1. 101 AMERICAIN. USA (15) Gerald Mosse 58kg. Alain de Royer Dupre. 7yo H. Dynaformer-America. French raider who seems to grow another leg as soon as he steps off the plane. Cracking win here last year but goes up 3.5 kgs for that effort. His European form since then pretty ordinary. Jukebox Jury, Dunaden, Manighar and Red Cadeaux have at one point beaten him home. But he toweled up So You Think last year, and that horse has been tested in the best company of late. Had a stonking win in Moonee Valley Cup, will take some beating. Loves the track and the Melbourne Spring. The alley will not help though. 4-1. 2. 311 JUKEBOX JURY. IRE (6) Neil Callan 57kg. Mark Johnston. 6yo H. Montjeu-Mare Aux Fees. Has been in wonderful form in the Northern Hemisphere, winning the Irish St Leger beating Red Cadeaux, and the Kergorlay at Deauville. Before that finished third to Drunken Sailor at Goodwood. Has the tactical speed to take advantage of 6 gate. Should be going forward from the off, so should be close as they swing out of the straight the first time. Has class, but this is a huge ask. Is half owned by the connections of Americain. Value. 13-1. 3. 291 DUNADEN. (13) FR ? 54.5kg. Mikel Delzangles. 6yoH. Nicobar-La Marlia. French horse who's blossomed in Melbourne. 2nd at Longchamp behind Brigantin over 3100m then beaten in Kergolay behind Jukebox Jury. Then at first run here, had scintillating win in Geelong Cup 2400m. Came from well back, circling the field, to bolt in. So impressive was the run, he was instantly promoted to second favourite. Should make his presence felt at some stage when the whips are cracking. 11-2. 4. 137 DRUNKEN SAILOR. IRE IRE (8) Dwayne Dunn. 54kg. Luca Cumani. 7yoG. Tendulkar-Ronni Pancake. Nice Run in the Caulfield Cup. Bad barrier forced him well back, was held up when full of steam near the home corner. Once clear ran on well. A better alley here and an assured pace, should suit him down to the ground. His track work has been terrible though, but Cumani said that’s par for the course. Has had a wonderful year winning Meydan, Newbury and a couple of times at Goodwood. 50-1. 5. 201 GLASS HARMONIUM. IRE (23) Lisa Cropp. 54kg. Michael Moroney. 6yoH. Verglas-Spring Symphony. Bold going grey who lead all the way in Mackinnon, to earn a start here. Put in a shocker in the Cox plate when a big effort was expected. Bad barrier manners put an end to his chances. Questions are being asked about his ability to get the trip, and as he’ll probably be hunted up to get across, he might struggle in the straight. 30-1. 6. 844 MANIGHAR. FR (21) Damien Oliver. 54kg. Luca Cumani. 6yoG. Linamix-Mintly Fresh. Another who ran a nice race in the Caulfield Cup. Settled mid field and ran on. Seems a very honest type, but lacks that little bit of speed needed to take out a big one. His bad alley won’t help either. But has a rider who knows every blade of grass on this track, and is in fine form. 40-1. 7. 406 UNUSUAL PROSPECT. USA (7) ? 54kg. Michael Kent. 8yoH. Unusual Heat-Penpont. Galloped on and injured in the Cranbourne Cup when finishing 10 of 12. Put in a nice effort in the Caulfield Cup. 16th to the bend, came hard at the end. Produced the best final sectionals of the race to finish 6th, 3.5L away. Getting a bit long in the tooth, but so too are a host of the better chances. 25-1. 8. 461 FOX HUNT. IRE (19) Silvestre De Sousa. 53.5kg. Mark Johnston. 5yoG. Dubwai-Kiltubber. Has had a fair season so far, winning 3 of 8. Ran a close 4th in the G2 Goodwood Cup this trip then won a G3 at Dortmund. Has the tactical speed to overcome the draw. Likes the pace on and the trip, but didn't travel well and missed some work. 30-1. 9. 155 LUCAS CRANACH. GER (11) Cory Brown 53.5kg. Anthony Freedman. 5yoH. Mamool-Lots Of Love. German import who has been bought by Aust interests. Backed off the map when as much as 150-1 was secured. Went into his only Aust race with a cracked heel, but ran a blinder. Sweeping wide, he came hard on the run to the post. Three runs back, came with a wet sail to win G2 at Hamburg. A live chance. 9-1. 10. 312 MOURAYAN. (14) IRE Hugh Bowman. 53.5kg. SCRATCHED. Robert Hickmott. 6yoH. Alhaarth-Mouramara. SCRATCHED. Shifted a plate in Saturday's Mackinnon. He pulled up lame. Stable vet advised fitting bar plates to the front legs to offset the injury. Horse passed fit by vets at 6am, but after that, soreness found in toe of offending foot. 11. 009 PRECEDENCE. (2) NZ Darren Beadman. 53.5kg. Bart Cummings. 6yoG Zabeel-Kowtow. Just can’t seem to find form this season. Has a heap of ability, but can’t put it on the track. Was close enough on the bend in the Caulfield Cup, but gave nothing. In the hands of a man who’s won this race a dozen times, so anything can happen. 