3.30 Windsor Il Pazzo FC 25/1 - NAP I really like the look of Mike Murphyâs Il Pazzo tomorrow who makes his nursery bow off what I think is potentially a very lenient opening mark of 69. Although he showed only a bit of promise on his 2nd start before fading badly in the final furlong, the improvement shown on his 3rd start was huge as he put in an excellent effort to finish 3.25L back in 3rd over 7f at Leicester in August in a Class 5 Maiden at huge odds of 150/1. That day Il Pazzo raced prominently for the first time and looked to have every chance of taking the race until the final furlong before he faded badly but he still held on for 3rd. He travelled ominously well that day and he was given a hands and heels ride for the entire race, with the whip never once reached for. The form of that race is working out quite nicely too. The winner Stipulate has subsequently come out and run a very decent 4th in a Listed race, has an entry in another Listed race tomorrow and is now rated 91. The 2nd Devdas has subsequently come out and won a Class 4 nursery by 1.25L off a mark of 75 and also posted a decent 3rd off 81 in a Class 3 race. The 6th Gabrials Gift, who finished 1L behind Il Pazzo, has come out an won by 6L at Kempton on the AW. Furthermore, the 10th that day Wyndham Wave, who finished 4L behind tomorrows selection, winning on his 2nd start by 1.25L in a Class 6 Maiden. On his 4th and final start, Il Pazzo seemed to run into another hot race with debutants as he finished an 8.25L 7th in a Class 4 Maiden at Ascot at the start of 7f, although I think his performance was far better than the bare result. Once again Il Pazzo raced up with the pace and travelled as well as anything for the first 4 furlongs and was still bang there after 5.5 furlongs before finishing tamely as he dropped back. The form of this race looks very good too. The debutant winner Ortac Rock won his sole other start off a mark of 82 and is now rated 86. The 2nd Electrician won his 2nd start, is now rated 86 and was entered in a Group 3 on his 3rd and final start (came last). The 3rd Firestarter has put up 2 decent efforts off a mark of 78 and the 4th Eurystheus has won his only subsequent start. It seems clear to me that Il Pazzo has just run into some very nice types so far and he is definitely going to do much better now entered into a Nursery for the first time. When analysing his form and his races, it seems to me that an opening mark of 69 could be on the lenient side. I am absolutely delighted that he is dropped to 6f for the first time since his debut (ran ridiculously green) as he never seemed to get home over 7f in my opinion. Another very interesting thing I have noted is that in his last and best 2 races is that he has only ever been hit with the whip twice, which both occurred in his last race so there is certainly an argument that he has never been asked for maximum effort so far. Andrea Atzeni takes the ride tomorrow for the Murphy yard, and he has had 1 winner from 5 rides for the yard this year. Murphy commented after his 3rd that âthe quicker ground would have helped himâ so the current good to firm ground seems ideal. If the draw in stall 11 doesnât inconvenience him too much, I think that Il Pazzo has an absolutely cracking chance tomorrow and I will be absolutely delighted if he is anywhere near the forecasted 25/1. Iâll be having a good sized e/w bet on him and if everything falls right for him than I think he should play a major role at the finish. 5.00 Windsor Rock Anthem 10/1 - NB I quite like the look of Mike Murphyâs 7 year gelding in what looks a very open contest tomorrow. Although he doesnât win much, Rock Anthem last 2 wins came in the same race at Sandown in the same handicap a year apart in 2010 and 2009. Last year he was given a fantastic ride by Russ Kennemore off a mark of 72. He was waited with for a long time at the back of the field and Kennemore pushed the button inside 2 furlongs to go and Rock Anthem proceeded to blast through the field to get up in the last 100 yards to win by 0.75L to Beaumontâs Party. The effort was visually very impressive as he met a couple of momentum sapping spots on his way to victory. I believe there was still a lot of horse left under Kennemore at the end of the race. The 2nd in that race has subsequently come out and won twice off a mark of 75 (was 74 that day) and has finished a very respectable 4th off 83 LTO. A couple of others that day who were behind have come out to win off similar marks. Rock Anthem has 6 wins to date and his victory in 2009 came as a 5 year old when he was actually a 1L 2nd behind Desert Kiss. Rock Anthem was flying home that day but just couldnât get to the front, again off 72. Desert Kiss was rated 80 that day so considering he weighed in light its fair to say he was a couple of lbs lighter than that. Desert Kiss was a 4 year old at the time and he has subsequently gone on to win off marks of 85 and 89. The declared 2nd that day Poyle Meg, who raced off 77 that day and finished 1.75L behind Rock Anthem, has subsequently won off a mark of 80 on the AW. The 3rd has come out and won off a 1lb lower mark. Rock Anthem started the season disappointingly and came out and produced a rather disappointing run at Sandown where he was 2-2 over the C+D. However, he blew the start completely that day and I think he was probably saved for another day. Furthermore, the ground had probably gone against him with all his wins coming on ground that is good or better. Tomorrows ground is forecast to be Good so if we donât get any rain then I think the ground should be ideal. Rock Anthem continued the disappointing trend of poor performances when finishing a distant 9th at Brighton off a mark of 75. Martin Dwyer was booked that day and it was a bad run with no excuses. If that was his last run I would be very hesitant to back him but he definitely showed that he was returning to some sort of form LTO at Kempton on August 15th. Racing off a lower AW mark, Rock Anthem was dropped out the back by jockey Tony Culhane and he travelled very well throughout the race. Culhane brought Rock Anthem down the outside and he came with a very promising run and looked to have a serious chance 1f out. However, it became apparent that Rock Anthem was not going to win and he was eased in the final furlong eventually finishing 4L behind the winner Catchanova. The