Nathaniel

Nathaniel would be a "good thing" if he lined up for the St. Leger, but although he's still entered for the race he's not in the betting.

Shame Rewilding had to be put down after the King George - would've probably won the race on good or faster going.

 

As soon as I seen Nathaniel romp home in the King Edward I knew he would be far to classy for the Leger. He won yesterday beating last years Arc winner well enough, so he has to go for the Arc. Obviously Pour Moi and Meandre are getting plenty of respect because of there trainers record in the Arc, but I do believe Nathaniel has run to a higher level over 12f that the Andre Fabre horses

 

I completely understand the conclusion that the race was unsatisfactory, because it was. What i cannot understand is people critiscising the performance of Nathaniel, who i thought was a convincing winner, because the circumstances were surely against him as well as the others?

It seems that because he won, they therefore must have suited him to the detriment of the others. I think he is sure to be suited by a stronger pace and think that he is a threat to all in the Arc on his likely preferred ground. I would certainly be in no hurry to suggest that Workforce would definitely reverse the placings. That outcome is not beyond the realms of possibility by any means but neither is the result that the form is confirmed.

 

I am not actually sure people are criticising Nathaniel, i feel everyone acknowledges he won and could do no more. I feel the point most people seem to make is that its not form that is able to be held up with credibility due to quite a few reasons. He may be the superior of Workforce and SNA, he may be a genuine Arc contender, he may be a horse who's name will be remembered in twenty years time as many King George winners are, but that race did not prove any of those things.

If that race was a run of the mill handicap when being discussed for future races everyone would agree with the statement "at this moment i am not sure how much that form is worth" but i feel racing is such a game that when we nail our colours to the mast of a horse and place our money down and get a good return we want to feel yes we got it right, to then have the form questioned so much denies us that feeling a little and so we defend it.

The staement i would agree with is that Nathaniel won the race and could do no more but the form may yet turn out to be valid or completely worthless, but that race did not tell you either way. I feel most who did not back Nathaniel would agree with that staement and only those that did would in the main disagree.

Lets just hope unlike last year which threw up a race with questionable form we get a chance to test it. My view for what its worth is that he is a good horse and will aquit himself well whenever he runs, will he beat workforce again? No. will he win the arc ? No. But thats only a view.

 

Bluesky........But are the people who called the King George wrong blaming the pace of the race, rather than blaming there own judgement? As much as the Nathaniel backers may be blinkered in defending him, the Workforce backers are trying to justify the fact they backed a loser in the KG by blaming the pace.

End of the day the pace wasn't blistering but it wasnt as slow as is being made out, they clocked 2.35(faster times than Shergar and Nijinsky) on soft ground, so id say the finish was far from a sprint, and more like the finish to a 10 or 11 furlong race.

Workforce is just a very average Arc winner, he won a poor Derby, and then got all the luck in running in the Arc, with Bekhabad, *** and Sarafina all recieving interference in the home straight, he was flogged to beat a Japanese horse who couldn't even win his trial race. The Arc was being described as one of the weakest renewals in history even before the race, and I don't see any reason to change that view.

Workforce is a good horse, don't get me wrong you don't win an Arc and Derby if your average but he is no world beater hence why he has lost more G1s than he's won

 

Shergar, I didn't back anything in the race and didn't even suggest a winner, I think I am looking it objectively and I agree completely with Bluesky.

 

I take your point Shergar, but i never backed anything as well which i stated first up in the daily thread. I also agree with you and do not think Workforce an exceptional horse. I think he won a poor Derby and an average Arc, but this must also cause concearn for praising Nathaniel as it can reasonably (not definitivly) be argued Workforce would have beaten Nathaniel had he raced straight as he gave away more than what he lost by perhaps, whilst giving a large weight concession.

I stand by the statement i made previously and i feel if you lined up 10 people who followed racing and had not bet on the race and asked what do you make of that race with regard form reliability? they would agree with that statement.