40-1. 12. 053 RED CADEAUX. GB (16) Michael Rodd 53.3 kg. Ed Dunlop. 6yoG. Cadeaux Genereux-Artisia. Has a points win over Ebor winner Moyenne Corniche, winning the Listed Braveheart Stakes at Hamilton. Won G3 Curragh Cup. Last start, 3rd to Duncan and Jukebox Jury in G1 Irish St Leger. Meets Jukebox Jury 4kg better. Gets same advantage for 4L defeat in Kergolay. Another who has to be taken on trust due to no local form. 30-1. 13. 220 HAWK ISLAND. IRE (18) Glyn Schofield. 53kg. Chris Waller. 7yoG Hawk Wing-Crimphill. Has been battling away in Sydney for some time now. Two runs back, ran on well in G1 over 2400m to finish 2nd behind The Verminator. Was a nice run, but never in the hunt against winner. 80-1. 14. 213 ILLO. GER (1) Jim Cassidy. 53kg. Bart Cummings. 6yoH. Tertullian-Iora. Raced well in German Listed and G3 events before the trip here, winning two of them and second in another. At his only run here, finished 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup well up in the first half dozen most of the race, but no match for Americain. Will get a lovely run from the one slot and will be for a long way. Has the services of J.B. Cummings and 100 time G1 winner Jim Cassidy, but has he the class? 18-1. 15. 274 LOST IN THE MOMENT. IRE (3) William Buick. 53kg. Saeed Bin Suroor. 5yoH. Danehill Dancer-Streetcar. Seems to just below the top class in the UK. Ran a nice 2nd in the Goodwood Cup over this trip. Got a long way back but ran on well. Two runs back in the Ebor, was a little unlucky but was out gunned in the final furlong. Last start in the G3 Cumberland Lodge at Ascot, got dropped when they sprinted, but stayed on at finish. 22-1. 16. 241 MODUN. IRE (5) Kerrin McEvoy. 53kg. Saeed Bin Suroor. 5yoG. King’s best-Olympienne. Mountain of a horse who will appreciate the open spaces of Flemington. 2nd of 19 in the Heritage at York where he beat Lost In The Moment. Two runs ago in Ebor, he ran 4th to Moyenne Corniche, beaten just under 3L. Meets the winner 1.5kg better. Seems to be the stable elect. 25-1. 17. 622 AT FIRST SIGHT. IRE (10) Steven King. 52.5kg. Robert Hickmott. 5yoH. Galileo-Healing Music. Runner up to Workforce in the Derby after breaking clear at the top of the straight. A great run. Has since been bought by local interests. Seems to be coming into his own at the right time. Two runs back ran 2nd G3 2000m when flew home. Last run Bendigo Cup, again came late. Looks as though the trip will suit. 12-1. 18. 013 MOYENNE CORNICHE. GB (17) Brett Prebble. 52kg. Brian Ellison. 7yoG. Selkirk-Miss Corniche. On paper, seems one of the better visiting chances. Had a going away win in the Ebor two runs ago after being 6th on the bend. Then at only run here, a very nice 3rd G2. Held up on corner then stormed to the post. Alley won’t help, but wouldn’t surprise to see him in the money. Gets in with a postage stamp on his back. 20-1. 19. 580 SAPTAPADI. IRE (22) Chris Symons. 52kg. Brian Ellison. 6yoG. Indian Ridge-Olympienne. Really interesting prospect. Trainer is of the opinion that he’s better that Moyenne Corniche. On the face of it, his form looks poor. But ridden upside down in Ebor when 5th. Dropped further back than wanted in G2 here, but ran on well to mid field. Ridden against instructions in Caulfield Cup, when did nothing. 100-1. 20. 070 SHAMROCKER. NZ (24) Luke Nolan. 52kg. Danny O’Brien. 4yoM. O’Reilly-Bohemian Blues. Multiple G1 winner last campaign. Beat the boys in VRC Derby, but done nothing this time in. Failed to finish in the first half of her last three runs, all at G1. If she can find form, she’ll figure in it. 40-1. 21. 510 THE VERMINATOR. AUS (4) Craig Newitt. 52kg. Chris Waller. 5yoG. Juene-Fraar Side. Sydney-sider who is racing in fine form at home. Put in a poor effort behind Glass Harmonium in the Mackinnon. Cracked it for his first G1 win before that at home in the Metropolitan where he charged down the straight for an easy win. On that, he’s a chance, but on his last run, he’s no hope. 100-1. 22. 832 TULLAMORE. NZ (12) Chris Munce. 52kg. Gai Waterhouse. 5yoG. Savabeel-Trocair. Looks to be the best of the Sydney chances. Two runs back in the Caulfield Cup, was 4th on bend, but out gunned by first two. Last start in Moonee Valley Cup, looked a big chance on bend, but hammered by Americain who gave him a cold when he flew past. In with a shout on the weights. 25-1. 23. 201 NIWOT. AUS (9) Dean Yendall. 51kg. Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes. 7yoG Galileo-Too Darn Hot. Jumped over a host of better ranked horses to grab a start here, when he scored on Saturday. He’s a very lightly raced old bloke who is back from a serious knee injury: vets said he’ll never race again. Gets a stone off the top ones and looks a real chance. Flogged them in the Lexus, putting them to the sword in exciting fashion. 12-1. 24. 530 OLDER THAN TIME. AUS (20) Tim Clark. 51kg. Gai Waterhouse. 5yoM. Don Eduardo-Up The Hill. Sydney mare who looks tested here. Her best run though, was before she left for Melbourne, when she finished 3rd of 16 in Listed company. Then did nothing in Lexus behind Niwot. Win would be a shock. 80-1.
