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Grand Prix thread Not606 2016 Malaysian Grand Prix Chat and Predictions

Discussion in 'Formula 1' started by taeleon, Sep 26, 2016.

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Take your pick at who you think will come away with the big trophy this weekend.

Poll closed Oct 2, 2016.
  1. Nico Rosberg

    13.3%
  2. Lewis Hamilton

    73.3%
  3. Daniel Ricciardo

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Sebastian Vettel

    13.3%
  5. Kimi Raikkonen

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Max Verstappen

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. Valtteri Bottas

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Sergio Perez

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. Nico Hulkenberg

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. Other, please state in bold in the thread.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. taeleon

    taeleon Well-Known Member

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    Location: Sepang International Circuit, Sepang, Malaysia
    Capacity: 80,000
    FIA Grade: 1
    Major events:
    FIA Formula One
    Malaysian Grand Prix
    FIM MotoGP
    Malaysian Grand Prix
    Malaysia Merdeka Endurance Race
    Grand Prix circuit: 1999 - Present
    Length: 5.543 km (3.445 mi)
    Turns: 15
    Most wins Grand Prix (drivers):
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    Sebastian Vettel (4).
    Most wins (constructors):
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    Ferrari (7)
    FRI 30th Sep P1: 03:00
    FRI 30th Sep P2: 07:00
    SAT 1st Oct P3: 07:00
    SAT 1st Oct Q : 10:00
    SUN 2nd Oct R : 08:00
    *All times are BST*

    2015 results:
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    Current Championship:
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    Predictions Championship:
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    #1
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  2. taeleon

    taeleon Well-Known Member

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    Please can a mod sticky this and un-sticky the Singapore thread. Thank you.
     
    #2
  3. taeleon

    taeleon Well-Known Member

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    Tyre selections for this weekend:

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    #3
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  4. EternalMSC

    EternalMSC Well-Known Member

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    Hamilton and Raikkonen going aggressive into this weekend.
     
    #4
  5. Smithers

    Smithers Well-Known Member
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    I'd like to see a non Merc win and hope Ferrari (or RB) could pull of a last year. Can't see it though and with the likely rain I can't see past Lewis.
     
    #5
  6. moreinjuredthanowen

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    If it rains it will be interesting f ok r sure. Timing of the rain and how it affects things is so unpredictable

    I think the way ferrari are calling things from the pit wall they will probably miss the opportunity if is does come.

    I think why not plump for hamilton in this one.
     
    #6
  7. happyal

    happyal Active Member

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    Fingers crossed for a good race, as long as we get that I'll be happy with who ever wins.
     
    #7
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  8. JonnyBaws

    JonnyBaws Well-Known Member

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    Is it forecast to rain?
    Just checked.. looks like it'll be a wet one. Could favour the RBs and maybe even bring some joy to the McLarens.
    Rosberg for some reason, in the wet this year in the W07 hasn't looked comfortable.
    If it stays a wet race and Rosberg doesn't get a good setup, can see him struggling, top three of Hamilton, Danny Ric and Vettel, in what order, I don't know but have gone for the safe bet of Hamilton.
     
    #8
  9. moreinjuredthanowen

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    I heard it was last weekend so i presume we will find out as the thing crystallises.
    Its all about when it rains and who reacts best.

    Last year it rained in q2 or q3 right?

    I think if its predictable as in all wet then Hamilton won at silverstone under a safety car start... rosberg ended up behind verstappen?

    Anyone can spin off in the wet its kind of about who do you believe in most and who won't plank it.

    Rain could be a great equaliser for everyone but i've far more faith at this point in red bull than in ferrari to make the right calls and give thier drivers the best chance.

    Ricciardo for me it think, if hamilton does'nt win.

    Rosberg if in control i don't think will mess it up... hamilton if not in front i could see mess u but equally be genius and pass everyone.
     
    #9
  10. cosicave

    cosicave Well-Known Member

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    I reckon you've got most things covered there Owen; but here's a curved ball: If the conditions are variable, watch out for a good swan-song from Button in what will almost certainly be his final year.

