Our Season In Comparative Stats - I Braved It But Beware, This Is Not Pretty.

So, in order to ascertain statistically where we'd be this year, I compared this season's results to last years. When I did it a month ago on another thread, we were just 1/3 points behind last year, but with fixtures to come that would allow us to catch the rate of point scoring. Needless to say, we've had some shocking results since then, so let's have a look and see if we can illuminate things a little.

This season with relative performance of last season in brackets
Spurs - Home (+2 points)
Chelsea - Lost Away (-3 points)
Villa - Draw Home (-2 points)
Everton - Draw Away (+1 Point)
Norwich - Won Home (+/- 0 Points)
Man Utd - Lost Home (-3 points)
Sunderland - Draw Away (-2 points)
West Brom - Won Home (+3 points)
Liverpool - Draw Away (+1 point)
Swansea - Lost Home (-1 point)
Stoke - Lost Away (-3 points)
Wigan - Won Home (+/- 0 points)
Fulham - Lost Away (+/-0 points)
Man City - Lost Home (+/- 0 Points)

So, we can determine we are -7 points off last season's haul from the same teams. 16 points instead of 23 points.

Now, the keen of eye will have noticed that I didn't include the results of Reading, West Ham and Southampton. This is because they don't have values from last season, having just come up. What we can do is compare with last season's relegated clubs for a loose data set.
Form against relegated clubs of last season:
Wolves, we beat away and drew at home.
Blackburn, we beat home and away.
Bolton, we beat home and away.

It's obvious that's a wonderful record. One we obviously haven't kept up this season, at further cost to our tally. We've already drawn with Reading, lost to West Ham at home, and Southampton away. At best we can now get 10 points out of 18 from these fixtures, while last season we got 16. We'd be down to 59 points without the other terrible results we've had!


Our next fixtures (up til Feb):

QPR (Home) - Last year we won 1-0
Man Utd (Away) - Last year we drew 1-1
Arsenal (Away) - Last year we lost 2-1
Everton (Home) - Last year we won 2-1
Norwich (Away) - Last year we lost 4-2
Reading (Home) - (no corresponding fixture)
Villa (Away) - Last year we drew 1-1

The same results (and subbing in relegated team result) would give us 11 points. That'd be 28 points from 24 games. We'd move up the league, just, but still be in a relegation scrap. If you look at the fixtures, the positive results aren't even a potential certainty this year. Getting something from Man Utd, Everton, Norwich and Villa will be tough. To do better than last year, we would have to beat Man Utd away (not going to happen), or get something at Arsenal (might happen?), beat Norwich at a home-base which is one of the most secure in the league at the moment (maybe?), or beat Villa away, a fixture I can't remember us winning (hope so)... So we have potential to catch last year up a bit, and we need to, but it will be hard to keep our heads above water even if we play like last year.

After Feb:
Chelsea (Home) - Lost
Spurs (Away) - Lost
Southampton (Home) - No corresponding fixture
Swansea (Away) - Won
Stoke (Home) - Won
Wigan (Away) - Lost
Man City (Away) - Lost
Fulham (Home) - Won
Sunderland (Home) - Draw
West Brom (Away) - Won
Liverpool (Home) - Won
West Ham (Away) - No corresponding fixture
QPR (Away) - Draw
Arsenal (Home) - Draw

That's 24 points (adding in wins from relegated teams), so we'd have 52 and be top half, around 8th/9th.

What you should notice is that if we keep to our record last year, where we were in incredible form and had most of our players fit for long spells, we'll end with 52. Troubling, no? What is a team bereft of form, confidence and supposedly in the midst of an injury crisis going to do?! Looking at the sheet, there isn't many places where we can do one better than last year, as you'd expect, and it highlights how many incredible results we had last year that we will have to emulate to finish near the top half. Dropping further behind the rate, as you can only expect from the comparison, will mean we'll be closer to that mark of 40 than we'd like . Looking at the table, 40 will probably be relative comfort at the end of the season, and it might be 33/34 that takes you down.

On reflection, last season was even better than we remember it! A nice positive indeed, that we are afforded so few opportunities to improve upon it fixture for fixture. Another positive, if we stay up, we've got tonnes we can improve on next year!!!

 

I'd be content with a mid table finish mate.

As long as we don't lose many players because of it.

In a way the injuries to a lot of our players could be a blessing in disguise. It may keep them humble.

I have full belief that we will push on next year and finish in a top 8 position.

 

Well we're definitely down then, ill not bother going to any games as I know what's going to happen. Pure doom.

 

Tash, if we get mid-table, I will be the first to join you in a jizz-parade

This season really is a write-off (at best) in terms of the league, but we have the cups, which is why I'd be inclined to agree with you on strength of playing squad in those comps! If you aren't going to do anything in the league, why not try for a cup? I'd rather we had something to look forward to, rather than just fulfilling our fixtures in the hope we don't go down.

 

Who said that? Nobody.

 

Also, I have noted a mistake in my calculations... Check above for more sunshine

 

We'll be top 10. I honestly believe it.

Where did I put my Vicodin................

 

Well we can statistically finish 8th now, according to my re-calculations , if we go the rest of the season on last year's form. But as I think I've made clear, it's going to be very difficult to emulate the kind of results we have last year.

 

We're still only 6 points from it. If we beat QPR we'll be even more close to it.

 

Stats is my thing.

That's why i'm thinking 10th at best... Now more likely 12th-13th.

Thanks for the thread.

 

If? Don't you mean when?

 

I take nothing for granted. They're unbeaten since 'arry took charge.

 

Everyone expected us to lose points on last year, so the fact we have isn't surprising at all. The amount we've lost has been bitterly disappointing, however. Yet there are still games we could pick up points where we stumbled last year.

I think measuring from this point on would be a very interesting way of gauging Pardew's job performance this year. 40-48 is probable and achievable and would represent a disappointing write-off league performance, 49-53 would be very good, and anymore and we'll have had a fantastic second half and Pardew will deserve a knighthood!