nice write up cyc. mark johnston as 2 runners this year after not bothering for many years now. jukebox jury is not well handicapped i dont think.hes won 3 from 4 group races this term and would be similar to double trigger. looking at his form i see a poor effort in dubai in a large field.he also managed to get himself stuck on the rail in a 10 runner race at goodwood he managed to win from a wide draw at deaville recently in a fairly big field and think the field size is the negative for him along with his high weight.in smaller fields hes been allowed to dominate at his own tempo,but in bigger fields like in dubai,he was forced to go faster which resulted in him finishing near last and as also found himself trapped in on the rail at goodwood. fox hunt i dont think as that mix of speed and stamina. at ascot,his stable mate jutland helped push the front runner to set a fairly decent gallop on soft ground on a testing track making stamina more important.2 runs later at goodwood,the leader quickened away 5f out and caught the eventual 1-2-3-4 flat footed.all 4 got outpaced but fox hunt was the worst of the 4 as he lost the most ground and had to be really vigorously ridden by his jockey to keep up and get 4th in the end.the long run in helped him also it think.it was similar at york ebor,losing his place when they quicken up for home before staying on well in the long straight.totally think this course his not for him with a 2 1/4 f run - in.he doesnt seem to have that quickening ability when the tempo increases and takes a while to get rolling again and eventually stay on. red cadeaux is a ed dunlop first i believe.better of at the weight compared to juke box jury.more rain the better and think he would need it softer than the dead5. ive warmed to modun more and his price is massive it think.think dunaden still as the best chance of the euro raiders.
The race is choc full of chances GP. You have a much better idea of the UK chances than I do, I can only go on what I've seen here. I've been brought up on lead up racing. It's unheard of in this part of the world, to lob a stayer into a 3200m race without a few runs before hand. So rightly or wrongly, we tend to favour horses who have looked good in recent times. It just seems easier if you at least know that the animal is going well, instead of having to hope it's going well. There are quite a few locals who were flying last campaign, but who are now struggling. If they were entered without those lead up runs, we'd be flushing our cash down the toilet. For the reasons mentioned above, I've stuck with those who've done a bit of late. For mine, the three best lead up runs came from Americain, Dunaden and Niwot. The latter gets 7kg of last year's winner, and Americain is too short for me. Same goes for Dunaden. I read today that bookies face a million dollar payout if Niwot wins. I've had my first bet in years. Niwot each way.
greatpilsudski: Cannot agree with you on Fox Hunt. Take a look back at some of his video replays. To me, he gallops with zest, often carrying a welter burden. However, was quite disappointed to just read in Cyclonic's excellent summary that he had travelled badly and, as a result, had missed work. This is a real dampener but nevermind, just have to hope he has got over his travel blues!
swanhills i have looked at foxhunts form cause he was baffling me as hes got good form but you view his ascot win,he was totally at ease in the testing conditions and well on top at the finish ,all emphasis was on stamina due to testing ground and a testing track. but then go to the goodwood cup.they started fast but overturn slowed it down halfway before quickening at the top bend.a lot of jockeys then started to get serious with there mounts as overturn had gone a bit clear.look at foxhunt around 4f out hes ridden hard and cannot up the pace.it was only in the last furlong that he was gaining. the likely hood is the mc cup is going to be run more like the goodwood cup than of his ascot race.they start to quicken up about 4f out in the mc cup which is still on the curve before they hit the home straight with just over 2f to go.i can only see imo foxhunt losing ground before the final bend when the pace quickens but once in the home straight he should stay on again but think it will be all over by then.
