mid term review

Back in June I did a quick and dirty evaluation of the 24 clubs battling it out for this year’s spoils. I anticipated a clang of a testicle hitting the floor with some of my points being horribly inaccurate, so thought with a third of the season gone I’d see how my predictions were doing. I’ve left my original script for comparison.

A long article, but there is nothing better to talk about given the international break. It’s so long in fact that I had to split it in two as it exceeded the maximum length. I’ve added the clubs not in the article into the first comment.

Find your club and see if you agree.




Last years relegated teams didn’t find the going that easy with all three finishing in mid table. Financial issues seemed to be at the root of their problems.

Conversely, the promoted teams did very well with Norwich gaining back to back promotions and Milwall in 9th the lowest placed of the promoted teams, two places above Hull who were the best of the relegated teams.

UPDATE - This year’s promoted teams are faring as well as last with Posh in 11th the lowest placed and Southampton out in front. The three relegated teams are doing well. Brum are lowest placed in 13th but with games in hand. Another competitive season in the Championship.



My analysis by team:

Barnsley – no big news from here and being safe is likely to be the best they could hope for. Bottom third.
UPDATE - Little to be said. Hanging in there with safety the ultimate goal. A few bigger teams below them and it is how they fare which will determine Barnsley’s fortunes. They need to geep grinding out points.

Birmingham – a fire sale on the way which coupled with a new manager is likely to see Brum off to a slow start. How quickly they can rebuild will determine their final position. Similar to last season’s relegated teams in this regard, but likely to fare slightly better. Top third.
UPDATE - A slow start but running into form. Their European exploits mean they have 3 games in hand. While they have lost a few of their big names and money still appears tight, their new manager and signings seem to have fitted in well. How the extra European games will affect the squad in the long run will become evident in time. On current form, the playoffs look a minimum.

Blackpool – with news of a few sweeteners in the shape of a couple of loanees from Liverpool to seal a deal for Adam, the seasiders could do well. Didn’t spend big last season, with no big wages to support so there should be no financial problems. Their promotion saw them ‘get lucky’ on the last day of the regular season and it could be seen as a flash in the pan. Were well received in the premier league. Don’t underestimate the ‘Oli factor’….. An automatic spot unlikely, but another shot at the playoffs likley?
UPDATE - A slow start though some form being shown of late. With the form of other teams, autos look a step too far but anything but the playoffs would be a disappointment.

Brighton – could be another Norwich. Poyet has them playing a good style with a solid team and no stars. Some astute additions will give them a squad to compete at this level. Solid top third finish, with a chance of the playoffs.
UPDATE - A good start but have faded. A comfortable win against us before a wobble. Still need a few additions to finish in the top third.

Bristol City – carrot munching optimism as usual. If they lose Maynard they may struggle for goals. Low key signings and rumours though allegedly competing with us for a left back. Yet to reach the highs of their first season back at this level. Likely to be mid table.
UPDATE - Leaking goals (27) with only Donny conceding more (28). This is compounded by the lack of goals at the other end. Without the last 3 results their position would be far worse. Signs of improvement but need a run of results to haul them out of the mire. Could well struggle to avoid relegation. Worse than expected.

Burnley – interests in key players could put a dent in their squad. Didn’t spend big when they were promoted so living within their means. Appeared to underachieve last year so should will be hoping for the playoffs as a minimum. Top third.
UPDATE - At the opposite end of the table from my prediction. Their flirt with the top flight hasn’t provided the expected base for a further push for the top. Inconsistent performances with half the results being losses. No sign of marquee signings to push for the top. Will be safe but a revised forecast of mid table.

Cardiff – obviously a bias from me on this one. A new manager and major re-building of the squad required. A change in game plan and personnel will see a slow start. A number of positive indications for moves in the market. Will finish top third but the playoffs may be a step too far this season.
UPDATE - Have started better than expected. Major re-building has happened quicker than hoped. Have consistently beaten teams above them, including the current top two. Too many draws at the moment, but the defence seems to be settling. Goals from all over the park. Still lacking depth out wide. The playoffs look more achievable with autos a step too far.

Coventry – One of the ‘steady eadies’ of the division. Unlikely to set the division alight but should be safe. Bottom third.
UPDATE - A poor start with the better players being sold. Like many in the division appear short of cash. Bottom third still the forecast but the drop could be closer than expected.

Crystal Palace – financial problems remain with little sign of them abating. Won’t play big in the transfer market and are likely to struggle after a near miss last season. Bottom third.
UPDATE - Got off to a good start but have stalled of late. Exceeded expectations but look unlikely to maintain this for the season. Mid-table more likely, an improvement from the original forecast.

Derby – with the loss of their antagonist (verbally anyway), Mr Savage some of the energy in mid-field will be lost. Some key signings are needed to push them up the league but they will be safe. Mid table.
UPDATE - An excellent start to the season, with a minor wobble of late. Look unlikely to hold on in the long run unless a few additions can be made to the squad.

Doncaster – quietly go about their business and could be said to overachieve. Appear happy to be in this league and have survived a few seasons where ‘bigger clubs’ have been relegated. Likely to be another tough season. Bottom third.
UPDATE - A bad start and a change of manager. Saunders looking to turn things round with Diouf on loan and Pires being targeted. A few better results but still a bottom third finish and possibly worse.

Hull – financial problems remain. Unless they can shed their high earners (including, our loanee of last season) they will struggle to improve the squad. A watershed season for Hull with a mid table finish likely.
UPDATE - Have got off to a good start. Still have many of their high earners and look about to lose their manager. This could go either way, but mid table still looks the best bet.

