Monday September 19 Daily Thread

A hangover never felt as good as it did today!

3.50 Leicester

La Fortunata 12/1 NAP

Quite like the look of Mike Murphy’s 4 year old in the shape of La Fortunata tomorrow. This filly has been a great servant to both her trainers, registering 2 wins and 12 places from a total of 23 starts and probably still isn’t entirely exposed either. Although she disappointed 2 starts ago off this mark of 83 at Sandown when sent off joint favourite, the ground was probably too soft for her that day and I am willing to overlook that effort. If we go back 2 starts, La Fortunata ran an excellent 1L 2nd behind Secret Asset at Goodwood at the end of July off a 2lb lower mark. That day, La Fortunata was drawn very wide in stall 1 and elected to race alone for the vast majority of the race and it was an excellent effort. It may very well have been a case that La Fortunanta was running on worse ground than the rest and her effort was even better than the bare result. Even still, the form of that race is working out very nicely.

The winner has subsequently finished 4.5L behind Hoof it and won off a 6lb higher mark in a Class 2 so La Fortunata was clearly beaten by a well handicapped horse. Further to this, a few of the other horses in behind have won off similar marks so the form looks rock solid. LTO La Fortunata put in an excellent effort on ground that was definitely softer than ideal for her as she finished 1.12L back in 4th behind Your Gifted, with Sohraab who opposes tomorrow 0.5L in front in 3rd. She had a poor draw which was a big negative for this horse who likes to front run and she was squeezed out in the final furlong and it was really a fine performance. Her trainer Mike Murphy said that they will be looking for some better ground and they seem to have got it here with the current going Good, Good to Firm in places. She should definitely improve a lot with the better ground and off the same mark I think she has a fantastic chance and should reverse the placings with Sohraab. Tony Culhane takes the ride tomorrow and although she doesn’t have the best draw in stall 13 I hope it is not too much of an inconvenience and I fancy her quite a bit to register another win to her name.


4.50 Leicester

Rock Anthem FC 16/1

I quite like the look of Mike Murphy’s 7 year gelding in what looks a very open contest tomorrow. Although he doesn’t win much, Rock Anthem last 2 wins came in the same race at Sandown in the same handicap a year apart in 2010 and 2009. Last year he was given a fantastic ride by Russ Kennemore off a mark of 72. He was waited with for a long time at the back of the field and Kennemore pushed the button inside 2 furlongs to go and Rock Anthem proceeded to blast through the field to get up in the last 100 yards to win by 0.75L to Beaumont’s Party. The effort was visually very impressive as he met a couple of momentum sapping spots on his way to victory. I believe there was still a lot of horse left under Kennemore at the end of the race. The 2nd in that race has subsequently come out and won twice off a mark of 75 (was 74 that day) and has finished a very respectable 4th off 83 LTO. A couple of others that day who were behind have come out to win off similar marks.

Rock Anthem has 6 wins to date and his victory in 2009 came as a 5 year old when he was actually a 1L 2nd behind Desert Kiss. Rock Anthem was flying home that day but just couldn’t get to the front, again off 72. Desert Kiss was rated 80 that day so considering he weighed in light its fair to say he was a couple of lbs lighter than that. Desert Kiss was a 4 year old at the time and he has subsequently gone on to win off marks of 85 and 89. The declared 2nd that day Poyle Meg, who raced off 77 that day and finished 1.75L behind Rock Anthem, has subsequently won off a mark of 80 on the AW. The 3rd has come out and won off a 1lb lower mark.

Rock Anthem started the season disappointingly and came out and produced a rather disappointing run at Sandown where he was 2-2 over the C+D. However, he blew the start completely that day and I think he was probably saved for another day. Furthermore, the ground had probably gone against him with all his wins coming on ground that is good or better. Tomorrows ground is forecast to be Good so if we don’t get any rain then I think the ground should be ideal. Rock Anthem continued the disappointing trend of poor performances when finishing a distant 9th at Brighton off a mark of 75. Martin Dwyer was booked that day and it was a bad run with no excuses. If that was his last run I would be very hesitant to back him but he definitely showed that he was returning to some sort of form LTO at Kempton on August 15th.

Racing off a lower AW mark, Rock Anthem was dropped out the back by tomorrows jockey Tony Culhane and he travelled very well throughout the race. Culhane brought Rock Anthem down the outside and he came with a very promising run and looked to have a serious chance 1f out. However, it became apparent that Rock Anthem was not going to win and he was eased in the final furlong eventually finishing 4L behind the winner Catchanova. The form of the race looks fine with Catchanova winning again off a 6lb higher mark and the 2nd Ferruccio coming 2nd off a 3lb higher mark. It definitely was evident that Rock Anthem was nearing his best form and looks sure to come on from that run.

Rock Anthem races off a mark of 71, which is 1lb lower than his two victories in the two Sandown contests. Rock Anthem’s rating peaked at 77 this year and I think perhaps the 2011 running of the race was the target all along and his poor performances have allowed his mark to drop below his last winning mark (effectively 2lbs higher as two 3lb claimers were on for the victories). However, he was withdrawn that day due to the ground being too soft which I think indicates that Murphy believes he is in great form and he was saving him for a day he could compete. He should hopefully get the better ground he is after tomorrow and if in top form he should definitely be able to play a hand in the finish of this Class 5 event. Tony Culhane takes the ride tomorrow and although he isn’t ideally drawn in stall 12, hopefully Rock Anthem can make it 3 consecutive Septembers where he has registered a win.

