Permutations to be safe

[Loftyambitions]

I've been trying to work out how we can survive if we lose both our last 2 games, seeing what games the others have and seeing if 1 more point might be enough.

FACT: Huddersfield beat Birmingham on Saturday and we're safe (assuming they don't overturn 11 goal deficit). In any case, Hudd not a threat to us. They will end up below us. Beat Brum and they also can't catch us - hence we are safe.

Brum will only overtake us with a win and a draw (Hudd and Norwich) - tough ask. We get 1 point and they have to win both games. They can't catch us if we get 1 win.

SW need 4 points from WBA and Sunderland - tough ask, albeit do-able. We get 1 point, they have to win both.

Plymouth need just one win from Millwall and Hull - they could go down with 2 losses but 3 points is do-able.

Blackburn need 1 point from Cov and Leicester - could still slip up with those fixtures.

What is most likely? Who knows. We don't need to worry about Hudd and they can do us a favour next Saturday. Other than that, will Brum and SW BOTH get 4 points? We only need one of them not to...

Thoughts?

 

[Sooperhoop]

Pray...

 

[awjm]

I've been trying to work out how we can survive if we lose both our last 2 games, seeing what games the others have and seeing if 1 more point might be enough.

FACT: Huddersfield beat Birmingham on Saturday and we're safe (assuming they don't overturn 11 goal deficit). In any case, Hudd not a threat to us. They will end up below us. Beat Brum and they also can't catch us - hence we are safe.

Brum will only overtake us with a win and a draw (Hudd and Norwich) - tough ask. We get 1 point and they have to win both games. They can't catch us if we get 1 win.

SW need 4 points from WBA and Sunderland - tough ask, albeit do-able. We get 1 point, they have to win both.

Plymouth need just one win from Millwall and Hull - they could go down with 2 losses but 3 points is do-able.

Blackburn need 1 point from Cov and Leicester - could still slip up with those fixtures.

What is most likely? Who knows. We don't need to worry about Hudd and they can do us a favour next Saturday. Other than that, will Brum and SW BOTH get 4 points? We only need one of them not to...

Thoughts?

I feel quite safe now. The odds are in our favour. Which obviously doesn't guarantee safety but I think we're more or less there now.

Of course, I wouldn't want the squad to think that! They need to force the issue of safety and battle 'til the last.

I have a sneaky feeling about this Friday. I have done for about a month. I can feel us rising up to the challenge of a big team.

 

[Steelmonkey]

It ain't over til it's over..

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We NEED to **** up the MASSIVE promotion push on Friday just to be safe, but ir's proper squeaky bum time...

 

[Loftyambitions]

I feel quite safe now. The odds are in our favour. Which obviously doesn't guarantee safety but I think we're more or less there now.

Of course, I wouldn't want the squad to think that! They need to force the issue of safety and battle 'til the last.

I have a sneaky feeling about this Friday. I have done for about a month. I can feel us rising up to the challenge of a big team.

I'm not so sure. Remember 2 weeks ago when all the teams below us won. All of a sudden, our 6 points at Easter were cut in half and we were back in the sh1t.

 

[Trammers]

Beat Massive........simples

 

[QPR999]

I've just had a look at the relegation odds ( Bet365 ) to see what the bookies think ...

Huddersfield 1/9

Birmingham 10/11

Sheff Weds 6/5

Plymouth 8/1

Blackburn 9/1

QPR 66/1

Stoke 150/1

It would take a massive chain of events for us to drop. Hopefully we can get a point out of our next two games.

 

[Stroller]

We'll beat Leeds.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

My money would be on a draw with Leeds

 

[bobmid]

What a crazy league. From bottom to 17th (stoke) could possibly go down. When you look at the table, it's a mind ****. Unless I'm mistaken, we could do with Huddersfield beating Birmingham, considering our goal difference. A win at home against Leeds and it all becomes irrelevant.

 

[rangercol]

I've been trying to work out how we can survive if we lose both our last 2 games, seeing what games the others have and seeing if 1 more point might be enough.

FACT: Huddersfield beat Birmingham on Saturday and we're safe (assuming they don't overturn 11 goal deficit). In any case, Hudd not a threat to us. They will end up below us. Beat Brum and they also can't catch us - hence we are safe.

Brum will only overtake us with a win and a draw (Hudd and Norwich) - tough ask. We get 1 point and they have to win both games. They can't catch us if we get 1 win.

SW need 4 points from WBA and Sunderland - tough ask, albeit do-able. We get 1 point, they have to win both.

