Well, after the Brexit referendum and The US Presidentil Election results behind us surely there must be some mileage in a Next French Presidential Election thread. After all, if Marine Le Pen should get in, who knows what might happen. She is known to be ante the EU and will probably pledge a Frexit referendum. If that happens and the French vote out I think QM will have his biggest orgasm ever The present betting suggests it's not out of the question
I got an email this lunchtime from a mate of mine – one that I was totally expecting – bragging about his latest political winning bet, although I noted that he did not bother to mention that he could have got much better odds this week than he got when he backed The Donald months ago at something like 3/1 or 7/2 (Hillary was something like 30/100 then). He has previously history – he backed Brexit (but also not at the best odds) and he was on The Bearded One at a decent price before he became odds-on favourite in the original Labour leadership contest. It would be hard to describe him as anti-Establishment but he has just been betting against the conventional on the grounds that so many are antipathetic to the political class generally and will vote for anything that is change, no matter how stupid it might appear to the rest of us. In his email, he did want me to come out and say that Marine Le Pen had no chance in the French election just so he could wind me up if she pulls off that upset. Whilst she has a small chance, I certainly would not be interested at the current odds. If we can believe any polls anymore, she certainly has some nationalist and right-wing popularity in France; however, the French political system is stacked against her (just as it was her father). The race to the French Presidency is a knockout competition. The two big parties are used to exchanging the Presidency between them and I do think that the incumbent François Hollande may not even get to stand as he has become so politically toxic that the Socialist Party are likely to oust him in favour of one of two other potential candidates, former Ministers Arnaud Montebourg and Benoît Hamon. The Republican Party (formerly the Union for Popular Movement) candidate will be one of Nicolas Sarkozy or Alain Juppé, both of whom are polling better than Hollande. Clearly the bookies think it will be Juppé. Their party is of the centre-right so perhaps they have most to fear from Le Pen defections. Most of the minor parties in France are of the left. When the Presidential race gets down to the final run off, if Marine Le Pen is one of them, history tells us that the voters of the left will vote tactically to defeat her – Socialist Party voters will back the Republican candidate because a centrist President of a different party is better than any candidate of the perceived far right. Unless there is a huge swelling of nationalist patriotism, anti-EU sentiment and anti-Establishment feeling in favour of Marine Le Pen, I think the best she can expect is to come a close second.
Does that make Marine Le Pen a good lay (bet) QM? Best priced 11/4 but WH and Lads have her at 2/1. Maybe wait until the 11/4 has gone and lay her at 2/1 or 5/2
I wouldn't write off Le Pen, the right wing ranters are attracting **** knuckles by the truck load. This trend has been around for a number of years now, and I think it'll continue to grow. The sad fact is that there are too many people out there who think the world has gone to hell in a hand basket, and thus, become susceptible to fear tactics. I feel as nations, we're becoming more and more inward looking and when this happens, the ugliness around us starts to take on an air of urgency. Folk finally start to put a voice to something they've felt for longer than they can remember, ie, it's so much harder to make ends meet. Where once a single income was enough to buy a home, it now in most cases, takes two incomes. Deep down inside heaps of people, there festers a feeling that society at large is being screwed from the top down, and someone or thing has to be blamed, and so the finger of guilt has to be pointed. And we have to start the blame game. The rich are getting richer and the poor (or in this case, the middle class) are wearing it in the rear end. And I don't know why, but it seems in times of discontent, racism becomes more openly pronounced. At the moment in the US, the Muslims and Mexicans are there for the **** kicking. We could all go on for ever in our assessments of where we stand as citizens of first world countries, and probably agree or disagree until the cows come home. As I see it, the problems are as much philosophical as fiscal. How do we as individuals, want to live in the richer countries of the world? We're addicted to our life styles. We chew through obscene amounts of money on things that would shock the peoples of third world nations. Whether we like it or not, a lot of our personal money worries are self inflicted. In saying that though, I'm not suggesting that we couldn't do with a better distribution of wealth, I'm merely saying that our incessant need for the latest phone, tablet, tv etc, isn't helpful. Look at the world around is, fast food outlets as far as the eye can see, with **** loads of people lined up for service. How many of these folk are into spending around a tenth of their wage in cigarettes? And of course we can't forget the punt can we? What percentage of our weekly grocery bill is dedicated to cakes, biscuits, soft drinks, sweets, yummy deserts etc? We in Australia have a population of 23 million, as of 2012, in the previous 12 months, households brought 1.7 million vehicles. Only 16% of Australians use public transport. I live in a lucky country, yet even here, ultra right wing parties have found seats in government, by resorting to a fear of outsiders and trading on voter's more base instincts. Bit like I said, this debate could go on forever.
Very good post, Cyc, but to introduce a bit of levity which, unfortunately, I am inclined to engage in far too often. I do hope the next French president will be cuddly and kissable for our dear chancellor here. Any 'Hunchback of Notre Dame' or 'Phantom of the Opera' winner would be unthinkable and would cause her immediate resignation?
Levity, schmevity! I am sure that 'Mutti' Angela would love a dashing young reincarnation of a former French President to stand by her side at various 'events'.
I am sure that Marine Le Pen would be a good lay (a bit of gallic blonde flair), but her niece Marion looks like a much better long term prospect. At the stakes I bet, the possible profit would not be worth the hassle on hedging this one.
Not usually one to pander to rightist fantasies however the above 'Carry On .......' deserves a special treat!
Le Pen 9/4 is a huge price.... again everyone ignoring just how disgruntled people are..... will hill taking no chances at 11/8.
The process of the French Presidential Election will act against Le Pen. She will not win 60% in the first round so the top two move to a second round. The vast majority who voted for 'losing' candidates in the first round will opt for the non Front National candidate in the second round so Marine, like her Holocaust denying dear old Pa, will be f.....d! Cyc; save your 'hard earned' whether virtual or real!
Seems you're dead right BK, Sarkozy tailed-off third for his party's nomination. Looks very much like Fillon will nail Juppe in the run-off. Fillon to beat Le Pen in the grand final? Frau Merkel will certainly hope so. Bet she's thinking "Oh please vote for me next year, really want to meet M.Fillon next year and have a little cuddle and a bussi".
'bussi' - had to look this one up! Despite my admiration for Frau Merkel I do not see 'Mutti' as the snuggling/cuddling type. More the straight down to 'business' type of gal then a good stolid meal afterwards! Francois Fillon - probably not of the same political 'bent' however Daniel Auteuil would seem to be tailor made for film role if 'FF' becomes one of the saviours of the EU! The difficulty for Fillon in the Presidential election is his (to me) very right wing economic views; will left leaning or socialist individuals stay at home or will they 'hold their noses' and vote for Fillon against Le Pen in the run off. Interesting stuff indeed. Unfortunately I did not have a punt at the 7/2 available when I first got wind of the momentum behind Francois.
