Hi, like most people interested in racing where is the best place to find a winning system and to compare them?? I been working on my own for years, not shared, but struggle to get a real honest comparison as most services only mention what won, no info about strike rate, ROI etc. I watch Hugh Taylor ATR, but unless you have a huge bank would be almost impossible to follow. Thanks
The only winning system I know of is if you've won the lottery and don't give a hoot if you win or lose...!!! Welcome to the madness of trying to make a profit out of a sport that only 5% of punters make money out of...!!!! And that dos not mean me either...
Hi Mark, and welcome to the forum As an old timer, may I say, that from experience, a winning system does not exsist. Or to qualify that slightly, most systems will throw up winners, but to do so consistently enough for you to make it worth your while - no. And people who sell systems, are either deluded, or criminals! That may sound a bit harsh, and probably is, as we had a nice sincere guy on here for years, trying to perfect various systems, but the simple fact is this - if you had a system that threw up a strike rate of 60% without fail, would you sell it? Or just use it to get rich with? Having said all that, the internet is a wonderful place, and I'm sure there are lots of places to find stats - I like the ATR website myself, and although I take little notice of them, they do show strike rates for trainers, jockeys and owners. Otherwise, you could do worse than hang around this forum, and follow the tips from the lads on here! It doesn't involve stats, but it IS a system of sorts! Good luck with your quest, whatever you decide
Hi Mark. Welcome to the forum. This probably isn't what you wanted to hear but there is no such thing as a winning system. It is easy to show winning systems based on past results but there is no guarantee that applying any of those systems will produce winners in future. There are so many factors affecting results and one only needs to look at results to see, for example, how useless the form book can be. A major factor is whether the horse has been prepared to run to its best form, on suitable ground, track and distance. Another factor is whether a horse with (apparently) no chance has been primed for a particular race with the aim of getting its weight as low as possible. This can be achieved in a number of ways (eg running over unsuitable distance, going, track, not being fully fit etc). It is impossible to produce a system that will overcome all these factors which are outside the knowledge of the average punter. My idea of what could be a profitable method is to bet on horses where the odds appear way too generous and then lay them off for a profit whatever happens, or for a free bet. How such horses are to be selected can be either hard work studying a suitable race from all available angles or following a tipster (eg Pricewise) whose tips usually shorten the price. Even so there is plenty of risk and one might want to be selective. I mentioned a "suitable" race. Logic says that if a race has big prize money it is more likely that the horse should be primed for the race. Therefore, in a non handicap, the best horse should win. In a handicap one has to spot the horses that are "well in"; the earlier they are spotted, the more likely a generous price will be available somewhere in which case take the price and lay it off. These suggestions are aimed at a steady profit and will not produce high returns. As they say, the higher the prize, the higher the risk.
Sir Barney Chuckles likes to back horses named after Coronation Street characters Welcome to the forum mate, ditto all of the above
Another possibility is the famous "hedging" bets, particularly with such varying odds available over the internet. If (again) you pick a suitable race where you can narrow the field down to a few horses you can either stake so as to make a small profit whichever one wins (obviously you lose more if none of them win) or you have your main bet on your top fancy and smaller stakes on one or more possibles (savers) to cover your main bet should one of those win. With this option I would ensure enough freedom to allow a portion of your total stake to place on a springer in the market in your "saver" bets (this would only be used if the springer is not one of those already included in the bet). Incidentally, I should add that I haven't got rich by backing horses
wow, thank you all for the advice etc. I am no gambling man myself neither my father. In particular he is interested in patterns and how they occur etc. He kept records of everything he tried, ran and tested. As for myself after a lucky break as property developer in Tangiers had some time off and wanted to look into the various patterns he recorded. Now being no punter myself, not even been to a track etc, no bookies where i live, Spain, we broke down the patterns and organised these into formulas, 9 in total. From this working basically as layers of info, we then looked at how a formula performed, then applied how the same worked in the various race types and then distances and so forth. To give a point on this, if say for example you select a top rated penalty carrier, won its last race before getting hold of by the handicapper, it is the favourite, some would consider this a fairly good bet, but, if you back the same selection when there is another horse who won its last race running, it more than doubles its win rate! A tiny example. If I learnt one thing to share, a 2m chase, dont bother backing the favourite!!! Please let me make the following clear, I am not offering to share, sell or anything else, but, if a system that produced just over 400 selections each year, average strike rate of 55% and a yield an average 330 points a year, for the more experienced, how would you rate this, I have no idea because I would not know where to go looking for tips and there performance??? When we breakdown the 4 years of results we now have, even the volumes are so very close, race type, flat, AW etc, the formulas and their volumes and yield, even the ROI averages the same year on year within a few percentage points. I take on board the initial comments about tips etc, but would love some feedback. We all know when backing, the improbable is always decidedly possible and even the impossable (as any backer should think) is distinctly possible. I am only interested in patterns and relating that back to racing, in the order of how results occur. Thanks for listening
Welcome. No winning system exists, for all we may claim to be able to pick more winners (or losers!) than others, horse racing success relies on a lot of luck! Mine is usually of the 'bad' variety
Indeed, I do. This system has kept me away from the doors of the old poorhouse for years. Dev, Deidre, Leanne and Barlow are just some of the horses who prove this system is Infallible with a capital âIâ. The system, or more accurately approach, used by most of us on the forum is simply to back the runner with the loveliest name. If this one is a filly or mare we then double our stake. Should it be a filly or mare and trained by Mr Henderson the membership, in the main, will triple their wager. Seriously though no system will prove profitable forever. It may well provide the same strike rate percentage wise over the years but the odds of the identified animals will shrink (as more people identify the success of the system, get on and the odds decrease) and consequently the profits will become less and less until ultimately they turn into losses.
