The November Handicap used to signal the end of Flat Racing until the following March but we have long been used to all year round Flat action since the advent of the All-Weather tracks. Normally a tricky affair made harder by so many contenders having had busy seasons. One runner who has had it very quiet this year is John Gosden's Royal Line, who has only had two runs and not been seen since winning well at Epsom in June. I did toy with the idea of backing him despite the 199 day absence, purely because the odds of 12/1 were likely to shrivel nearer the day and I found it hard to envisage him bigger than 8/1 come the two day decs. The trouble for me is that the horse was 5/1 Fav for last year's renewal and he was a bit disappointing. He is also 9 lbs higher this season, on 105, than he was in last year's contest and both his efforts at Doncaster have been disappointing. Strong connections but just too many questions for me here. Looking around for a bet here, there is very little jumping out as value because of how many runners there are priced around about the 10/1 mark. It looks pretty scandalous pricing really, particularly Paddy Power, who have TWO at 6/1 and one at 8/1 in their book. Come of it Paddy Power, never mind the silly adverts, just give us some decent prices for christ's sake. Too many runners to go through them all in detail, so I will just summarise that I have concerns for Now Children if the ground stays fast, while the Haggas horse My Lord And Master looks grim value at 6/1 with Paddy Power, given that he has not won a race this season. To Be Wild is popular and in to near favourite with some firms. He has been off for a year and a half though, so even if he was 4th behind Hawkbill in a Group 3 when last seen, he'll surely find it hard to tote 9st 8lb to victory against race hardened rivals who nearly all get weight from him. Morning Wonder is prominent in the betting for the Kevin Ryan yard. At number 36 in 40 declared, he needs others to come out in order to get a run. I prefer other contenders to him. Reshoun is reasonably prominent in the market and ended a run of three ducks by winning last time. Two months absence perhaps makes it look like he is aimed here but his win was over 2F further on heavy ground at Haydock and with the current going much faster you have to question the pace in his profile and he's not for me here. Inscribe is near the head of affairs in the betting and he comes from an in form yard in trainer Ger Lyons but he has his form over shorter, on mainly soft surfaces. That leaves two boxes unticked and at 10 and 12s in the lists he doesn't appeal to me for a wager. Everything For You is another with a chance for the multiply entered Kevin Ryan but his 4 lbs extra just seemed to stop him last time and this is 2F further than he usually runs over. Pretty consistent but maybe not well handicapped with the longer trip in mind. Birds Of Prey is interesting from the Paul Nicholls yard and ran a good race in narrowly finishing second last time. He seemed fine at the 12F that day but that race has worked out shockingly, not a single winner in 31 subsequent runs. Others appeal more at the odds available. Hopefully I have covered the leading candidates who are likely to get in and it just leaves the selection to summarise on. Buzz is a short name but hopefully will prove a sweet one. The gelded son of Derby hero Motivator has had a good and progressive season. His first sign of ability was a second place in a Sandown handicap in July over 10F. That race worked out well throwing up eight other wins from six different horses afterwards. Buzz himself won next time out when stepped up to 11F and he won again on his following start when tackling the 12F he will face here. The step up to 14F next time seemed like a severe jump and it backfired as the horse weakened and ran his poorest race for a while. Dropped 4 furlongs to 10F next time was a bit strange but on the soft ground the gelding managed to land a narrow win. Hopefully he is set up to run well here, back to a probable best trip of 12F he should cope with whatever going he gets and as a 4 time winner from just 9 runs he has a good strike rate and has very few miles on the clock. He's improved 20 lbs since July and appeals as a sort with more to come. I would have liked to see Hughie Morrison in a bit better form but after a great run from Marmelo in the Melbourne Cup, perhaps small consolation awaits. At 10/1 Buzz is just about acceptable as marginal value, since I feel his profile would look sexier if he hadn't tried the 14F race which broke his winning sequence, plus, given the questions over plenty others at similar odds he makes more appeal as the selection. Good luck if playing in this annual head scratcher. 3.15 Doncaster Saturday BUZZ 10/1 to BEE the one to beat.
17 out and 23 left declared for the race now. As I had suspected, Morning Wonder misses out and the other prominent runner in the early betting to miss the race is Ger Lyons' Inscribe. No surprises that John Gosden's Royal Line is favourite and the early 12's was tempting had you wanted to buy for a dollar and sell for two. I feel he's too short at a general 7/1, given that he was disappointing as favourite last year, is higher in the handicap now and was last seen in April. That Epsom race has worked out well though and the stable is the most powerful in the land. I just don't understand why backers wouldn't take 12/1 earlier yet will clamber to get half those odds on Saturday. Buzz is relatively weak in the betting but there are sexier options out there. Time will tell as always.
Well, should have gone with my first instinct and taken 12/1 Royal Line, who had it in control from a way out. Drifted to a good 9/1 SP, unusual for a Gosden runner. Buzz ran OK in 5th, he had plenty to do after being held up and my heart sank when I saw how far down the field he was sitting. The ground softened considerably from when I made my preview, so ones I thought unlikely to feature at the time got their ground. My other bet Anasheed, who I settled on because of being exposed and 14/1, travelled well for a long way in the Gillies Fillies stakes but her run petered out and she was 5th in the end. Maid To Remember and Queen Of Time, who I wanted to oppose, at about 7/2-4/1 odds, were huge drifters and both disappointed after early market support. Probably the softer ground played havoc with some of them and I would probably give Anasheed another chance next season on better ground. She could perhaps be nicely handicapped if they go that route. That's probably it for me this year as I don't follow the jumpers outside of Cheltenham really and it's a mine-field ante-post for most races there as well. Be lucky