Ipswich – look to have lost Wickham which is why Chops headed east over the hill. Flattered to deceive last season and Norwich’s promotion will have stung. If they invest the significant fee for Wickham wisely could become competitive. Top third.
UPDATE - Another team that can’t quite put it together. Good on their day, but too many average performances. Chops in the goals in bursts, but seems to be struggling with his demons. Mid table at the moment, but I expect better to come especially if Chops gets things sorted.

Leeds – A few of the crowd pleasers have already left with rumours of others to go. A few uninspiring early transfers and with Papa Smurf at the helm, unlikely to make significant strides. Their ‘right to be in the premiership’ will irk for another season with a mid table finish likely.
UPDATE - Have shown good form this season but have leaked too many goals. Another Cardiff old boy is in the goals with lots of attacking options. Have gone off the boil in the last month with discipline being a problem and costing results. If the defence can be shored up, should make the top third.

Leicester – the Man City of the Championship, or will it go the way of Notts County. Some big name signings (for the championship anyway) already with no signs of it abating. Sven isn’t proven in the lower leagues (except at international level) so it could go either way. Will be in the top third with the possibility of a top two finish if things come together with the squad being built.
UPDATE - As suggested, Sven unproven at this level and has gone. Similar to uss last season, looks good on paper but not coming together as a team. Will the new man at the helm (yet to be confirmed) have better fortune with the resources available. Could take a while to come together but fortunes should improve after Christmas. Still time to make the top two but the playoffs more likely.

 

Middlesbrough – Another difficult season ahead. Don’t seem to have the problems of Hull and Portsmouth but neither do they seem to be that attractive to players. Mowbray isn’t the most inspiring of managers but has been there before. Top third.
UPDATE - A tight defence but not enough goals to compete with the top two. Unbeaten at home, but too many draws an more wins on the road than at home. Playoffs look likely if their form can be maintained.

Milwall – A good first season in the championship and a good squad ethic. Jackett has renewed his contract and is unlikely to lose many of his squad. How he can add to it will be key. A mid table finish likely with a top third possible.
UPDATE - Not achieving last year’s form. Good results at home but struggling on the road. The squad still looks light with mid table still likely.

Forrest – getting promoted (FACT) as a result of all the key players signed (well DONE DEALs anyway). Another club facing a watershed season. Have competed at the top end of the division for a couple of seasons and a top 6 finish a possibility though may find the going tough.
UPDATE - Like Sven, another ‘big name’ manager that has departed. Lack of goals is costing them dear and they are finding the going tough. Cotterill doesn’t inspire me, but is likely to get the team toughing out results. Mid table at best unless a goal scorer can be found.

Peterborough – Will need to replace Mackail-Smith quickly and much will depend on the generosity of Fergusson senior. Could find the going tough with a bottom third finish likely and safety a result.
UPDATE - Exceeding expectations with high scoring games a speciality. 32 scored and 29 conceded makes for exciting games that can go ether way. If they can continue their goal scoring, mid table is a certainty. Strengthening the defence would push them further up the table. Have done well in front of goal given they lost Mackai-Smith.

Portsmouth – similar to Hull in their need to offload high earners. Need to create an identity and rebuild. Another mid table finish in my eyes.
UPDATE - Nothing to suggest I should change my original views. Not scoring enough goals and zero wins on the road will be a worry.

Reading – always competitive in the division. They need to hang on to McAnuff and Long to show a statement of intent. Holding on to their key players will see a top 6 finish with a top third finish almost guaranteed.
UPDATE - Player losses are taking their toll. Would have expected a better position at this stage of the season though there is a way to go. Top third still likely, though the playoffs look a stretch at the moment.

Southampton – Have quietly gone about their business and have a number of influential individuals in a good team structure. Will compete with anyone on their day but in this competitive division, the depth of their squad will be tested without further additions. Will be safe with a mid table finish likely.
UPDATE - The team of the season so far. Are definitely beatable as Cardiff showed. Show no fear and play their own game. Haven’t dropped a point at home with only two defeats on the road. Goals from a number of players with Lambert in a rich vein. UPDATE - Two thirds of the season to go but don’t look like letting up. How they deal with a run of bad results (which will come) will define their season. Look like being this season’s Norwich.

Watford – With the loss of their main man up front and with MM heading west, this will be a tough season for the Hornets. No sign of investment to strengthen the squad so bargain basement signings are likely to be Dyche’s fayre. Bottom third and could be worse!
UPDATE - Lost their manager, a number of backroom staff and some key players. It shows. Desperate for goals. With their shortage of cash, they would happily take their current position of 21st come the end of the season.

West Ham. – will be the team to beat. A few stars will leave but the Hammers should be too good for this division, similar to Newcastle the season before last. How they deal with games such as a windy Tuesday at Turf Moor will define their season. Top 6 guaranteed with top 2 probable.
UPDATE - Spluttered at the start of the season, losing their first game to a smash and grab (  ). Despite losing Parker look to run the midfield and control games. There will be a few more hiccups along the way but the original prediction looks correct.

 

my top six predictions are in ruins, reading, leicester and florist are killing me, never gave ston a thought, still have whu, cardiff, leeds. good post

 

it just shows how impossible the division is to predict, at the start of the season i thought birmingham, nottingham and leicester would occupy the top places, yet a promoted team leads the pack, you shouldnt have gone to all that trouble CCFC, why not predict the top 4 teams in england or the top 2 in spain for example, that would be easier