GP: Yes, you make some very good points there and you are probably right the way the race will be run. The going forecast is apparently good-to-soft which would be perfect for a strong galloper. Main concern, as I said above, is the fact he has missed some work. Still, am happy with my modest e/w bet at 25's.
I've championed his case a lot in the last couple of weeks and I have to stay with Lost In The Moment. There are pieces of form this season that suggest to me he has the ability in the locker to make his presence felt in the Melbourne Cup. He stayed on strongly in 3rd over 10f behind Green Destiny at York (now rated 117 after running very well in the Champion Stakes at Ascot), and had that rival behind previously when being caught late by Beachfire. His run at Goodwood in the Group 2 Goodwood Cup is exceptional form, 0.10 length behind Opinon Poll and extremely unlucky in running. Opinion Poll is multiple winner and placed at Group 1 staying level, so for me it is clear that Lost In The Moment does have the ability there if he gets a bit of luck and gets it all together. It was William Buick who rode him at Goodwood and I am pleased with his booking in the saddle for Melbourne this week. He receives roughly 9lb from Jukebox Jury and Americain, which I think is really handy when you consider Lost In The Moment might possess similar ability.
A little news on Fox Hunt and Jukebox Jury. Mark Johnston has some stuff to say about their chances. Of Fox Hunt he said that as far as he was concerned, Fox Hunt would appreciate the slackening of the pace mid race but come on strongly in the straight. He described him a a real tough horse. Johnson believes that Jukebox Jury is the class horse of the race, but as this is his first attempt at a handicap, he thought this to be "a different kettle of fish." He said that the horse's weight was no friend, but didn't think that it was the problem. The huge field has him worried. He said "It's quite alien to him." The horse will press forward. The horse is feeling really well. I've included a link to a nice piece that gives an insight into the race and Mark Johnston's thinking. http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/jury-duty-20111030-1mqk5.html
It seems that all the international trainer are eyeing each other. Ed Dunlop, Luca Cumani and Alain de Royer Dupre all see Mikel Delzangles' Dunaden as the one to beat. Cumani described Dunaden as the horse to beat, progressive, and in with nothing on his back. He also said that he'd done well in Europe this year. Dupre agreed but also added that Jukebox Jury is a very good horse racing in career best form. Delzangles was keen to downplay his horse's chances. He said that the horse is going well, but has not improved like Americain has. It is hard to compare Americain in Europe to Americain in Australia, he's a totally different horse here so it is hard to compare him to Dunaden,'' he said. He added. ''It's maybe the biggest race in the world and definitely the most popular race in the world, so it would be very special for me to win with my first runner.''
Seems as though Silvestra De Sousa wasn't too keen on making the trip. He wanted to stay in the UK to chase the rider's title.
Cyc: Good day to you! Many thanks for all the info and the clip; very interesting. Up early tomorrow morning! You are right about Mr. De Sousa, he really did not want to make the trip (I recall there were one or two trips in my life I didn't want to make either), as he does have a bit of a chance in the riders title. Really looking forward to the Cup, as always! GL with your bet BTW!
Cyc: Nice write up mate, i have backed Ellisons 2 but purely because i backed them both in the Ebor and would be gutted if one won Only small stakes EW but Saptapadi could go well! After reading your report i will have a nice EW bet on Niwot Enjoy the race mate
Thanks gents. Being my first bet in a few years doesn't bode well. I might prove to be short of a gallop.
As a big fan of Drunken sailor I really couldn't let the 50s with 5 places on offer from Bet 365 go without a nibble.
I've generally steered clear of drunken sailors, they tend not to be able to handle their drink. Good luck mate.
ive set the alarm but will probably miss this race,so done my bets early. dunaden,modun and niwot all each way and combined in forecasts. never really understood the race before but some great websites and video replays out there that helps a lot. good luck
Cyclonic, good day! I wouldn't have a bet in the race- it looks so difficult to call- but Modun may run well; he seems an improver and I like the jockey.
Just taken 36.0 on Betfair for Lostinthemoment, just got to try and get up/stay up for the race tomorrow. I know Attheraces showed the Caulfield Cup, will they show the Melbourne Cup?
Yep Toppy live on ATR. The Ellison pair of Moyenne Corniche and Saptapadi for me who both look very overpriced. Ellison is incredibly confident of his horses chances, especially Saptapadi, and with a clear run they should both go very close. From a personal perspective I would love to see Moyenne Corniche win but as a betting perspective I've backed both and they are very overpriced IMO
