If there was a post on here talking about the Denman chase last friday, then I think I've missed it - so sorry if I'm just being blind. What did we all think to Long Run? What we know is that he beat Burton Port by half a length or so, with What a Friend a few lengths back, and the non-stayer The Giant Bolster (that's not to belittle his ability over say, the Ryanair trip...) and the ever awkward Tidal Bay a little way back. I don't really know how I felt about it. I think Long Run should be a shorter price than he is for the Gold Cup. I think he's a real potential champion, and the longer trip should see him reverse form with Kauto Star. So for me, he had to win on Friday. Which he did. But was it good enough? I mean at the end of the day, he gave What a Friend (rated 169) 10lbs and a four length beating - that sounds impressive, and if it was Kauto we'd be saying it was phonomenal... The thing is, I think, that I'm not convinced by any of the yardsticks. What a Friend has been a bit flat this season, The Giant Bolster isn't a stayer, Tiday Bay was a mess after a jumping error, and Burton Port is back from such a long injury lay-off. So, did he do enough to justify a favourites shot in the Gold Cup?
I think the horse needs a rhythm and whilst SWC is a very good amateur, I dont think he is suited to the horse. He has got the stamina and class, so I think Id like to see a paient ride and one that is well-timed, because we know he will respond. A clean round is what he wants and I just think SWC is a little inconsistent in what he asks of the horse and a little niggly. Has a very good chance in the Gold Cup but needs to be as good as last year at least.
I have the Gold Cup as a 2 horse race this year, as do many people I think. Long Run and Kauto Star are far enough head of the field (both on paper and on what they've shown this season) to make it very unlikely that any other horse will enter calculations for the win. That's not to say the rest are rubbish, but I just don't see any of them capable of putting in a 180 performance, which I think is what it will take to lift the crown this year. I am firmly in the Long Run camp purely on stamina grounds. Looking at last year's Gold Cup, both Kauto Star and Denman ran absolute belters and gave their everything and yet Long Run stayed on past them up the hill with relative ease. Yes he was outpaced coming down the hill, but that withering late run up the home straight is an enduring image. If the Gold Cup were over 3 miles I'd be all over Kauto Star but I've always thought the additional distance plus the hill stretch him to the limit. As for the Denman chase, I briefly looked at the replay and my first thought was that Burton Port has run a cracker. I was pleased to see Long Run win though and he did battle well to get his head in front. 3 miles round Newbury is pretty similar to 3 miles round Haydock so I'm not surprised that Long Run had to struggle a little bit - he really does need every yard of the Gold Cup trip. It will also have given SWC a bit of a boost before Cheltenham, he has not been having a good season prior to that. I'm sure connections will be very happy with where they are with Long Run this morning and I'm sure NH will have him cherry ripe for Gold Cup day again. It promises to be another classic race
On Fridays performance Long Run doesn't win the Gold Cup for me, his forte has always been stamina but he was being swallowed up by Burton Port all the way to the line, that said it could be LR was undercooked and by how much only a handful of people will ever know. I'm out on a limb in saying Kauto can't win another Gold Cup, Burton Port would have a real chance on Fridays performance alone especially after such a lay off but the one thing that kept going through my mind on Friday was Weapons Amnesty - he destroyed Burton Port in the RSA and it's such a shame that horse has suffered injury as he would certainly have been a real contender if not favourite for a Gold Cup had he not been off. I'm still looking at the rags - there could be a 50/1 shot lurking to spring a surprise...
After his run at the weekend I'm glad my e/w on Little Josh for the Gold Cup was NRNB ...................
I thought it was the perfect prep race, giving weight away to fair horses over a course and distance that didn't really suit his stamina forte. Unlike Burton Port, Long Run was running as a prep for the Gold Cup and hence I think we will see him improve a good deal on the bare form of the run (I think he will finish 10lengths+ ahead of Burton Port in the CGC). He was left in front long enough too and I thought he was always holding on to the race through the closing stages. I see him as the best bet of the Cheltenham festival, and I was very happy to take a longer price after his winning prep, than he was before it. Another interesting move from the bookmakers.
I must admit that i found the race to be a lot closer than i thought, though i didnt expect LR to sluice up by any great winning margin, i did expect him to win. I think that BP ran a blinder but im not sure that come GC day the hill will be any help for him and will play more into the hands of LR. The only question is will the race be won by LR or KS... Its a Long Run victory for me, but again its a race that we are all looking forward to watching... Cant wait...
I must say that over the weekend I have had a total change of heart re the CGC. Up until this point I had always believed it to be a 2 horse affair (Long Run and Kauto Star) but now I ain’t so sure. The general consensus seems to be somewhere along the lines of either (i) Kauto has improved a stone from last term and Long Run remained at the same level or (ii) Kauto has improved 7 pounds from last season and Long Run deteriorated 7 pounds. The net outcome being that they are now at a very similar level especially over 26.5 furlongs around Cheltenham. But what if, in reality, Kauto has remained at the same level (afterall is it really feasible that a battle hardened 12YO is now at his peak once again?!?) and Long Run deteriorated a stone?!? That would change the entire ‘ball game’. Looking at the formlines from this season the key horse is Weird Al in my mind. He was beaten 10 lengths by Kauto and 8 by Long Run in the ‘Betfair Chase’. I had assumed at the time that Weird Al had run a corker and genuinely felt he had a chance of placing the CGC off this effort. But looking at his overall form Weird Al has no other formline anywhere near this strong so did Kauto and Long Run actually under achieve in the ‘Betfair Chase’ rather than Weird Al overachieve?!? If this is the case and Weird Al actually ran to his previous best ever form in the ‘Betfair Chase’ then Kauto and Long Run would be merely 170 or so performers and be much closer to there rivals than most punters and all bookie chappies think??? Such a scenario would make both vulnerable to either a rapidly improving sort or a beast stepping up in trip after previous excelling at lesser distances. Re Long Run’s prep race last Friday I thought it was a satisfactory performance by him and likely to put him spot on for the CGC. Don’t forget though it was merely his hors d'oeuvres rather than his main course. I still think that Long Run the most likely winner of the CGC next month but would suggest that the gap that him and Kauto have over the rest of the field is far, far less than many imagine.
Sir Barney I think Weird Al has posted 2 career-best efforts this season and was "wrong" last season. He seems rejuvenated at the McCain yard and I'm happy to have him as a 165-170 animal.
Long Run ran a perfect trial for CDC in my opinion the one to beat.I have backed him accordingly. It is entirely possible that he peaked last year and isn't going to make the improvement one would expect from six to seven years of age.He has already had 21 career starts. That doesn't temper my enthusiam in the least because a reproduction of last years run will be more than good enough and I have seen nothing to suggest he can't win the race again.