 

I'd rather take a more middle ground. Going into the race, I didn't think Nathaniel was up to it, but he well and truly proved me wrong. As to whether he could have won had the pace been on from the outset, we'll never know. But that is beside the point. He can only compete against what's thrown up against him. He was just too good. The fact that Workforce badly drifted in the run to the post, attests to the fact that he was flat to the boards and had nothing more to give. ( I thought he'd win.) Even as a Workforce fan, there is no way I could be certain that the outcome would be different with a genuine tempo. On the one hand we have the certainty of Nathaniel's win, against only a possible Workforce turnaround.

So how can we judge how talented the winner is? As far as I'm concerned, we only really have yesterday's race as a true guide to how good he might be. Having only won at G2, this race was a huge step up in class for him. And as far as this race is concerned, the only yardstick we can use to gain info on Nathaniel's abilities, is the Derby and Arc winner. The debate about the class of those two races will probably live long. But a record in a slashing Derby win when coupled to a strong Arc win, says that he's a class animal. If he goes around in the Arc this year, he'll go in as a hot chance. If he's a chance, then Nathaniel is a chance.

 

Personally, I did not back anything but the two horses that wanted a test of stamina did not settle in the early stages because Debussy did not go off in front as they had expected.

Clearly we saw a couple of different races. I do not recall Workforce being “flogged” but I was only standing five yards past the winning line at Longchamp so I had a bad view and did not see the replay on the big screens half a dozen times.

The Japanese runner-up, Nakayama Festa, ran second in the Prix Foy after travelling a few thousand miles from Japan for a preparatory race before running a creditable second in the big event. I was also at Longchamp that day and Duncan won under a front-running ride from William Buick because nobody else wanted to go on so he set a moderate pace and kicked for home early in the straight.

If Andre Fabre runs both Pour Moi and Meandre in the Prix Niel on 11 September, one of them is not going to win but it would be foolish to take Longchamp trials form literally as Sarafina was thrashed by Midday in the Prix Vermeille last season before running a close third in the big race.

KS, please can you point us in the direction of these descriptions as I do not recall any such claims “before the race” – unless of course YOU were making such claims on the old 606 and I just did not read them.

 

I never had a bet but said i thought Workforce would win. What happened to rewilding was of course absolutely dreaduful and made for very unpleasant viewing.

Congratulatiuons to all those who tipped up Nathaniel on here - deserving winner and probably won chiefly becaiuse Buick gave him the most intelligent ride of all the jockeys in the race.

 

the pace was awful - fact.

the class 4 hcap later on took just 1.34 secs longer ,thats 6.75 lengths so shove aiken in the king George and we have a 80 horse come 4th by 6.75l???????

the king george took the same time to get to the 6f point as the hcap, 1m20 secs.

debbusy did then start to do his job from 6f to 3f out ,but still not that great,just 1 second quicker than the hcap by 3f from home. the final time was badly hurt due to the first 6f crawl.

120+ horses really should be around 5 secs faster than 80 rated horses,if this was a even pace race ,then aiken and co are incredibly well handicapped and should be running in 0-100s not 0-80's!

in such circumstances,the horses are now finishing as well as each other.there full of running ,so to make up ground on a horse of similar class is not going to happen.the 3 main horses in the finish have roughly the same top speed and were able to sustain it for 2.5f cause they had so much energy left becuase of going to slow early on.

of the 3 finishers ,nathaneil was in front when the sprint began.he won.workforce was in 2nd.he came 2nd.SNA was in 3rd,he came 3rd.nothing changed which is what happens in a sprint finish.

william buick seemed to kick first,with moore next and JOB last,there were roughly 2l between each horse when the sprint was on and thats how they would of finished if workforce of had kept straighter ,the ground loss btw as only worked out to about 1/4 length in ground loss and also cause he was racing awkward,was not at top speed,so lost roughly 3/4 l overall.

if workforce was in front by 2l 2.5 furlongs from home,he would of won,if SNA was in that position he would of won.

i see topspeed as given nathaneil a rpr of 126 and ts of 103,thats about right from a time perspective as the final time was badly hurt by the first 6f crawl.

now this is not to say nathaneil is lucky winner,but i think a smart winner as he was in the best position and his jockey seemed to be a tad smarter on the day.

the question is can the winner do this of a faster pace?can he sustain his top speed for 2.5f or even more as the arc is 3f from home?we know workforce can.but we dont know if nathaneil can as this didnt tell us

 

I'm confident that Workforce would turn the form around with Nathaniel but there should be nothing taken away from the winner who was still a maiden at the beginning of the year and looks to be a fast improving horse, one certainly for next year.

