Daily Racing Thread Monday 22nd. July 2019

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Morning

6.25 Beverley-Seize The Time @ 11-4 [William Hill]

Trainer very good with first time expensive 2 year olds
 
VALLEY OF FIRE 4/1 (11/2 last night) Ayr 3:35
Would have gone very close to winning a competitive little class five had he got a clear run last time. Dropped into a class six today and given two pounds of relief from the handicapper for good measure.

THIS HORSE IS A “MUST BET” TODAY
 
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The 5:00 race @ Cartmel interests me on a few fronts, despite there being only 4 runners... First thing that caught my eye is that Bryony Frost goes way up to Cartmel for just the one ride, Winter Lion for John O'Shea, which is a fair trek for just the one ride. John O'Shea isn't exactly a local yokel either coupled with the fact it's only the 2nd time he's sent anything there in 12 months...!! Then we have the Peter Bowen runner, Dr Robin, who is going for a 3 timer, has a strike rate of 17% at the course, sends 4 runners to the course and yet again has made it a fare journey to get to the course... Donald McCain has a Cartmel strike rate of 23% sends William of Orange with the ever dependable Brian Hughes on top who has a personal strike rate of 35% at the course, the last one he has out of 5 at the course today... And finally John Candish sends two up to Cartmel today, Red Giant takes his place in this one with young Sam Twister up top, 1 of his 4 rides there...

I was going to have a bit of the Bryony runner but after looking in to the race found that I fancied three of the four, not so keen on Red Giant's chances... Not having a bet now, but will be tuning in to see who takes the money home with em… If I had to have a bet, gun to my head and all that, id go with William of Orange @ 9/2...
 
John Oshea don't waste diesel, mccain has two other runners ; same as bowen ,every horse will make their diesel money and jockey fee , regardless where they finish, I'd side with frost and oshea in this instance !
 
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cartmel,2 15:

DAGIAN was a good second to a useful rival on his last hurdles start in february at catterick,and a recent pipe-opner on the flat should have blown any cobwebs away now..big chance in a rather weak race..
 
stick said:
VALLEY OF FIRE 4/1 (11/2 last night) Ayr 3:35
Would have gone very close to winning a competitive little class five had he got a clear run last time. Dropped into a class six today and given two pounds of relief from the handicapper for good measure.

THIS HORSE IS A “MUST BET” TODAY
Click to expand...

On the drift which is a slight concern. The missus always says “horse doesn’t know what price it is”.
 
There may be an interesting bet in the Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes at Ascot on Saturday.

The 6F Group 3 race for 2YO's has seen the betting open with Charlie Appleby's Summer Romance the 7/4 Favourite. Summer Romance is generally favourite or joint favourite for next year's 1000 Guineas after romping home by six lengths last time out.

The possible angle into the race is that Charlie Appleby had originally stated that Summer Romance would go to France for the 7F Prix Six Perfections at Deauville on the same day as the Ascot race. Perhaps the double entry is to cover any going concerns on the day and keep options open. I would assume if the plan was to go to 7F next then it would be wise to stick with that than revert to 6F and potentially get entrenched as a sprinter.

The filly to go with in my opinion for the Ascot race is ULTRA VIOLET. Ed Vaughn's daughter of Gleneagles was slowly away on her debut over 6F at Newmarket and sat in the rear early, she started making good headway though and came through to take it up before clearing right away to win by 8 lengths in ready fashion. She probably didn't beat a lot but it was virtually impossible to beat good horses by as far as she did, so that has to be taken into account. The trainer had planeed to step her up in grade earlier but felt it would not have been fair to do so before giving her a bit more time and work. Her RPR on debut was 96 and that is well above average in my opinion and normally indicative of group class. As things stand she is no forlorn hope at 5/1 even if Summer Romance runs and if Summer Romance heads to Deauville then Ultra Violet starts a lot shorter.

I feel it's a gamble worth taking and I am looking forward to the race.

1.50 Ascot Saturday Ultra Violet 5/1
 
Surely running a horse with her front shoe missing is a disadvantage, if I'd known that before the off I wouldn't have backed her, I'm talking about the fav in the 650 Windsor, others thoughts would be interesting
 
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