I just thought I would start a thread based around horses that I feel have had significant support earlier in the day. I feel watching money is one of the more stable ways of showing a profit but does take some time to begin to pay off as its not possible to just back those that have contracted in price as some money is worth following and some less so. This is purely a subjective process in deciding which is the money to follow. Factors can be the stable alone that make it worth following, the type of race, the opposition etc etc. Today's selections Ready Token 1.30 Market Rasen Fell 5-2 Joanne One 2.30 Market Rasen 2nd 7-4 Ultimateum duroy 3.30 Market Rasen Winner 11-10 Nodebateaboutit 2.20 Wincanton Unplaced 9-2 Crisis Averted 4.30 Wolverhampton won evns Lets see what happens.
Quite possibly Ron, I think I will run it for a few days as a test really. I agree I could put a little info as to why I have chosen that particular supported horse but I purposely did not want to assess its chance with regard form. The criteria are purely Stable, type of race, Opposition, and by this I mean if there are four supported in the same race that's got to be a negative but if the two fancied horses in opposition are on the slide that would be a positive. I think the Wincanton selection today falls into that one. Just watched the first selection going well when in front when falling two out, jumps for you.
I was thinking maybe certain combinations are more indicative than others and it would be interesting to know which combinations have a high strike rate when the money is down. And maybe, if it fails, whether a recovery mission follows (same or different horse).
The way I do it is to look at the overnight markets as these can be an indication of where money is going for horses, however, I suspect the ability to get significant sums of money on early prices may be limited. If the price holds throughout the day, right up to the off then I find it's safe to assume that the early money was genuine. Take Stick's tip from yesterday, it held it's price all day long, in the end going off at 3/1 from 16s overnight, not drifting once, where as todays tip Grams and Ounces 28s into about 12s in places but opened on course at 20s and was weak on Betfair. All told, it didn't appear as if the money was down on that one and the result reflected that. I certainly find that it is a very informative way of finding winners (not necessarily value) throughout the day and if you can find enough, you can still return a good profit. After all a 2/1 winner is better than a 10/1 loser.
I agree OTB as it can be a little deceptive to take only the first markets. Bet365 are usually first up and so the earlier calls get recorded with them and I know in the past Stick has mentioned watching their markets for early indicators. There are some however as you mention that turn out to be small stakes causing a fear from the layer but the weight of money does not continue and so it slips out again. As you mentioned with Sticks yesterday however once you see the price hold up throughout the day it can be relied upon as an indicator. There are things to watch for however as many yards have private relationships with bookmakers however and so the bets are taken as a form of information for the bookie and before the market is formed. This is less prevalent in my opinion since Betfair however, this is most visible when you notice a horse open up a price of 5-2 when in the papers and with regard form it should be 12-1. If you know how to spot these they can be taken as money horses.
Todays experiment went pretty ok without showing a profit. By this I mean it showed how the indicators can produce winners that the form book may not necessarily point out. Ready Token - Faller Unraced but came in for market support and held price to the off going off at 5-2 which was the same as when advised. Ran very well and was at the front when came down two out. My view is it would have likely been second but would have been interesting to see if he would have found enough. Nodebateaboutit - Unplaced Good money through the morning and the main mover in the race. By Post time however the indicator was not so strong and had drifted to 5-1. Didn't take initially to the fences but stuck to the task and ran into 4th without troubling the main contenders. Joanne One - Began favourite but was well supported, price held up going off 7-4. Ran well and had every chance to the last just being run out of it Ultimatum duroy - Very strong support throughout the morning when advised at 7-4 continued all the way into post time and horse won easily at 11-10 Crisis Averted - chosen as was easily readable with regard market. Opened 9-4 as you would expect an unraced from decently stocked stable, the support that took it into advised 13-8 told you it was fancied. The support intensified going to post and the horse won well at 11-10. I will post again tomorrow.
So the last 2 were shorter at the off than any other time. Question is, at what stage do you back them as, if they drift back out, they should be left alone (maybe).
If you sit around monitoring the situations till off time you have missed the price as a rule. I am trying to spot horses before the gamble gathers steam. Sometimes I get it right and sometimes spectacularly wrong. I usually know by off time if the horse is going to oblige. I would love to have the time to make a full study as to which trainers land their punts and which fail, now that would be informative. One of the tricky things these days is knowing where the punt originated from. There are so many twitter and facebook tipsters these days plus the tipping line, Timeform Jury, Hugh Taylor and Pricewise. if the gambles originated there it is chance not information that is the basis! I am not naïve enough to think that these gambles propagate from my say so although I do think bookies are wary of tips coming from forums. They must browse surely!
Well there was certainly a 'Money Horse' Medecis Mountain 50/1 into 7/1 throughout the day and hoses up in da 7.30!!
