Paddy Power Gold Cup Debate- Air Your Thoughts And Fancies.

Below I give a brief summary of the main contenders for this Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup.
What are your thoughts on the race?

Poquelin.
He loves this trip and course. At first glance, he seems to have a mountain of a task, but with the 7lbs claimer reducing his weight to a competitive 11st 5lbs, he would be carrying 2lbs less than last year- when he finished fifth (in a better race) behind Little Josh, Dancing Tornado, and Long Run.

Wishful Thinking.He has earned every pound of his weight and is ultra-consistent. He’s nothing in hand of Loosen My Load- on their running behind Noble Prince, and Calgary Bay has a 13lbs weight pull for a 3+ lengths beating over course and distance last January. Very game animal.

Oiseau De Nuit.Festival winner who ran really well behind Medermit at Exeter recently. He hasn’t actually won over this trip but is very consistent and reliable. Fairly weighted and sure to run well.

Loosen My Load.He’ll go to post very fit, but I feel Wishful Thinking may still overturn his weight advantage.
His jumping is sound though, and his connections really fancy him.

Mon Parrain.
This five year old French import’s jumping was sensational when he made his debut at Sandown- and he hacked up. Subsequently he jumped the Aintree fences with the same deftness and, after looking an assured winner two out, he found nothing against the finishing kick of Always Waining. However, he did carry 11st 6lbs and conceded 16lbs to the winner, so it has to rank as a great effort from a young horse.
The money has certainly gone on him this week, and one or two bookies have predicted he could go as low as 2/1 on the day.

Great Endeavour.Finished sixth in the race last year and is closely handicapped with both Calgary Bay and Poquelin on his running behind the latter’s victory over course and distance in December.
Definitely a fighting chance.

Daves Dream.For me, the dark horse of the race. Barry Geraghty has chosen him in preference to Quantitativeeasing, and he has NEVER LOST his first race of the season. Make of that what you will, because he is still lightly raced and comes from Henderson’s powerful yard.

Holmwood Legend.
A very consistent animal who showed improved form last season, but would need to improve further to turn the tables on Poquelin- based on their April race over the course and distance.

The Giant Bolster.
Well fancied by connections, he’s had a mixed bag over the course- winning, falling, and unseating rider from his three efforts last season. He could go close, but will his jumping stand up?

Calgary Bay.His weight of 10st 2lbs is the lowest he has ever carried in his chasing career. Most of his races have been over 3 miles+ but ironically he has only ever won ONE chase- over this course and distance nearly three years ago.
Poquelin’s inclusion means he is carrying his true handicap allocation and, if reproducing his best form, he must have a good chance.

Noble Alan.This consistent eight year old was most unlucky last time out at Market Rasen- when looking an assured winner but unseating his rider at the last.
Last December he was staying on strongly when falling three out behind Poquelin, Great Endeavour, and Calgary Bay.
Normally he’s an assured jumper and his minimum weight gives him a fighting chance.

Summary.
Mon Parrain could be anything this year, but his price is awful value.
I’ve always felt that there’s a big race in both Noble Alan and Calgary Bay. On last year’s AP Gold Cup form, Noble Alan would have gone very close to winning, and was going better than Calgary Bay who finished a good fourth behind the winner, Poquelin, and Great Endeavour.

Verdict.
Despite Mon Parrain, I feel his stablemate Poquelin has a tremendous chance – he goes well for a lad, as demonstrated by winning here under Ian Popham last December.
David Pritchard now claims 7lbs and his best price of 28/1 (Skybet) is great each way value. Off his reduced weight of 11st 5 lbs, there is nothing in the race that is handicapped to beat him on last season’s Cheltenham form, albeit the handicapping is close.

What are your fancies?

 

With my fancy Noble Prince out of the race, I'm going to have to reconsider. I can't be having the 2 at the top of the weights, I feel there weight will prove to much for them.

I realy like Loosen My Load for this, although he's a bridle horse, I still like his mark of 153, he has put up some dodgy performances il admit, but I feel this trip is his optimum, and he apears to have ran some of his best races at Cheltenham. 16/1 looks a good price aswell

 

Oiseau de Nuit 40/1 and Aerial 25/1 both for a place. (Courtesy of Timeform)

 

At this minute the two who really look interesting to me are Quantativeeasing and Swincombe Rock. Both are second season chasers and both could easily be better than their marks. I would sway towards the former at the minute but I shan't be backing either until the day.

 

Disappointed Noble Prince isn't lining up. Getting weight from Wishfull Thinking he'd have been hard to rule out...

As it stands it's not original at all but if Mon Parrian's not a silly price on Saturday I'd say that's where I'd be going. Noble Alan at a decent price is a reasonable each way prospect.

 

I have a feeling that by the end of this season we'll all be looking back at this race and thinking how crazy in retrospect it was to consider any horse in this field could give Mon Parrain weight and beat him. By the end of the season I can see the Nicholl's favourite as a leading contender for either the Ryanair or in an open year the Queen Mother. I love Wishful Thinking and I can see him chasing the winner home.

 

I was leaning towards Great Endeavour as my e/w selection but I have changed my mind after a good form analysis this evening.