Welcome to the forum Mark, I think the measure of the forum you have joined can be taken by the responses to this very article as they demonstrate all that's good about it, genuine responses, informed, sincere and also humorous. I think in response to your question Reebs and Ron have pretty much covered it as any system that can be guaranteed to work must be mathematical and one does not exist, even if it has shown a profit in previously proofed results there is no guarantee that it will tomorrow as there are simply to many variables for maths. Most racing/gambling enthusiasts however are not in it for a mathematical profit anyhow but actually want to pit our judgement against a bookie where by we are happy to reap a reward or pay up with equal good grace and it's this satisfaction that makes us punters. We all have our pointers for finding a winner but we have all been around long enough to know we are unlikely to get too far ahead in the long run, whilst most of us will be guilty of remembering the good days and forgetting the bad too easily when assessing our performance.
If you are really interested in systems the best place to start is to read the articles by Nick Mordin in the weekender or his books (in particular "Winning Without Thinking"). Nick Mordin is a person who seems to divide opinion, especially with the style of his weekenders articles, i personally think he is one of the very few people worth reading on the subject of betting itself (as opposed to horse racing in general). In the book "Winning Without Thinking" he describes a great many successful systems (one is regarding backing very short priced favourites for a place on the tote!) but nearly all of these systems will work for a limited period until the wider betting community catches on. For example, several years ago you could have made money by backing the next three runs of horses which had competed in the cheltenham champion bumper race without winning it. The reason that this system worked was because the relative value of the race was undervalued by the wider betting public. Now however, this is not the case (it is probably overvalued from a betting prespective). Systems must evolve over time to stay ahead of your fellow punters.
Just an example, whilst to some extent blowing my own trumpet (and why not; it's not often I get the opportunity) I did run 3 £10k Betting experiments on here for all to see and they all ended in profit, more than doubling my money on two of them if I recall correctly. However, if I were to run another 3 it's odds on that I would lose most of it. These experiments were, bar the odd 1 or 2 tips from the forum, based on pure form reading on a few selected races. Also there were no obstacles on the track to manoeuvre. I also referred to Timeform (if they opposed my selection I carefully reconsidered before deciding). Having mentioned Timeform, the Timeform Jury is one of the most consistently successful tipping resources. Launched in September 2008 it has secured profits for members in each of the five years since, at an average over £350 per month to £50 stakes. Take off the cost of £99 pm makes it £250pm profit on average. But I believe some months were big losses so one needs deep pockets to cover a run of losing months. Not for me and there is no fun in backing their tips blindly. Most if not all of us on here want to feel we have achieved something when we are rewarded with a winner.
Hi and thank you for all the comments, I had posted a reply but does not show up here, may have done it wrong. I agree with looking at the mathmatical approach, I think past form offers nearly no info as the new race about to be run maybe many factors different from previous runs. For myself I consider 9 formulas, I have a strict rule that each formula is based on a spread of risk or rather putting obstacles in place to justify the risk, this also helps in ruducing as much risk as possible then looking for market support to justify it. I also understand here that you cannot depend on one source of selection so I run 9? Also I am aware that many people may shot the arrow at the tree then paint the target around it, that aint gonna work ever! For me, the question I am really interested in is how do you produce something that works by strict rules and removing all the luck and guess work.
Whenever you involve animals, humans, and gambling --there can never be a system to cover all the imponderables--its part of the fun!
I live by this rule, it sums it up, "The improbable is always decidedly possible and even the impossible (as any backer should think) is distinctly possible" But, a burning question, as being totally new to talking to fellow race-followers, and thank you to all your replies, is, is it possible that anybody come accross a month on month, year on year solid system, with almost mirrored volumes, strike rate, profit etc etc over a decent period? Having a month that makes 50 points followed by one that loses 20 the following month is not good, I am interested in a trading platform as distinct from a gambling one. Is this possible. I watched Hugh Taylor over the last 4 years and his strike rate I think is about 20ish%, that tells me you need a betting bank the size of the national debt, also I notice just about every result he quotes around say 10/1 but the SP result is more 5/1, therefore if you take is year profit I think to the average backer you could write off around 25% of his declared profit as the odds advised are unobtainable. ATR also do state this. So, any system has to be based on the SP, not the probable unobtainable. This is my quest, from not so sunny Spain.
i only study flat racing, can spend 3 hours on an 0-80 5f handicap, can barely spend 3 minutes on a jump handicap jump racing best advice, back good horses at good prices and hope they dont hit anything only other option is to let stick search for potential strokes at plumpton and back them at big odds
If you are looking for a mathematical solution to provide a trading platform, with little or no interest in the horses themselves, I believe you may do better concentrating on the greyhounds where stats can be more informative and probably more reliable. If sticking with horses, on a purely mathematical basis I suggest you have a slick system for betting with bookmakers and the exchange and, when you see a bookmaker out of line and offering better odds than on the exchange, take the price and lay off on the exchange immediately. You don't need to understand form or have any stats; just be patient and be ready to pounce swiftly. Can't lose, theoretically.
