the stroke of half time. But as always the away goal threat was there throughout the second half.

There was never any concern though, as Celtic simply dominated the second half looking for more goals. It would take until Murdo McLeod making it four with five minutes remaining to finally end that away goals threat, but there was still time for Frank McGarvey to make it five just a minute after McLeodâs goal. With Sporting also wearing green and white hoops, Celtic had used the match to debut the new lime green away kit, one which would later become synonymous with another 5-0 win.

It was five going on fifteen that night as Celtic put on a fine display of attacking football. Other than the five goals, other chances were cleared at the last second by a fraught Sporting defence, and McClair even had a goal chalked off. Unfortunately, after adding Sporting Lisbon to Aarhus Gymnastik Forening from Dennark on the list of teams defeated, Celtic would narrowly lose out to Nottingham Forest in the very next round. Forest would go on to the semi finals where they would lose to Anderlecht, who themselves would lose to Tottenham Hotspur in the then two-legged final.

Our most recent 2-0 away first leg defeat is actually 21 years ago now. Thatâs bound to make a few people feel old given it took place in September 1992! In the middle of a dark period for the club, even qualifying for Europe was a novelty. So losing 2-0 away to Cologne thanks to goals from Jann Hensen and Frank Ordenewitz was of little surprise, even if Cologne were bottom of the Bundesliga at the time.

Nevertheless, Celtic went about the task of trying to turn the tie around. With ten minutes remaining of the first half, Paul McStay got the ball rolling with a volley and put Celtic in front on the night. Gerry Creaney then deflected a John Collins effort into the net to level the tie before half time, giving the home support a seemingly unlikely positive outlook â especially given Celtic had looked nervy until the opening goal! Still, another goal was required without conceding, and in the early 1990s we all knew what our sieve of a defence was like!

With extra time looming, John Collins fired Celtic in front for the first time in the tie. With 11 minutes of the game remaining, extra time would be avoided and it was a nervous wait until full time. Indeed, Cologne had the ball in the net through Frank Greiner, only for it to be ruled out for a foul on goalkeeper Gordon Marshall. Phew. But the final whistle did come, and Celtic progressed to face another German side, Borussia Dortmund, in the second round. Unfortunately they would knock Celtic out before eventually losing out in the two-legged final to Juventus.

So there you have it. St Etienne, Real Sociedad, Sporting Lisbon and Cologne. Four teams came with a 2-0 lead, all four lost at Celtic Park and only one of them actually progressed from the tie. Those teams arenât mugs, as weâre so fond of saying, so for a team like Shakhter Karagandy to pull off an unlikely victory in this tie would not only be an affront to the current Celtic squad, but also an affront to the history of the club.

Get the Sporting tapes out Neil. Show the players what is expected of them. After all, if Joe Ledley thinks we should have had six goals on Tuesday there should be no reason whatsoever that we canât have another terrific turnaround.

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http://www.hailhailmedia.com/2-0-and-you-fluffed-it-up/

I was at the Cologne game - that makes me feel old.

DevAdvocate · Aug 22, 2013

I was at the Cologne game too, Rangers end. Gerry Creaney's finest hour.

Bib Fortuna's Maw · Aug 22, 2013

DevAdvocate said: ↑

I was at the Cologne game too, Rangers end. Gerry Creaney's finest hour.
Click to expand...

John Collins 25 yard nutmeg

DevAdvocate · Aug 22, 2013

Biggus Diccus said: ↑

John Collins 25 yard nutmeg
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Happy days...even though we were ****e.

Plotting regression analysis, a 2-0 loss away in Europe is quite promising

Bib Fortuna's Maw Well-Known Member

DevAdvocate Gigging bassist

Bib Fortuna's Maw Well-Known Member

DevAdvocate Gigging bassist

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Plotting regression analysis, a 2-0 loss away in Europe is quite promising

Bib Fortuna's Maw Well-Known Member

DevAdvocate Gigging bassist

Bib Fortuna's Maw Well-Known Member

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