Wishful Thinking- At 7/1, I do think he rates a very good bet as he is proven at a very high level and has that advantage of experience over Mon Parrain. His two performances at the end of last season, beating Medermit 10 lengths at Aintree before heading to Punchestown and beating the promising Blazing Tempo, suggest he is a serious player in the PP Gold Cup. Will race prominently and with a clean round of jumping he has to go very close.

Mon Parrain- He was the most impressive jumper I saw last season, although the way he found nil at Aintree does worry me. However, he is young, wil only get stronger and surely has the potential to be a huge player over the next 2-3 seasons. Could be special, but I'm not taking any of the 3/1. Let's not get our heads in the clouds, and try not to laugh when I say this, but I would rather have a dabble on him for the King George than to back at these prices for the PP Gold Cup. If he wins this impressively he would be a tailor-made King George horse IMO- big jumps and would get the 3m at Kempton if he stays the 2m 5f at Cheltenham. That's if you take the view that connections have reservations about Master Minded over 3m after his reappearance. That's a whole different debate though, so hold fire on that and allow me to look stupid.

Great Endeavour is only 7 and if he can find any improvement at all he would be a major player in my book. Has some good runs to his name atm Cheltenham, including a win, a 2nd, and a 3rd sandwiched by a 0 and a fall. 6th in this last year, should be a stronger horse now, looks fairly treated off 10 stone 3, and David Pipe can certainly get one ready first time out. Interesting, but might find a couple too good.

Loosen My Load- Probably the value bet of the race for me. De Bromhead has his team in decent order, and as I am a fan of the Jewson race from last year, I really think this horse will back up the form with a very solid display to at least make the frame. Can forgive his run last time over an inadequate trip. His form at 2 and a half miles reads 1321, and he boasts smart enough form in behind the likes of Realt Dubh, Noble Prince, Ghizao and Quito De La Roque over his career so far. Any improvement must see him go very close. The best e/w shot of the race at 16/1, and my play for the race without question.


I have it between those 4, but preference for betting purposes have to be LOOSEN MY LOAD 16/1 e.w and a saver on Wishful Thinking, who if continuing his upward curve could turn out to be very smart. Mon Parrain might well bolt up, but as I have said, I think he is one to watch develop rather than take 3/1 in a race where, lest we forget, Long Run was beaten last season.

 

I agree with everything you say Toppy. The one thing putting me off Loosen My Load is that he does seem to shirk a battle. He seems to either win well or fold relatively tamely. I doubt he's going to win this on the bridle so i therefore have my concerns with him in this regard.

Not sure what your thoughts were on that . . .

 

Nice write up tam I too fancy poquelin, he loves this course and was only beaten by a good albertas run and has beaten a handful of this field last december, as you say Mon Parrain can be anything but the value has gone! But I reckon he will be up there come the final fence.

 

The Jewson as I've said all along was the strongest novice chase of the festival, despite the fact it was a G2. Loosen My Load did dispute the lead at the business end, seemingly pulling double, but the tank did empty rather quickly, it must be said. Though the first 2 Noble Prince and Wishfull Thinking are top class, and at the weights Loosen My Load should reverse the Jewson form with Wishfull Thinking

 

There are certainly doubts, but I think he has to be worth another chance as he develops as a 7-8YO, and I think that Jewson form will end up looking pretty good, so I'm sticking with that form line and I think he looks the right each-way percentage call as he is still relatively unexposed, clearly talented, and well worth his place in the lineup.

 

My thoughts : Loosen my Load wins
My fancies : Emma Spencer

 

Noble Prince is massively overrated IMO, Beaten by an handful of horses in the past and hardly the most consistent. I'd fancy Wishful Thinking to reverse form with him if they met again including Cheltenham and I'd have fancied him to beat NP had he turned up tomorrow. Mon Parrain is interesting, And I always find it hard to oppose Ruby he looks a smart horse so I expect him to be there or there abouts but I fancy Wishful Thinking to win tomorrow...

 

Istabraq.....He was beaten by Realt Dubh over 2 miles, which is a trip far to short for him, he was crying out for a step up in trip, hence why he bolted up at Cheltenhham, and even then he won like further would bring out more improvement.

If your holding his defeat in the powers Gold Cup against him, then think again, and rewatch the race, he was cruising all over Realt Dubh, and had the race at his mercy, before he fell. It was just one of those things.

He goes on Sunday over 2 miles against Big Zeb, which doesn't look ideal for him, but when he's up to 2m4 and 3m he will prove to be the best novice from last season. Mark my words

 

Backed great end ew earlier in the week...

 

All over mon parrain for this, he looks like hes really filled out and he could well make a mockery of his mark. I think the way to play this is back to play, he is going to be coming round the final bend travelling like the wrath of god at which point lay your stake off and see if he finds off the briddle.

 

NOBLE ALAN, had this one in my notebook straight away after his LTO when unseating his rider when cruising and looking all out the winner.

He has previous form at Cheltenham sadly the best is over hurdles; however, in his only other run there he fell when a close up 4th when he was in with every chance, the winner that day was Poquelin.

In his latest outing once again he was held up and was just running on to lead when unseating his rider two out. Im am sure he will be stripped fitter for those two races, however, the big question mark is his jumping, with a clear round off his rating of 142 he is a solid EW bet at odds of 20/1 and is Nicky Richards only runner at Cheltenham over the 3 day meeting and the booking of Dougie Costello is another plus.