After watching the Europa League Final last night and with our impending game nearly upon us, i got thinking. Is there any unwritten rule as to whether it's better to take your penalty first in penalty shootout, or do most teams opt to go second ? My preference would probably be to go second, just due to the fact that i'd rather know how the opposition had already done in that 'round'. Any thoughts ??
Tricky though isn't it. Going second is great if the other team misses, but if they score the pressure is on you. If you go first you set the way...and if you miss there is always hope the other team will miss too. First for me, get it done and let the other team deal with knowing they have to score.
Going first is an advantage, a very big one IMO as the pressure is even bigger when you get to one you have to score to stay in or win it.
Did anybody else notice that the Sevilla goal keeper left his goal line well before the kicks and dived when about 1-2 from the goal? It certainly helped with closing the angles for the saves. But for me he broke the rules. Don't know what the lines man on the goal line was looking at.
I dont think it helps, in fact I think it actually hurts the goalie. Stepping forward a couple of yards only closes off an extra few inches when you're 10 yards away, its only really effective when the goalie gets really close and can block off 25% more of the goal just buy moving an extra yard. Staying back means you have a split second more to react and will dive an extra foot or two. Its still doesn't change the fact both misses should have been retaken, its unforgivable for them to allow the goals.
Going first is known to be a big advantage, and the statistics back it up. Funny fact from yesterday though is that Sevilla won both coin tosses. First to decide which supporters the shoutout was to take place in front of. Second to decide who to go first, and Rakitic wanted Benfica to start! I saw them beat Betis in an earlier round on penalties, same ruthless quality as yesterday. Their keeper Beto has great reflexes and won that one for them as well, that's why I think they let Benfica start.
Shall we worry about if/when it happens. I am a wreck as it is without adding more things to worry about. I am very happy to let the coaching staff ponder this one.
I thought there was only one toss, the winner decides ends or order. I thought we lost the toss at the start of ET the derby captain pointed to their end, I'm not sure if it was for the pens or if it was for ends. If so, it was weird of them not to switch ends and make us kick to the loft first.
You raise a good point with regard to the reaction time which I did not consider. I agree that the penalties should have been retaken. Very poor refereeing, in my opinion, of such an important match. I truely hope that our Wembley match is decided during the match, and we avoid penalty shoot-out.
I thought so too. I'm only going by what the commentators said. It would make more sense that Sevilla won the coin toss and wanted to take them in front of their own supporters and Benfica choose to go first.
I'm sure this has been discussed on other strands but should it go to penalties on Saturday week where on earth are we going to find 5+ takers from out of the players still likely to be on the pitch after 120 mins? Austin Barton ...?
In the book 'Why England Lose', (an incredible book to anyone who hasn't read it) they calculated the team who take their penalty first wins 60% of the time, a massive percentage when you think about it!
They may have got it wrong as it makes zero sense to have two tosses, they don't do 2 pre match for kick off and ends so why do it for pens?
Morrison I have a feeling Yun will take one Simpson Kranky or benayoun Those who scare me, Dunne, Traore and Hoilett. I picked the FBs as they are good strikers of the ball but I think Zamora would be in there for one of them.
I'd love to know if doing it in front of your fans has any effect or not but going first is way more than a statistical anomoly.
I don't buy that at all. A goalie chooses which way to go during the run. Unless they have stayed central for a straight one they won't try and change upon it kicking. If it was as you suggest why do so many keepers go the wrong way? Jumping forward gains an advantage to whichever way they've chosen to go.
If they take one step forward, they aren't going sideways which means they can't dive as far sideways, blocking out an extra few inches from being closer doesn't make up for that fact. So anyone just has to get a pen one yard inside the post and a goalie who steps forward can't get it. A goalie who dives right away can get there. I always think its best not to dive at least half the time. At least one goes down the middle and Charlie's pen would have been saved if the goalie didn't dive. Also never dive if the player has a long run up, it usually means a blast down the middle.
Agree to differ on the advantage but totally agree not diving, especially on big pressure ones. So often the taker resorts to hammering it down the middle!