    Other variables on the variable theme:

    • Safety Car is a real possibility and could upset a lot of strategists. Oh, and a teenager. These guys will be earning their money this weekend and will need to think quickly and creatively.
    • Verstappen will get frustrated and probably go backwards.
    • Hamilton will probably win.
    • Ricciardo will probably have a good race and I expect him on the podium; probably 2nd.
    • If qualifying is dry with a variable race, 'the other' Rosberg will probably appear, getting a good grid slot but falling back into the clutches of someone with a name beginning with 'V' and/or driving a red car.
    • Alonso will finish higher than he begins but in variable conditions, I expect Button to finish ahead.
    • Perez will want to go long. Depending on the timing of any rain, he could lose out big time or become a giant killer.
    • It will probably be a better than average race, worthy of some 8s in the Awards thread.
    • Ericcson will do nothing special.*
    - - -o0o- - -
    *Yeah, you already knew that one.
    :)
     
    #10

  11. Smithers

    Smithers Well-Known Member
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  12. BrightLampShade

    BrightLampShade Well-Known Member
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    #12
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  13. eddie_squidd

    eddie_squidd Well-Known Member

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    Hamilton needs to win this. I wonder if having an "average" teammate is actually better motivation than having a top class one. Hamilton is expected to beat Rosberg and will not want to lose out to him over a championship season. There would be no shame in being beaten by an Alonso or a Vettel, but being beaten by Rosberg would hurt. I can see him being very motivated.
     
    #13
  14. moreinjuredthanowen

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    I think with this being 6th last race hamilton and rosberg will both be feeling the nerves:

    rosberg only has 8 points in hand now.

    1. Assume mercedes are 1/2 for rest of season(big assumption)

    If there is a 4/2 split of wins form now til season end for hamilton that would be 136 points to hamilton and 122 to rosberg. = hamilton wins by 6 points on final race. For this to occur Hamilton would want to be winning this weekend. so he doesn't have to win 4 from 5.

    For Rosberg he really wants to just trade blows with hamilton, 3 wins 3 seconds and he is there. So he needs to get that started this week.... no pressure.


    2. Assume someone has an accident.

    If either drive has an accident this weekend, a bad start, a tyre blows, an engine goes whatever

    If its rosberg he will be 17 points down so that is bad with 5 to go but not impossible to get back. He would need 4 wins out of 5... 17 back with 5 to go. 4x25+18= 118, 4 seconds and 1 first = 97... again skin of teeth

    By contrast Hamilton if he goes out this weekend. would be 33 points back... and form there assuming its 1/2s thats needing 5 wins to get back. 125 v 90 = 35 points.


    This one feels like the sharp end to me. Hamilton cannot afford a DNF unless he wants to be relying on luck so no bad starts, hamilton needs to win 4 from 6 assuming rosberg has no issues.

    3. What if another team sticks thier oar in?

    Really this would be repeating the bad starts. Hamilton has gone 3-2-3 in results in last 3. Ricciardo looks most likley to get in there Are there any tracks where Red bull are strong coming??

    the easy answer is with an 8 point lead rosberg could win 3 and finished 2nd 3rd and 3rd in rest and at this point win the title.

    Bascially hamilton would need to win 4 (100pts) v 2(50points) rosbergs and if rosberg managed 4 seconds places (72) them hamilton would need at least one second place...

    so 4 wins, 1 2nd 1 3rd = 133 points Rosberg could take max 122?

    that would win hamilton the title.

    I THINK rosberg would have 10 wins i nthis and hamilton 10 wins also... so I'm not sure if hamilton got 2 3rds it would be a tie? not sure who'd get the title


    ...........................

    if you aint bothered reading that ramble or its just drivel this boils down to Hamilton is pretty much at the point of must win this race and cannot afford a DNF here.

    Rosberg needs to be clean and get 3 more wins IMO. If he is as clam as he was in singapore it will be interesting
     
    #14
  15. eddie_squidd

    eddie_squidd Well-Known Member

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    If he can be a clam it will certainly be very interesting, not to mention surreal.
     
    #15
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  16. moreinjuredthanowen

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    <laugh>

    MITO's famous spelling strikes again!
     
    #16
  17. Big Ern

    Big Ern Lord, Master, Guru & Emperor

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    you never know, he might just scallop off into the distance
     
    #17
  18. moreinjuredthanowen

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    Interesting article on sky predicting rosberg to win by 2 points. Done by calculating predicted points from prior performances at each track coming for each driver


    It really looks like this one is pivotal
     
    #18
  19. Sportista

    Sportista Well-Known Member

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    Unless unreliability interferes, it's going to be close for sure (tm). If Hamilton wins by less than 9 points then that's basically the swing that came from Nico letting him by at Monaco. I believe that is going to prove vital in the end.
     
    #19
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  20. Big Ern

    Big Ern Lord, Master, Guru & Emperor

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    I think it'll come down to who fluffs their start.
     
    #20
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