OK; some of you may have seen my statistical analysis of points totals over the last 10 seasons in the "moaning" thread, and I have continued this today looking at the last 10 seasons who was top after 18 matches and where they finished. In the last 2 seasons the team that were top now (after 18 games) failed to get promoted! Southend finished 4th last season and lost in the play offs and Port Vale finished 11th in 2011!! Over the full 10 years 3 sides failed to finish in top 3 having been top after 18 games. But that does mean that 7/10 times the leaders at this stage have gone on to get promoted. The average points total is 36, Southend last season and Walsall in 2007 had more pts 41, (Walsall went up as Champions), and only Wycombe in 2008/9 had a 7 point lead at this point (they went on to finish 3rd), overall the leaders after 18 games have finished as champions twice, 2nd 4 times and 3rd once. I know there are also some people who like to compare the current side with Pulis 1st promotion side, back in 1995 we had 36 pts after 18 games and we had conceded just 6 goals but overall GD was +19 compared with our current +21.
Still on course for my prediction of 83 points. Regardless of the match outcomes, my current pre-season forecasts are bang on the nail at this stage with 40 points... please log in to view this image I cannot show you the entire table because it exceeds upload limits for the site.
