Nass' Handicap thread

Hello all,

I do like looking at a race in depth and I thought I should have my own thread to do so. The principle idea of mine is that you target a race that has few that can improve and then work out who is going to be benefiting from the style of the race, the way I do this is to look at open age handicaps with as few unexposed types as possible and then work out how the race is likely to be run and to which horse will it most benefit

Todays race in focus is the 2.40 at York

Pace angles - Global, Brockfield, One Scoop Or Two, Count Bertoni, Mountrath

To me in a 18 runner handicap its a surprise to see only five pace angles in the race, with only one or two who really like to go hard from the front. This means we are probably going to get an even run race and that should set the race up for the horse who is best handicapped and will enjoy the ground.

Ground - Good to Firm - Good in places

Violent Velocity is a prolific winner on this sort of ground (6 wins) and is a distance winner, he is only 1lb higher than his best winning mark (has 7lb claimer on to reduce weight) and therefore must have claims. The worry is that he may be better over seven furlongs (only won once over this trip) and this extended mile may stretch his stamina. He probably was flattered by his win on his penultimate start as they went too fast in front and he picked up the pieces.

Mountain Cat has no trip concerns being a good winner over this trip and has won on good-firm ground, however the worry with this one is that for me its an AW horse who struggles on turf.

Gala Casino Star has the perfect profile for this race, he is a course and distance winner who stays this trip very well. He is still 10lbs under his highest winning mark and today he has the cheekpieces removed (wore last time and hated from my understanding) after his poor show on softer than ideal ground last time. Paul Hanagan now takes over and the horse is back to its ideal conditions and at 15/2 looks a very fair bet.

Moheebb is the well handicapped horse in the race, he is 3lbs lower than he will be in the future. The Carr yard are in good form and this horse would have good chances if the ground turned to soft, however I think this ground is against him and I won't back him on the back of unlucky defeats (on a long losing run)



Therefore the bet is Gala Casino Star

 

Geez Nass, what a race. The winner could come from anywhere. I don't think that too many of these are going to go too much further. This could be the top of the tree. The more I looked at the race, the more I came back to a good yard and a jockey, for one selection, and consistency for the second animal. So I couldn't split Gala Casino Star who goes well here, and the old boy Ours who has been placed every second start in his 76 run career.

Gala Casino Star EW. 7-1.

Ours. EW. 25-1.

 

Gala Casino Star never got into it, but another punt landed by the superb Mick Easterby yard. They do like winners at York.