NH Racing – Can you make it pay???

Very simple question, team. But one that, I guess, has a far from easy answer. National Hunt Racing. Is it possible, nowadays, to produce a profit long term from wagering in this sphere???

I think that these days the entire NH season can be split into 3 – (i) all the races with a prizepot of less than £10k, (ii) Listed / Graded affairs and races at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals and (iii) everything bally else.

I’ve now reached the stage where I cast little more than a cursory glance at races in the (i) and (iii) bracket. This is because I firmly believe that in section (i) there hasn’t been a race run, in the Isle, where something hasn’t been occurring (i.e. horse having an ‘easy’ run to achieve a perch reduction, a contender being pounds ‘well in’ due to having had several ‘easy’ recent runs, animal being ‘prepped’ for something else, horse having a ‘light’ introductory few runs to secure a ridiculously low initial rating, animal having a ‘light’ run in order to boost fitness, schooling in public, etc., etc.) for several terms and the form in section (iii) is so unpredictable and haphazard you can’t say with even a modicum of confidence what will happen!

Those in section (ii) are much different affairs, in my opinion, usually contested by horses of the highest quality (with formlines easier to compare and who are much more consistent) and as there is, typically, a considerably higher level of prizemoney on offer there is little reason for connections to be ‘at it’ in such events.

In the short term I can’t see my attitude changing and that any future wagers will be almost exclusively based within (ii). The only scenario that I could see to change this would be to create / develop and ‘angle’ which you felt could be exploited or to rely on reliable ‘I’ve been told…’ information – although these days in some races in section (i) you could have a monster bet on a horse who you believe / have ‘been told’ is a stone well-in only to find out, at the finish, one of its rivals was 20 lbs well in! A case of someone else’s plot being bigger than your own.

But what do you think, troops??? Am I incorrect in the above assumptions??? With the curtain set to fall on another NH term now seems to be an ideal time to review it, from a punting perspective, and ask if it can be profitable anymore. Thoughts, please.

 

I don't know why bumper races are classed as NH. There isn't a single obstacle to jump. What is the difference between a bumper and a flat race over the same distance?

On the original question, I have always considered races in categories (i) and (iii) as races to be avoided. Even category (ii) races which are handicaps are to be avoided in my opinion. I would avoid bumper races also as I haven't a clue where to start.

The problem is that in the races where the form is more reliable, the odds are generally on the short side as, by definition, the best horse should win and everyone knows which is (supposedly) the best horse. This makes it difficult to make a profit on these races because the strike rate has to be consistently high. Although you may have your money on the best horse, how many pounds superior is it? It doesn't take much for that superiority to be nullified; obstacles are in the way and there is therefore always the risk of a slip on landing, jockey misjudging the stride, a bump, loose horse etc to swiftly eradicate any advantage your horse had before the off and reduce your chances of winning. Also, a 10lb pull in the weights could make a lot of difference to some horses yet make bugger all difference to others. The weight carrying ability is often overlooked when weighing up form.

My opinion, for what it's worth, dodgy old business trying to make a long term profit in NH races

 

I can easily and do make a profit on football betting, but, if i was in a position where i was solely relying on this to make a profit to live off i dont think i could do it, you see things very differently when you have to win.
Horses in my opinion is far too difficult.

 

I gave up betting on National Hunt racing over thirty years ago. It quickly became apparent that most of them were totally crooked and the horses only won when they wanted; and it was much easier to get away with public schooling over three miles in the middle of February than it was over five furlongs in the middle of July. I guess it did not help that I knew a couple of guys that owned some ordinary nags and they only won when they wanted them to and they regularly got information from their yards when other horses were trying.

Pretty much the only bets I have on NH now are at the Cheltenham Festival for a bit of interest while watching it on the box. I avoid the handicaps like the plague as the horses with any decent form are priced (and weighted) accordingly and half the winners end up double figures with dodgy previous form.

 

I would guess anyone who wagered on the ‘Champion Novice Chase’ at Punchestown yesterday eve is now starting to despair of section (ii) as well! Cor blimey what was all that about, people?!?

Meanwhile, have the ‘Racing Post’ really gone for old boy Townend (or gone ‘nudge, nudge, wink, wink’ at the very least) this morning via their front page main headline and accompanying sub-heading??? I can't quite decide. I quote ‘Townend hit with 21 day ban for mystifying last fence manoeuvre’ and ‘Jockey ‘no comment’ after dramatic detour takes out rival’?!?