Postecoglou & Lange (& Paratici) Watch

Got one that is far more plausible ...

PL games with saturday 3PM KO.

(Is there a new article in the making ... ?? ) .

 

Here are the PL data sets for the ENIC era managers
(manager / games played / win ratio / GF ratio / GA ratio) :

Antonio Conte 53 0.584906 2 1.11321
Nuno Espírito Santo 10 0.5 0.9 1.6
Tim Sherwood 22 0.590909 1.81818 1.36364
Mauricio Pochettino 202 0.559406 1.84653 1.02475
André Villas-Boas 54 0.537037 1.5 1.24074
Harry Redknapp 144 0.493056 1.58333 0.979167
José Mourinho 58 0.465517 1.67241 1.15517
Martin Jol 114 0.412281 1.48246 1.29825
Glenn Hoddle 89 0.359551 1.30337 1.58427
David Pleat 33 0.363636 1.27273 1.36364
Jacques Santini 11 0.272727 0.545455 0.727273
Juande Ramos 35 0.285714 1.51429 1.42857

 

It's chocolate teapot time.

 

So on Conte (done for discussion but acknowledging
his total number of games is statistically insignificant) ...

His win ratio, and GF ratio is at the top end of Spurs managers.
His GA ratio is closer to the mean than it is to the best.

Given that Conte :

1. allegedly has some great defensive nous

2. has a meh GA ratio

3. has a GA with 2/3 of this season gone
that is only 4 less than the total for last season


is the case made for or against him continuing ??

 

My head is spinning!

 

Executive summary (for Spurs managers in the ENIC era) ...

Conte is doing as well as enyone else did, when it
comes to win ratio and average GF per game
(his teams win as many, score as many per game etc)

But his average GA per game is unremarkable
(hence my previous remarks) .

 

As in confused or as in possessed by an evil spirits

 

Is your mean GA weighted by number of matches? Santini has by far the best number but very few matches so will skew the answer very considerably. Conte's number is much less than the mean GA per match over ENIC's reign but in some ways that isn't surprising because of the big upward trend in performance (probably driven by acquiring better players as finances improved).
Do you have the tools to take the trend out and see who outperformed most then?

 

All the ratios are totals / number of matches.
No weightings have been (or have to be) applied.

I have objectively (as I would do in my day job) analysed
the histograms (ie a multi-dimensional analysis) .

The numbers are in for Conte on GA. My questions remain ...

 

So what're the odds that, now we are pretty much guaranteed to play one game a week, we go on a run of form and qualify for the CL...and people call for Conte to be given an extension because we can hit form in the league as soon as we crash out of everything else?

 

I don't think that's the right treatment. The baseline against which to compare each manager should be the average per game across all managers, not the average of the average of each other manager.

 

The comparison is like for like (in this case, ratio to ratio) .
All schoolboy data analytics

 

I agree with that but you then compared Conte with the mean...and deduced he wasn't significantly different from it on GA. But that mean is heavily affected by Santini and is way below the true mean of all events. If the dataset contained 10 managers with 1 game and no goal conceded, 9 with 100 games and 200 goals conceded and 1 with 200 games and 200 goals conceded then the mean by your method is 0.95 and the last manager is worse than it but is absolutely clearly the best of all of them.

 

It is what it is.

An analysis of 3 measures for all appropriate
managers, even though only 3 of them (of which
Conte is NOT one) have "source data" that
would be deemed statistically significant enough
by professionals to be used in a dara analyrics process.

 

Is that Dara O'Brien singing? Anal Lyrics that must have been deliberate.

 

Ornstein reckons a Poch return is unlikely and would be an uphill battle.

Rahman Osman says Paratici prefers Paulo Fonseca to Poch. I’d highly doubt Fonseca would want our job after the way we mugged him off prior to appointing Nuno. I’d got massively on board with his appointment at the time too. Type of manager that could fit this new progressive coach mould that the likes of Potter, Frank, De Zerbi, Cooper etc are all in.

 

So nothing we didn’t already know then.

 

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He went to the game to get that complete lack of information.