For those that are saying that mathematically we ARE safe, are talking nonsense. I just put the below scores into the calculator, and it has brought the below table. Now, i know that this is extremely unlikely, but...you never know. (my tip would be to stick a pound on all thse coming in...at least then we'll all be rich watching us play in L1) Your predictions: Barnsley 1 0 Hull City Birmingham City 0 1 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers 1 0 Crystal Palace Blackpool 1 0 Derby County Bolton Wanderers 0 1 Blackpool Brighton and Hove Albion 0 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers Bristol City 0 1 Huddersfield Town Burnley 1 0 Ipswich Town Charlton Athletic 0 1 Bristol City Crystal Palace 0 1 Peterborough United Derby County 0 1 Millwall Huddersfield Town 0 1 Barnsley Ipswich Town 0 1 Birmingham City Millwall 0 1 Blackburn Rovers Millwall 1 0 Crystal Palace Millwall 1 0 Nottingham Forest Peterborough United 1 0 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 1 0 Middlesbrough Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 0 Burnley Team Pld W D L F A W D L F A Pts GD Millwall 46 10 3 10 25 28 8 7 8 28 31 64 -6 Blackburn 46 11 5 7 27 22 5 9 9 27 37 62 -5 Blackpool 46 8 9 6 31 23 7 7 9 29 37 61 0 Burnley 46 9 8 6 30 22 6 5 12 29 38 58 -1 Sheffield Wed 46 9 4 10 29 35 7 6 10 23 26 58 -9 Peterb' United 46 8 5 10 34 39 8 4 11 31 33 57 -7 WolveS 46 8 7 8 30 33 8 2 13 26 32 57 -9 Barnsley 46 9 5 9 25 31 6 7 10 29 37 57 -14 Ipswich Town 46 9 5 9 31 27 6 7 10 14 33 57 -15 Huddersfield Town 46 7 9 7 26 25 8 3 12 23 46 57 -22 Bristol City 46 8 4 11 39 42 4 4 15 19 36 44 -20
5 teams to finish on 57 points I'd like to know what odds the bookies would give you for that sequence of results stretch... You'd be richer than Marcus Evans off a £1 bet
Stretchy, thanks for posting this, we know it's not mathematical and as I mentioned we need 15-20 results all to go against us, however this won't be the only combination of results that would see us relegated so you could put your quid on, lose it and still see us go down!
The amount of work to be done to figure that out accurately would be collossal. You would have to work out the likelihood of any given result based on home and away, form, head to head, past patterns of results over the last two games for teams in certain scenarios... 0.3% sounds like roughly the probability if any given result was as likely as another.
Cheers Warky - the bookies are of course the only ones with an interest in working these sorts of probabilities out properly. Bearing in mind they keep the odds on their side that means there is LESS than 0.0125% chance!
Mick and TC have worked a miracle since they arrived with an average of 1.64 points per game that would have got us into 4th place if they had started in the summer! Amazing performance and well done to all for the hard work put in!
Yes a good lighthearted response Guru and also agree entirely with Wark's about Micks impact since he was appointed manger, really nothing short of stupendous, given the situation he inherited and the crazy competitive nature of this league (particularly this season!!)
First result to go against us (Blackburn beating Millwall) - If the other 18 come in we're doomed - DOOMED I TELL YA!!
Come on Stretchy get a grip! All we need to be 100% certain is 1 point from our last 2 games and then it wont matter what any team does below us!
Let him put a big bet on. Maybe he can win the money he owes us so that he can pay us back and leave.