Plymouth need just one win from Millwall and Hull - they could go down with 2 losses but 3 points is do-able.

Blackburn need 1 point from Cov and Leicester - could still slip up with those fixtures.

What is most likely? Who knows. We don't need to worry about Hudd and they can do us a favour next Saturday. Other than that, will Brum and SW BOTH get 4 points? We only need one of them not to...

Thoughts?

As most people keep pointing out, it's pretty unlikely that all the results will culminate with us being relegated.
However, there are always very strange results at this stage of the season and table position and form often goes out the window.
The last day could well still be very nervy.

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

28/1 at worst and 66/1 best to go down. Really it’s a 100/1 shot.

All the teams down there are crap. The chances of us losing both, Birmingham getting 4+, SW getting 4+, Plymouth getting 2+, Blackburn getting 1+ and Stoke getting something are incredibly slim.

Leeds play tonight and big pressure on them. That’s a disadvantage. Cov have 4 games in ten days off the back of yesterday’s shambles.

I think it’ll be Birmingham and Hudds. Rowett hasn’t got Birmingham playing really. A huge chance at Rotherham and they were ****.

 

[CroydonCaptainJack]

Important to note that Stoke are not yet safe. Southampton away on Saturday may make their GD worse than us if we lose and they lose by more. Then Bristol City at home who are ticking along nicely so that is not a given either.

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Important to note that Stoke are not yet safe. Southampton away on Saturday may make their GD worse than us if we lose and they lose by more. Then Bristol City at home who are ticking along nicely so that is not a given either.

It’s a real shame we shat the bed when we went there as the manager was probably getting sacked had we won and he’s got them playing a bit now. Agree though it’s not implausible they lose heavily at Southampton and Bristol City aren’t a team likely to roll over for them. Plymouth bang in trouble with Miiiiiiiiiilllll away and Hull.

 

[Sutfol]

Just hope Coventry game is a nice relaxing day out with nothing to play for!

 

[simonstainrod]

I've just had a look at the relegation odds ( Bet365 ) to see what the bookies think ...

Huddersfield 1/9

Birmingham 10/11

Sheff Weds 6/5

Plymouth 8/1

Blackburn 9/1

QPR 66/1

Stoke 150/1

It would take a massive chain of events for us to drop. Hopefully we can get a point out of our next two games.

Are those odds for Stoke correct? Same points and goal difference as us, yet we’re over twice as likely to go down as them?

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Are those odds for Stoke correct? Same points and goal difference as us, yet we’re over twice as likely to go down as them?

On paper I guess they have easier games with Bristol City having nothing to play for and Southampton all but out of the promotion picture now unless Leeds lose tonight. The xG and all that will be factored in.

It’s a 0.7% chance for them or a 1.5% chance for us.

 

[Loftyambitions]

I'm liking everyone's positivity on here. I tend to agree with Ranger, the chances of us losing both, Birmingham getting 4+, SW getting 4+, Plymouth getting 2+, Blackburn getting 1+ and Stoke getting something are incredibly slim.Surely the gods can't work against us to make everything that we don't want happen

Wish SW hadn't won yesterday - a loss and we'd already be safe.
Just hope that Hudds can beat Birmingham on Saturday and put an end to it all. I just can't bear the thought of it all going down to the wire v Cov.

However, i also agree that win (or draw) on Friday and this thread may need to self-destruct anyhow.

 

[simonstainrod]

On paper I guess they have easier games with Bristol City having nothing to play for and Southampton all but out of the promotion picture now unless Leeds lose tonight. The xG and all that will be factored in.

It’s a 0.7% chance for them or a 1.5% chance for us.

Makes sense I suppose. The best opponent to play on the final day is one that's already in the play-offs, no chance of going up automatically, thus resting their key players and not wanting bookings or injuries. And that's Norwich. Who Birmingham play on the final day. Aaaarghhh!!

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Makes sense I suppose. The best opponent to play on the final day is one that's already in the play-offs, no chance of going up automatically, thus resting their key players and not wanting bookings or injuries. And that's Norwich. Who Birmingham play on the final day. Aaaarghhh!!

I’d say in that situation you have players playing for a spot in the team in the playoffs themselves. A win may be the difference between facing Leeds or Southampton which I guess is something to play for. Rather a home match against a Bristol City as Stoke have or a team who have just played five games in 12 days such as Coventry.

All a bit random who is arsed and who isn’t. Preston were quite on it. By the next game they may be firmly in the ‘not arsed’ category.