form of the race looks fine with Catchanova winning again off a 6lb higher mark and the 2nd Ferruccio coming 2nd off a 3lb higher mark. It definitely was evident that Rock Anthem was nearing his best form and looks sure to come on from that run. 2 starts ago Rock Anthem raced off a mark of 71, which is 1lb lower than his two victories in the two Sandown contests, and the same mark he raced off last time out as he is 2lb out of the handicap. Rock Anthem definitely continued to look like he was coming back to his best when finishing 3.25L behind Yensi at Leicester last month on ground that wasnât ideal as it was officially declared good, good to soft in places. In a race where it definitely paid to be ridden prominently as the front 2 home led from start to finish, Rock Anthem came from quite far back and definitely made inroads into the pace setters without quite getting there. That said I was very encouraged with the run and he definitely does not seem to have lost his ability. Last time out at Goodwood Rock Anthem finished 3.38L back in 8th but he never was incredibly unlucky in running. After tracking over from poor draw Rock Anthem was dropped out the back and grabbed the fence in last place. When turning for home, Kieran OâNeill tried to come with a run up the inside but he had absolutely nowhere to go at any stage in a race that clearly suited those who raced prominently. One thing was clear to me though and it was that he still looked to be in form and looked certainly capable of winning a race in the very near future. Tomorrow Rock Anthem drops back to a Class 5 and loses a further 2lb as he is racing off his correct mark. The stand out about Rock Anthem tomorrow is the booking of Kieren Fallon, who is only having his 2nd ever ride for Murphy with the first on Benandonner being a disappointment when a decently backed favourite. The jockey booking clearly indicates that Rock Anthem is going out to win tomorrow and I fully believe he can if getting a clear passage. Heâs 3lb lower than his last 2 wins, and clearly does well around this time of year with his last 4 wins and 2 places coming from August onwards. The current good to firm ground will be absolutely ideal and the 10/1 currently available looks far too big. I really think that Rock Anthem should go very very close to winning tomorrow if getting a clear run and Iâll have a decent bet on him landing this one.
One at a big price (or should be), for me tomorrow. It may struggle on ratings, but if you have a look at its last run last week at Windsor, I thought it was a very tentative ride to say the least. So I will be having a small e/w bet 15.00 Windsor, Memphis Man
ROTO. Another excellent analysis. Although it would be nice to read your analysis of the others in the race. The only criticism I have is this; could you find one at a decent price please?
I do it myself but its going to double the size of each write up if I throw that in too! Find you another horse against those 2 at a decent price or 1 in a different race?
I think Ron was refering, in a tongue in cheek kinda way, that you're napping a 25/1 shot and wondered whether you could find something with a little more value
Off to Tenerife tomorrow (courtesy of Cheltenham and Aintree ) for a week so not really looking at racing today HOWEVER have been given one for the Nursery at Ponty from one of the syndicate: 210Pont: Swift Encounter has come on loads since the win and is thought good enough to win this, they have had him entered in better races than this. Be Lucky all and OMG how good was Frankel and why did Laddies 'print' money at 1/2? I could not believe that, madness indeed, they must have been hoping he had gone over the top
Gary have a good one, Thats why you could not come on the trip i offered you, ? will let you know if i get anything for the future today im hopeing Descaro goes in turn out quick by Dave O and with SDS up top will be woth a punt also like aye aye digby Just finished my on call so going home for couple hrs kip then up to watch the racing with a pint Stay Frosty
Good morning from a very overcast and cold North of England, i see you have all been in fine fettle during my time away in a very hot and humid couple of weeks in Mexico. Hope your all in good health. Seeing as though the selection GDC put up in the 2.10 Pontefract has been withdrawn I have had a look at the remainder of the runners and like the look of the Mark Johnston runner HURRICANE EMERALD 10/1, with SDS looking for winners to close the gap on Champ PH I think this one could go close and offers decent EW value at 10/1. Went off as favourite LTO in similar company, he led and was driven over 2f out and headed over 1f out when beaten and hampered well inside final furlong finishing 3rd. The drop back in distance could be the difference today and he is a tentative selection. Good luck all
Wayward: You've confused him now, Dan struggles with English let alone anything else They have withdrawn him due to the ground, they want to win with him again before he goes away and he performs better with cut, they were banking on getting the rain! Without doubt one to support NTO mate I am backing 2 now with the money i laid out on Swift! 440Ponty: Cheddar George won well FTo and should have come on for the run. 500 Win: Lady Herries does well with her small string so Swift Blade is worth an EW poke at 14s, just a 'whim' though
No bet for me today can't see anything worth a punt....was nearly swayed with ROTO's assesment of Il Pazzo, however decline all today for me. good luck.
Freddie Tylicki boasts over a £40 level-stake profit in his career with Richard Fahey, a trainer who also boasts a 23% strike rate and £4.75 level stakes profit at Windsor. A nice combination and therefore I think Sunrise Safari 9/1 looks really good e/w value in the 3.00 Claiming Stakes. Ground much more in its favour today.
Just one for me today but is a decent price Pontefract 3.10 Sand Owl 9-1 ew This horse has had genuine excuses in some of his races this year and has run better than form suggests, he has dropped from a 3 to a 4 handicap now and i feel will take all the beating at an each way price. I have gone EW to be safe and as we are playing for 4 places but i expect him to Win.
Wayward Multi Beuno GDC slap for you when i see you next, im fluent in any gibberish language thats why i can talk to you Descaro next