Anyway my reasoning for the form turn around would be that in my opinion Workforce lost more lengths by hanging than he was beaten by. Also he did give the winner 12lbs and was struck into on the bend, so people proclaiming Nathaniel to be a brilliant winner should be taking into consideration that the second hung badly, conceded 12lbs and was struck into on the bend. I also dont see how people can still slag off Workforce, dual group 1 winner, second in a king george and second in the eclipse against a so called beast of a horse despite having to make his own running and the race being two furlongs shorter that his optimum distance.

Anyway what are the conditions for the Arc, how much will weight will Nathaniel receive, is it 4lbs? I dont see how he will finish in front of workforce in the race, it wont happen.

 

Hardy, the French use metric weights (roughly converted), a three-year-old colt will carry 56kg (8st 11lb), an older colt or horse will carry 59.5kg (9st 4lb), a three-year-old filly will carry 54.5kg (8st 7lb) and an older filly or mare will carry 58kg (9st 2lb).

That boils down to weight-for-age being 3.5kg in October, which is nearly 8lb, so I guess Workforce would be around 4lb better off with Nathaniel.

 

I think that the main point to be understood is that to question the merit of the form is not a putting down of Nathaniel, which as many have said he could do no more, it's simply saying the form cannot be taken at face value for too many reasons.

I wonder if the race was run again in a months time on the same ground but with 10 runners ensuring a better pace but with the main players being the 3 that filled the places on saturday, what would the bookies price it up at? personally i am 7-4 workforce, 9-4 Nathaniel and 5-1 SNA.

 

Fascinating to see JG talking about the Champion Stakes as a possible. Fascinating.

 

Hardy....They get an 8 pound allowance in the Arc, and when you consider that Nathaniel only made his debut less than 12 months ago, and Saturday was only his 6th race, then it's quite likely he will improve atleast 4 pounds to maintain his 2 1/2 lengths superiority over Workforce in the Arc, if anything the gap will only get bigger, afterall 3yos have a poor record in the KG, were as they have a fantastic record in the Arc.

Workforce is unlikely to find any more improvement as a 4yo, and is more than likely at his peak, so I realy don't see how you can be confident of a reversal of form, il happily have a 50/50 bet with anyone that Nathaniel confirms form with Workforce in the Arc

 

i wont post on here again if Nathaniel finishes in front of workforce in the arc, barring accidents of course.

 

Agree with this. My feeling was that people were saying Workforce didn't run to form because of this, this and this. SNA didn't run to form because of this, this and this. The performance of Nathaniel seemed to be lost in the excuses for the others, which, in my opinion, are applicable to Nathaniel too, despite him winning the race.

However, it must be concluded that the race was unsatisfactory and that the form is questionable. I do think that Nathaniel will be a major player in the top races, including the Arc, and next season. To my mind, with Workforce and Rewilding having top form over 10f and Nathaniel being talked off as a Leger horse he would be most inconvenienced by the steady pace and sprint finish.

I think it is important to give the winner the credit he deserves, but to remember that the form is uncertain.

 

Weight for age in the Arc De Triomphe has shown historically to be correct.
It's only in the last 20 years that three year olds have dominated- before that it was pretty 'even-steven.'
I think you'll find that the reason for this superiority is that the English and French Derby winners have rarely contested the Arc as four year olds-since 1990. They've been packed off to stud.
Apart from High Chaparral (against Dalakhani) I don't think any English/French Derby winner has contested as a four year old in the last 10 years. I may have missed one, but Workforce is bucking the trend, if he makes it to Longchamp.