12.30 Kempton Ski Sunday 10/1 Formerly a very talented hurdler, I think Tim Vaughan's 7 year old is now on a handicap mark he can most definitely exploit on what is his easiest task for a long, long time. At his peak, Ski Sunday finished 2nd in the Fred Winter for Vaughan off a mark of 136 back in 2009 and probably bettered that effort only getting beaten 5L in the Vincent O'Brien Handicap Hurdle off a mark of 143 at the Cheltenham Festival in 2011 but he hasn't really gone with much verve since rejoining Tim Vaughan at the end of last year. After an unsuccessful chasing career, Ski Sunday started back hurdling off a mark of 138 back in February of this year and competing in very competitive races in his 4 hurdling starts to May and he subsequently fell to a mark of 125. He made his reappearance earlier this month at Chepstow on the back of a 6 month break and I think he shaped a lot better than his 17L defeat suggested over the 3m trip. I think the handicapper has been very kind to him to drop him 5lb to a mark of 120 and this allows him to get into a Class 4 handicap which I think will prove crucial. I think its very interesting that Tim Vaughan sends him to Kempton (only course runner) as he won on his sole start here for Lawney Hill in January 2011 so its clear he goes well here and the drop back to 2m5f should suit. With Dougie Costello booked and Tim Vaughan in good form, I think Ski Sunday looks primed for a big run and hopefully he can find the winning thread again and land this contest. 2.50 Ludlow Derwen Pryde 10/1 I really wish this had 8 runners as I think Derwen Pryde would represent a great e/w bet but Peter Bowen's mare certainly looks a very interesting proposition to me and I am fairly certain that she has been aimed to score on her handicap debut over fences. Relatively unexposed for an 8 year old with only 12 starts under rules, Derwen Pryde twice won over hurdles and reached a peak rating of 95 in that sphere. However, I think she is most definitely going to make up into a better chaser and I think she has a good bit of wiggle room off her opening handicap mark of 92. Derwen Pryde made her chasing debut over an extended 2m3f at Ffos Las earlier this month on what was her first start for 202 days. Over a trip definitely on the sharp side and pretty much out of her depth against horses who were rated much higher than her over hurdles, I thought she showed a good attitude and jumped nicely for the most part on what clearly looked a spin and I think she'll strip a lot fitter for the run and will certainly improve for the experience. Its hardly surprising that Peter Bowen has pitched her into handicap company over the larger obstacles and she should find this much, much easier. Today she has a tongue tie and cheekpieces reapplied which screams to me that she certainly will be trying and she should certainly enjoy the step back up to 3m. I also think its very interesting that she returns to Ludlow (a course where she has never been beaten further than 3.25L in 3 starts) and her course experience is a big positive in my eyes for what is the trainers only runner of the day. Current favourite Inamalabalusaloon certainly will be a tough nut to crack as the Irish raider has won her last two (one in a Point to Point) with his latest win coming on his chasing handicap debut at Cartmel back in July and the excellent Derek O'Connor is coming over to ride a horse that doesn't have a great chance. However, given that Ludlow is a track that he may not act on I certainly think he is worth taking on and I would definitely advise a saver bet W/O as he could easily prove a very well handicapped horse. Jamie Moore takes the ride and if building upon her initial experience on what looks a very manageable mark to go chasing with I think Derwen Pryde will run a big race and hopefully she'll land this contest.
Good morning to all fellow forumites. Interesting that Barry Geraghty goes to Kempton today for 3 rides for Mr Henderson and yet only Kells Belle in the mares hurdle is currently favourite (just in front of Knockfierna). That heat looks the pick of the card with some real strength in depth and all 8 runners appear to be in with some sort of chance. Baby Shine ran a cracker on her seasonal reappearance, finishing 9 lengths 4th to Une Artiste over an inadequate trip and the step up to 3 miles today can bring out the best in Lucy Wadham's mare. I've also had a little e/w saver on Alpine Breeze who is already a winner over 3 miles and 20/1 is way too big a price for her. Over at Ludlow Evan Williams, who is going really well at the moment, can carry on the good work with a double courtesy of Zarzal (12.40) and Definite Dream (1.45). Best of luck to everyone
Now this is what I'm talking about Oddy... on a bleak November day in Edinburgh...gives one a warm glow!!
Happy Birthday Ron. 1 for me today 12.30 kempton Umberto d'olivate, small e/w stakes for me as usual. Good luck to anyone taking their chances today.
Happy birthday Ron, did you get your mail from the Queen? One for me today, perhaps. Just waiting to see how the market forms for the listed mares race, does anyone have the latest going report and more importantly, does anyone have any views on the race in general?
Miss Milbourne is a bet in the mares race, she will love this extended trip and she will like the ground. Done her EW as I fear the irish raider if she is on song. I have also backed Spirit River, on the basis that he was so bad last season that they must have him ready for this on seasonal reappearance. 9/4 is too big for SR
Well lets see if we can get the day off to a good one in Ski Sunday... Good luck ROTO... As for the rest of the card... 1.00 - Minellas Definitely, 25/1 e/w 1.30 - Barlow, 7/2 2.05 - Knockfierna, 11/4... bet 2.35 - Current Event, 4/1... bet 3.10 - Iron Chancellor, 4/1... bet 3.40 - Benny The Swinger, 8/11 Singles n Doubles... Gonna look at the Ludlow card after this 1st race...
