My sister-in-law sent me this. This chap, known on Tw@tter as 'Pezza', has undertaken an analysis of the average minutes between penalties awarded. I've NO idea how accurate this analysis is (@JGF you may be able to verify?) but even if it's 50% true then it's still absolutely astounding! Either opposition teams reserve their cleanest, most clinical tackles for when they are playing Bristol City - or the EFL referees have an agenda against us - or we are simply unlucky - I'll let you decide, but these figures are amazing! For those who use Tw@tter here is the link to the post (I have expanded his pics at the bottom of this post): For those (like me) who don't use Tw@tter, here is the extract: Here is the first pic showing the stats from all 92 EFL teams - with Bristol City and Port Vale indicated: Here is the chart showing the stats from just the Championship teams:
Had Semenyo not scored last night I’m sure we’d have been awarded a pen, I’d prefer the goal mind, but the trip on Williams was nailed on and right n front of the ref too.
Yeah - hence my comment in the Matchday thread: 'Probably a good thing we weren't given a penalty to be honest - it hasn't happened for such a long time our players will have forgotten what they are and how to take them!...'
The minute per penalty is correct. The figures could be amazing, all the referees could be biased against mighty BCFC and part of a NWO conspiracy, or there is something else happening beyond luck (penalties are not improbable luck). Minute per penalty should be x box entries x time spent in opposition box = Figure. Bristol City’s box entries x time spent in opposition box has been very low leading to a position of very very low, we can’t expect regular penalties. As City’s play is altering, we can expect the number of penalties the team receives will soon alter.
Good point - time in the opposition's box isn't portrayed here. However, I wouldn't expect our time in the opposition's box to be as strikingly different to ALL the other teams in the Championship as these penalty stats suggest.
It’s a combination. City’s play where we didn’t put numbers of balls into the box x time spent in the box has to lead to less penalties. That can be examined further City were low possession and were spending low levels of time in the final third. When a team is low across all these metrics it has to have a very low outcome. City were strikingly low right across this measurable play. If we look at say Millwall they were low possession, but put a lot more balls into the box more directly from low possession and inevitably gain more penalties. If this doesn’t change as City’s football has altered/progressed we can put on our tin foil hats and blame the NWO.
I understand what you are saying Cliftonville (I think) - that the more time we spend in the box the more likely we are to draw a penalty - and the opposite also applies (the less time spent the less likely etc) - makes logical sense. Applying that logic then these stats would therefore imply that one possible reason for our lack of penalties is that we are spending 8 x LESS time in the opposition's box than ANY of our championship rivals. This MIGHT be true - I don't know how to check - , but I find it hard to believe - especially before Semenyo was back and we were lumping balls forward to Martin.
interesting go at an algorithm but is incomplete and vague eg box entries is it players... players and ball .... ball? ............time spent in box.. is it collective waiting for ball with ball etc etc etc or is it simply the time between each award which I suspect it is which would just need time of 1st penalty till second then to third then to fourth etc or simpler still time of first penalty to time of the next one divided by the number given ... other factors is how many players are members of EQUITY?
I think it's this - and as Cliftonville pointed out we haven't spent as much time in the box which makes it less likely to get a penalty awarded (of course) Despite this I'm still surprised that we wait 8 times as long for a penalty than ANY of our rivals though. A bit of time yes given out lack of time in the box, but EIGHT times as long? Really?
you can have loads of players in the box with no ball all waiting... penalty reason is not just players being in the box could be hand ball with no attacking player in box... .... or 1 player running into box is fouled so that would = maybe 3 secs! whereas 4 players in box waiting for 30 secss as play goes on outside of the box but ball doesnt arrive = 2mins corners/ free kicks where ball doesnt make the box have a rethink!
I have understand the arguments and can see their validity, the only thing I would throw into the ring is the amount of obvious penalties we have not been given, I wonder if refs are loathed to give us one as they are aware of our record and fear we therefore are more likely to be ‘trying it on’ as we feel we have too in order to get a decision.
It’s not solely about time spent in the box. Box entries is the ball being passed, crossed or dribbled into the box. City have been very low and bottom of these measurements. Yes, City played a high proportion of balls into Martin, but that does not equal the ball sticking in the final third and leading to controlled possession around the opponent’s box, another condition that leads to penalties. What City saw was a high % of turnover of possession in the final third, a condition that doesn’t lead to more penalties v less. Posssession stats low below 50%. Crossses, dribbles, passes into box low. Ball held in opponents box low. Any equation has to come up with Bristol City play formerly meaning a very low penalty creation count. BCFC penalty creation looks uneven, but can be understood logically. Luck? Luck is a measureable improbable that happens to all, everything else is a controllable where teams having more luck with penaltiies influence the number with elements of play. Or we can blame the refs and NWO here. Really? All the refs are sharing a collective biased mindset v one team in the evil BCFC. Get the foil out!
looking at the lack of bookings for "diving" in or out of the box seems we dont do it as much as others. Would compliment Pezza on his details as is does show a concern, [ however ] his table can only be a like for like if taking only the games played within the championship over that time [ 1st November 2020 to date ..assume date is first penalty in serires? of BCFC ] Watford / Norwich eg === was in it then not in it now back in it etc etc etc Sunderland just in it ! This could be an oversight in calculations / has taken into consideration so far this season it is 810 mins of football take Sunderland no penalties so far so last penalty would be first minute of season with 8o9 min and counting to get first average [ bar graph shows something like 500 mins ] so indication includes time in div 1 where quality of play may result in more or less penalty chances?? A good chart to show BCFC lack of pens though!
I didn’t suggest a bias, that’s deliberate, more an unconscious unwillingness to believe we’re not trying to hoodwink them into giving one. The alternative is it’s all a coincidence, and I don’t believe in coincidence
Then they are bias , not deliberately, but Unconsciously. I don’t think they set out to do it, but when an incident happens it is part of the thought process, they are human after all.
