So Unaccompanied is avoiding the festival and Voler La Vadette is running away from Quevega, believing a battle with Big Bucks in the World Hurdle will be easier than taking on Willie Mullins mare. I am already on at 13/8, 6/4 and 5/4, she is still 8/11 with Ladcrooks and a general 4/6, however I really don't think they've adjusted their books enough. Kentford Grey Lady is now 2nd fav with Alasi probable 3rd fav - so is 8/11 still a fair price, I'd say yes. Clearly not a working mans price and backing odds on shots at the festival is usually the fast track to the poor house, but barring accidents this is as close to a walkover as you get. Bar the box driver getting lost can anyone see any danger to Quevega lifting her 4th Mares crown ?
To put it short... No But a horse with as much ability as Quevega shouldn't be running in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham, Yes shes on a four timer but like I said good horses don't run in Grade 2's every year at the Festival or at least they shouldn't do. Coming in the top two in the World Hurdle is worth a fair bit more than the David Nicholson and recieving 7lb all round she'd have an all mighty chance of placing and who knows maybe doing the unthinkable. She stays 3 miles very well and loves Cheltenham for Me she should be running in the World Hurdle
Wooly that's not going to happen, she can only take 2 or 3 max races a year, she will win in March and that'll be her 4th Mares hurdle at 8 years of age, how many of teh things can she win ? 6, maybe 7 ? She'll go down in history as the winningest most horse in Festival history, and it's a record that'll never be beaten. 8/11 actually looks value to me.....
I say definately 6, cant really see anything coming close to her; She will be up there with Big Bucks! I know it is asham I just feel Mullins is abit shy in stepping her up in company! It is an easy/ comfatable option, I might be wrong just the way I feel, 8/11 is definately value, its like printing money. I think she is the 1st pick of most peoples ante post bets for the festival. She is definately one of mine!
Your right Wooly, Beating inferior horses in a Grade 2 every year isn't great. Connections need to grow a pair and let her take her chance in the big staying hurdle race at Cheltenham...
I'm playing devils advocate here a little so forgive me Istabraq, but if she was yours would you pass up the option of creating history or step her up in class ? I would take the option of history I think. Mullins already has the Fly so the CH is sewn up, Nicholls has Bucks so the WH is sewn up, now sure what other options exist ?
I know what your saying Grizz, But surely shes made history already? Theres not many horses with the '3' wins in the same race at Cheltenham and its hardly a Championship race. £55,000 for the David Nicholson or nearly £148,000 for the World Hurdle for Me it would have to be the World Hurdle. Shes the best Ireland as to offer over hurdles and 3 miles unless Solwhit doesnt take to fences. No horse is a certainty, The Fly and Big Bucks will be both hard to beat but you should never be scared of one horse. Any horse is beatable if things fall right, Quevega stays and travels very well at Cheltenham and would be recieving 7lb. Im not saying she'd win the World Hurdle but never say never...
She's won 2 "World Hurdles" at Punchestown - maybe Willie realises there's no sense taking on Big Bucks? Also she did try for the Rabobank Champion Hurdle but finished 3rd behind Solwhit and Punjabi. Fine mare but no chance in a Champion Hurdle and no chance against Big Bucks so why not farm the Mares race?
All very valid points Istabraq. But I don't think money is the issue, the owners are a syndicate of Irish businessmen, I reckon they back her off the boards, collect a fortune and enjoy their guaranteed half hour in the winners enclosure then sit up all night drinking. I just think the lure of making history is huge.....
Exactly-I dont think she has the ability to beat either, if the fly doesnt turn up that would make it very intresting indeed, big bucks you can chuck anything at him and he just knocks them out the park, this year will be his hardest test to date at the festival (last yr was close) but I feel OW is a better hurdler than Grand Crus but either way give her a try in a step up, then if it doesnt work can always put her back. Records are one thing but if they rate her that much (wich she is a phenomanl mare - she is better than VDLV and she has impressed this yeat! but I feel she could have definate place claims at least in both! But as you say Ista- Never say never, all you need is a bit of luck!
I wasn't implying she'd actually tackle the Champion Hurdle she's never been a 2 miler, Just using the example even though Hurricane Fly will be hard to beat like Big Bucks you should never be afraid of one horse. I just think winning a Grade 2 every year at Cheltenham is a poor use of a horse who is clearly better...
Agree with Oddy on this. Realistically she probably wouldn't beat either Hurricane Fly or Big Buck's so why try? Just keep racking up the wins in the Mares race and let everybody marvel at a quite brilliant mare. She can then go to Punchestown and beat the best of the rest in the staying division again. Keep it simple as far as I'm concerned. As for the value, I'll be waiting for some distance betting. It's normally something I avoid like the plague but I cannot see anything other than a 10+ length victory for Quevega and hard on the steel too. Surely taking a price on 5+ lengths (or similar depending on prices) is the way to go?
Swincombe Flame? Not for me if that is the one. Still has a mountain to climb and looks like being better over further too.
Good shout that man. I won't disagree until Stick says we're both wrong! She was beaten into 3rd by Swincombe Flame in the Mares' Bumper at Sandown though . . .
