Southwell over jumps isn't quite Southwell on the sand, but lets have a go!
I find that you see lots of mistakes and horses not getting into a rhythm over the fences, and I think we will see similar today, where form might not stand up and the horses who manage the fences best will be at a massive advantage.
13:15 - Coole Lion in the first has the form in the book, but he did jump right when winning here last time and at evens he is far too short. The issue with this race is the poor quality of opposition, with only Istimraar having decent recent runs and being in the handicap itself! At 3/1 I would rather be with that horse than the favourite.
Istimraar @ 3/1
13:45 - Giga White's form with Cheltenam De Vaige has been franked, but this 4 year old gelding has looked very soft in a finish. He jumped well that day and it could be that he wins this on the bridle, but for me this race is a tricky heat whereby doubts are cast over the entire field. Lake Baikal jumped poorly on his only chase run, he finished last season in good form, but to take this on return over fences would be another improvement in his form. This could happen, but at 7/4 I wouldn't be betting on it.
Court Jurado looked to have his race in the keeping at this course two runs ago. He jumped to the front three out, and then fluffed two out and stuttered into the last, but that wasn't tiredness it was novice mistakes. He then went to Stratford and got done for toe by a quicker one.
Kiruna Peak has been disappointing and whilst she has the form in the book from hurdles, she seems hard to support today.
Court Jurado @ 11/4
14:20 Lough Har form from his narrow defeat last time looks a cut above this field, Arthurs Sixpence hacked up off 4lbs higher next time. Lough Har now gets the headgear and whilst there is a worry that he doesn't want to win, I think he is too well handicapped to be against. Unfortunately the price has gone since I took some yesterday afternoon.
Lough Har @ evens
15:50 Race of the day for me, we get to see Ultimate Getaway take on hurdles and he takes on three horses who ran to a very decent level on the flat. I think the key to this race is that they are running over the minimum trip, and whilst I am expecting them to push the pace with Ultimate Getaway, I think he will find a couple of these faster on the flat than those he has been beating in bumpers. He is a staying chaser in the making, so this should prove pretty sharp for him. He can win, but at the prices and with the trip worries I have looked elsewhere.
El Borracho has won a hurdle so has to carry a penalty, which makes it look difficult for this mid 70s horse from the flat. The handicapper has given it a mark of 118 which would suggest that to beat him today you need to be running to 115 or so. I think Ultimate Getaway and a couple of the others will be able to do that at some point in the future.
Will it be today? Well I think Leroy Leroy is primed to run a best race today, having finished a good second on hurdles debut when making Captain Tom Cat pull out all the stops. That horse had previously beat El Borracho by 7 lengths off levels, so on that collateral formline I have El Borracho at less than a length better off levels. Today Leroy Leroy gets 8 lbs!
I also like Divine Gift who is another decent flat horse who stays pretty well. He was disappointing on hurdles debut last season but has run fairly well on the flat this year before this switch back to hurdles. He may need a little further in time but at 10/1 could easily run into a place
16:25 best handicap on the card and Poetic Rhythm is the best horse in the race. He won a Challow Hurdle!! That race however has a record of bottoming horses and that certainly happened to this horse. He had a short season last year and he was disappointing. However I saw him on the gallops the other day and he was doing a good bit of work, showing some sparkle and willingness. Today I think is the day to catch him and again the market has spoken.
I've had bets on - (plus those mentioned above as bets)
Lough Har/Poetic Rhythm - Double
Lough Har/Leroy Leroy - Double
Lough Har/Divine Gift - Double
Divine Gift/Poetic Rhythm - EW Double
Poetic Rhythm/Leroy Leroy - EW Double