Ron' I think most punters use best odds guaranteed so any drift will be covered anyway. The only time I would not use best odds was if someone else appeared overly generous and I could not possibly see a drift coming from their price. Stick' I agree totally that the key is working out the origin of the money as there are many reasons a horse can shorten, Pricewise being the most obvious and so that money is ignored. I also agree that the key is getting in as soon as you can and it does lead to a misjudgement at times for as you say you know by post time if you got it right or not and money cannot ever be followed blindly so the skill is working out the right money to follow. I recall someone asking you a week or so ago what you look for in a punt and was in agreement with what you mentioned. I feel to have any chance of success you cannot rely on one method of selection and what is needed is a good ability to read form, an ability to follow the right money and an understanding of jockey bookings and trainer habits. I feel when you have these things you have a chance of taking a view on a race. Still bloody hard though to turn a profit. Save the Humans' What a lovely touch that was for someone. I tend be more wary of the higher priced horses as it takes far less to cause them to shorten. I would not ignore altogether however if from the right stable.
Stick, whilst generally I agree you will have missed the price waiting around until the off, it can be a very good indicator of connections intentions with the horse. Comes back to adage of a shorter priced winner vs a longer priced loser. We're not always going to get it right, so you have to weigh up the situation and try and identify other discriminating factors as to the horses’ chance. Things like a new yard, gelding operation, 2nd run after a break, headgear etc etc can also be used to indicate whether the money for a horse is genuine so to speak. Stick, as an owner, maybe you can offer a bit more insight into what goes on within the yard when they have one ready to win. I should imagine that an online bookie will only take so much of a battering from those that really are in the know? e.g. Bet365 surely won't continually take bets from people within the yard so it must mean that they need to look for other outlets, such as on course book makers, exchanges etc? It seems to me that money coming for a horse 'on course' can be even more informative than early money for exactly that reason. There are certainly horses that win without anyone having a penny on, and you can understand why in some cases. My other question really is that, for a given horse within a yard, let’s use yours as an example, is it the owners that decide when the day is that the horse will be winning? Does the yard indicate that the horse is ready to win and give the owners the nod to get on, before the yard pile in? How does a gamble come about and whose money is it that we generally see in the markets at different times?
Todays Selections Lingfield 2.30 Tee it up Tommo 5-4 won 4-6 4.00 Shardapour 5-1 2nd 7-1 Wolverhampton 4.30 Cheyenne Red 5-1 Unplaced 8-1 6.30 Two in the pink 7-2 2nd 7-2 Mussleburgh 2.45 Discovery Bay 2-1 unplaced 2-1
I agree that prices can "appear" better value HOWEVER as these are animals and as ALL trainers will know what their horse is theoretically capable of its still a gamble. From a different sport Man City at Blackburn 1-1 Man City at home to Blackburn 5-0 The apparent value maybe in backing these horses ie Sticks 28/1 from yesterday then lay it off at better than the lowest 9-1 I think and you are in profit. Also Trainer A may be a talking trainer/ gambling stable and Trainer B might be confident but "honest" and keeps his mouth shut and lets the horse get on with it. So as a summary its just more factors to consider when you already have a considerable number at present.
intersting thread, but the bottom line--is being able to sort the wheat from the chaff--no short cuts on that one--a wealth of knowledge built from many years of hard knocks --knowing how stables operate, who they use, etc--there are also ruses used--when i met sean harley by pure chance , he was taking a horse to kempton from donegal, saw him in a north wales village letting the horse have a break--he was running it two nights later in a low grade h/cap--but he stressed his friendship with barney curly --who also had a horse in the same race--back mine e/w he said --curly has the best horse. Come race day--Curly horse was backed from 10/1 into fav--his horse drifts out to 14/1 -comes into 9/1 just before the off--The race is there for all to see--Curly horse goes off like a scalded cat--a 5f sprinter--pace to the race-is burnt out after a mile and tails off-meanwhile j fahy keeps harleys horse switched off at the back-makes his move at the false rail and te race is put to bed in a few strides--Gamble Landed --curly sent his horse out a few weeks later --it too hosed up !
Just one possibly worth noting also is Crowdmania 5:30 in Wolves for M.Johnston, was backed from 6/1 into 6/4 or that during the week only to hit the front and look all over the winner and Fanning gave him an easy time to come home in front only to be collared by a fast finisher on the outside, he's 11/10 today, I haven't checked if he is being backed again but I imagine they will be looking for compo from him today. Ok, decided to not be lazy and look and he has gone from 11/4 into 11/10 again for today. (2 n/r so that explains today's 'move') still interested to see it from last day.
OTB, I am not sure what angle that question is coming from but a couple of things that have really interested me in recent weeks. Firstly, communication between trainers is rife. You pretty much know well before the off what result is expected. At Warwick recently a trainer had been very vocal before the off about his horses chances. Some like to tell and others play their cards close to their chest. The owners and trainers bar is very interesting from a neutral viewpoint I can tell you. The other fact is about bookies knowing who is in the know. It is very difficult/nigh on impossible to take a bookie to the cleaners. If they think you are in the know they will very soon start limiting your bets. It has happened to two contacts of mine in recent weeks when we were smashing it up. The interesting thing though is they didn't refuse bets or close accounts, they simply limit your stake and their losses. I think the reason for this is that they actually want to know what horses to be wary of!