Also like the look of 5.00 Kempton Red Somerset 14/1

 

2.30 Kempton: Malakat Jamal 12/1-No doubt the Godolphin horse will be a warm order as favourite with Frankie booked, but it hasn't set the world alight as of yet and I thought David Simcocks Malakat Jamal looked to be one showing gradual improvement, staying on eyecatchingly last time out, without threatening the winner. The worry is he seems to dwell at the start, which can be costly. But Kempton is a deceptively long home straight and you see a lot of hold up horses come with late charges on the outside. Looks a good e/w prospect.

3.00 Kempton: ROYALE RANSOME 16/1- It's a really nice Kempton maiden and one that is very hard to read. BERWIN is expected to be favourite having shaped really well behind a full sister to Rio De La Plata on debut, and Sylvester Kirk did say on Attheraces Get On he liked him, though said he might be one for further down the line. Sir Michael Stoute has a half sister to Group One winner Virtual in the shape of HONOUR, but the lack of entries makes you wonder. I really like the beautiful pedigree of Royale Ransome however, and Clive Cox can definitely ready a newcomer. Out of a dam called PRAYER, this is a half-sister to WITHOUT A PRAYER, who was a very smart horse, winning an All Weather listed contest at Kempton and placed in a Group 3 at Epsom on Derby weekend. Intereestingly, the AW record for Without a Prayer reads 21151 (ignoring Meydan). Red Ransom produces some beautiful looking horses and I suspect this could be an above average filly- whether that means it will be good enough against some other promising types here is the question. Definitely has the precocity in pedigree to be a very useful juvenile, and the half-sister was an unlucky second on debut and a wide margin winner on second start. Interesting.

 

Some excellent cases put forward again guys. I've got a notion that Kevin Ryans Waking Warrior 3.50 will pull of a decent race soon. He's been held up in rear most races and travelled well having never been given a chance to get involved. Lto he was passing horses for fun last furlong again. Hes slipped in the weights accordingly and I can't believe this 3yo has regressed. It's a funny old game they are playing with him I suspect today may be interesting. I may dabble. Any opinions welcome.

 

Ardent: They like the horse very much, i know one of the syndicate owners, ive text him asking what they think about todays race mate

 

morning all
oddy watch out for Ten Fires !!

 

TOPCLASS: Nice shout on Albert Bridge Friday mate, horse was totally different at the start, obviously still missing his mummy LTO

Great ride and won easily in the end. Hope you had a tickle on Our Jonathon mate

 

Morning chaps, hope we are all well... Cant find much of interest for todays racing, so looks like a no bet day today...

Good luck to anyone playing the cards today...

 

Thanks GDC interesting to find out what they think..cheers

 

Morning all. Been looking through the Hannon two year olds going around today. The 14:30 at Kempton has the trainer starting two runners, Fisher and Phillipstown. Hughes goes onto the latter which is about 8-1. It's form isn't all that flash, having only one placing from three starts. First time up, as much as 20-1 was secured about it before it tumbled into 17-2. It went like a busted bum. again they got 20-1 in his second start before it started at 8-1. It finished third. Last time 12-10. Again went poorly. So why all the money if it can't run? Smoke and fire, and all that.

One I liked the look of though was Appeal in the 15:40 at Hamilton. It stood in the stalls at it's only race, conceding 4L before running on at the finish. Was backed from 16-1 into 12-1. At 4-1, it has a solid each way chance.

14:30 Phillipstown. EW.

15:40 Appeal. EW.

 

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

What a cracker of a weekend England and Ireland played very well and are looking good for a semi final meeting.

Man United looked awesome at times but a great match to watch anyway and then of course there was OUR JONATHON of a ride from Franny and the result never looked in doubt from fully 2 furlongs out!! TRENDS TRENDS TRENDS how i love them

 

ChiefMech: You may be a big galoot BUT many thanks for your kind words about the lad, sadly you are right and he has already slipped into depression, new it was coming but didn't expect it this early on! The lads are rallying round though and hopefully we will help him snap out of it.

Thanks again

 

Very sad to hear that Ginger McCain has passed away

 

Oddy, it wasn't me

No I don't get to see any jumps over here. I'm a bit of a wimp when it comes to winter racing. Went to Cheltenham once and froze - might have helped if Pendil hadn't got caught by The Dickler I suppose.

 

I must say there are some really great people on this forum.

Lindentree has just sent me a load of signed pics from his playing days for the lad that broke his leg! Awesome mate and many thanks, for those that asked, Newcastle Utd sented a standard e mail back saying they give to charities and not even a mention of how the lad is or wishing him well

Linden: You are a star and looking forward to meeting you at Sandown mate and hearing all about the 'proper' football players from your era! Loved your comment with the George Best picture

 

Ardent: They have been told to go small EW but there will be some money for him as they know he has a win in him this season!!

I've taken the 25s EW and also like Alices Dancer at 28s EW 250 Leic