Lady Aria Is in my opinion the best 2 year old maiden filly on these shores Trained by Michael Bell she has only run 3 times and last time out finished second in a Group 3 Probably needs fast ground to be seen at best, will update when entered to run again
Amazing that the dam (who never ran) of this filly was sold for just £2,000 as a 3YO in 2011. People, there are undoubtedly bargains out there. From a punting perspective if Lady Aria goes for a maiden next then you are looking at an odds-on shot (long, long, long odds-on if they go for an easy one) or much bigger odds if continuing in Group class – 33/1 available for next weekend’s ‘Cheveley Park’.
I slighty misread the post but unless you fancy backing her at 1/4 next time it doesn't really matter. She's not exactly going to be anything special.
Good point and does have an entry next Friday at Haydock, but I do think she will win some nice races in the future once the maiden is out of the way
According to the Racing Post figures, Lady Aria won her maiden but ran 19 lbs below her previous run. She came into her latest race after a 102 performance the time before and with an official rating of 100, but ran to 83 on RPR in winning. A win can obviously boost confidence but she beat a very poor bunch there and I would be wary myself.
Yes it was an ordinary race hence her odds, and it told us nothing new about the horse Went well on the soft ground though, which should be an asset this autumn
I'd be worried about her if they decided to put her in a nursery though. For me, her mark of 100 on the official ratings might just be a bit high. The filly who beat her in the Group 3 Dick Poole, Yourtimeisnow, from the Varian yard, had come into the race rated 89 and was awarded a 13 lb rise for winning it from the official handicapper. Perhaps that new mark convinced Roger Varian to try her in Group 2 company in the Rockfel but she disappointed badly, well down the field and running to an RPR of 79. Looking at Yourtimeisnow and her overall five runs, the mark she earned at Salisbury seems to stand out as way better than the rest. I have a theory that the assessors seem to boost ratings just because a race is a Group race and ignore what I feel must be the case ie that you get bad renewals of Group races every now and then. Maybe I'll be wrong but I am a bit wary.
I forgot to add that it might have been better for Lady Aria if she had not run in the Dick Poole. Given her previous runs and then her maiden win, you might have been looking at her on a handicap mark of 86 or thereabouts. Surely it would be better starting off in handicaps from a stone lower mark and then maybe winning a couple on the way to a mark of 100, than running placed and letting the "Genie out of the bottle" so to speak? Good luck if you are following her.
Lady Aria is entered in the Bosra Sham Stakes at Newmarket on Friday. She will line up the highest rated in the 6F Listed contest. There are 19 Fillies entered with several very exposed looking sorts in the mix. With a few more lightly raced ones to consider, much is going to depend on who actually turns up and what the odds on offer will be. I always felt this race quality is a bit of an insult to Henry Cecil's Guineas winning filly and looking through previous winners doesn't really get the heart pumping nor does it set lightbulb moments off inside your head. I am interested in Third Of March, who is a potential raider from Ireland. She came on quite a bit from her first run to land a 5 and a half furlong maiden easily by more than 5 lengths. The Aidan O'Brien runner up that day was Evens fav and he went on to land a race easily on his next start. The bare form laves Third Of March not needing much more to be in the mix and with the extra half half furlong and further progress likely to help I feel she's very interesting contender for owner trainer Michael O' Callaghan. The stable could be in better form but I feel the filly will be a player if making the trip to Newmarket. Hope this is of interest as an update to the thread.
I noticed Third Of March was not in the nine declared. I'm not sure why some of these trainers bother entering them up, as they rarely seem to turn up. Lady Aria was 3/1 in the betting guide I saw but I am not sure she will be those odds. It doesn't look like a strong race at all.
I couldn't back her because of the stable form. Michael Bell is 0/23 the past two weeks and perhaps more importantly his RTF (Horses running to form) in that period is an awful 30% The runner-up in Lady Aria's latest race was thrashed in a handicap off 76 next time out and Lady Aria won that race despite running to well below her Dick Poole form. I think Aldana has a sporting chance at 5/1, given that Crisford is in good form with 6/24 and RTF 89%, which is miles ahead of Bell's current form. I went for the outsider Angelic Light for a couple of quid, as I feel she is well underrated on OR 93 only 7 lbs behind the favourite. She has kept a lot better company than these, so no disgrace in running behind horses at the head of the Guineas betting. I'd rather lose £2 at 20/1 than back a shorter price. Best of luck today.
