17 from 24: 70.8% Strike Rate: Profit/Loss +£6.29(per level £1 backers stake) Hi guys, Mentioned the other day that with the autumn/winter fast approaching and National Hunt about to start, I would run a second Lay Betting experiment to see if we can produce a profit come March. The idea is simple- there is no minimum number of bets we are looking to place, we simply only lay the horses we think might have a difficult time winning. Last year I ran it on a website, but this time I will look to record it all on the not606 forum, as long as Ron and the rest of you guys are happy to have it? I'll be posting fairly regularly, so it will be prominent on the board but if Ron is willing to make it a Sticky, that would be great. The rules I stick to are clear and must not be broken. I never ever lay a horse bigger than a price of 4/1. Ever. So for every £1 of a backers stake I look to win, my liability can never be bigger than 4x that stake. This means that for every 20 lay bets I have, I can afford a maximum of 4 losing lay bets (e.g, 16 successful lay bets would leave me +16 [to a level £1 stake], and the 4 losers with 4/1 liability would cost me -16, leaving me break even after 20 bets). That means that if we were constantly laying horses at 4/1, we would need above an 80% success rate to make a profit. However, the Ace up the sleeve is that the average price of a horse I lay is much less than 4/1. For example, from the last 15 lay bets I did last year, these are the prices I laid just flicking through the list: Evens 4/5 4/1 6/4 11/10 6/5 6/5 4/1 11/4 2/1 3/1 11/10 evens 11/10 6/5 The average price there = 1.78/1 All of a sudden the likelihood is over time, if I was to operate an 80% success rate at this average price, I would be +2.22 (level £1 backers stake) for every 5 bets I make, so a return on income of about 45% profit. The golden target is to have a 90% success rate because then you would an excellent return on income. So that is the challenge- to operate at a 90% success rate if possible, and a minimum of 80% success. Last years figures were 27 lay bets 22 successful Profit/Loss: +£12.55 operating at a 78.6% strike rate. So that remains roughly in line with what I said above- (+12 from 27 bets is indeed close to a 45% profit) . If you work it out also, if I had 22 wins, which gives me +22 profit for a level £1 backers stake, to end up on £12.55 profit means the 5 losing bets averaged out as just under 2/1, again pretty nicely in line with the 1.78 average I stated from the 15 bets I made. http://betfairlayking.weebly.com/index.html The crucial bit? Keep your stakes the SAME. The minute you up your liability it only takes one losing lay bet to ruin a lot of good work. It's not mega bucks, it's not conventional to choose losers. But I'd like to think it might have a steady small profit throughout the winter. Which is more than I would have by backing them! It could go wrong, it only takes a bad run, but I'm hoping this shows how the odds are stacked in the bookies favour and it will be interesting to see the figures come March, after Cheltenham.
First bet to kick things off: 2.30 FolkestoneColourist (Laid at 1.92/1) STARLIGHT ANGEL ran a blinder in equally testing conditions as todays when chasing home the very smart (and I mean, potentially Group Class) JILLNEXTDOOR at Ffos Las last time and that was excellent form. This horse finished 3L in front of colourist at Sandown earlier in the year on soft ground and whilst Starlight Angel had the benefit of experience that day, her form stacks up really nicely. She was 2nd on debut at Chester, with winning and placed form off 78 and 82 since, and shaped well numerous times since, often suggesting a step up in trip is required. The soft ground will negate that today and I think Dutch Art colts prefer it quicke so that goes against Colourist IMO. SECRETORI was only 5L behind the progressive RONALIDINHO at KEmpton last time and could yet be anything, certainly in a race of this standard. He must at least be in there pitching if handling the soft ground and he is another who will enjoy the emphasis on stamina today. MICHAELS SONG the pace angle and could surprise by dictating here, especially with Mich Channon having a form line view on Starlight Angel, having beaten her with Jillnextdoor last time out. ce angl s often key in 4 runner races and Sam Hitchcott is adept at those tactics.
I will follow closely in case you lay an AppraiseForm selection you had an excellent ratio last year. Good Luck.
I started today laying backers £5 stake. So my liability is 5 x whatever the odds of the horse are. Obviously at 1.9/1 my liability was just over £9. I'm not a big player whatsoever. But I'm in it for long-term steady profit so hopefully we will build up over time. £10 starts to get tricky because you can have a liability of upto £40 on my rules and thats a little more concerning to the working man like myself! Only way to do that is if you build up an extremely, extremely good profit bank.
I'd be at no more than £5 either toppy! I'm no big player in the game! Will be following mate, and let's hope we get some winn.....losers!
3.40 Goodwood: Ektihaam (Laid at 1.57/1) This is a marginal call but I think when you factor in the fact I am laying at 6/4, I think there is enough juice in that lay price to take on this favourite. Visually he has been the most impressive horse of this field. He travelled very well and finished well in the Dante when 2nd behind Bonfire- form that in normal circumstances would be good enough to take this. However, the form of his wins simply has to be called into question. Bonfire has done absolutely nothing for the form, Ernest Hemingway went off like a scalded cat and has not been sighted since, Fencing has form that ties in with Camelot- very moderate form again, and all of a sudden one has to question whether Ektihaam is genuinely a 113 rated animal. He beat Wrotham Heath prior to the Dante 2nd but thats a bridle horse if ever I have seen one. The opposition here is also decent. Pisco Sour has a similar profile to Ektihaam- good solid run in the Dante, decent effort in the Derby, and has also won at Group 3 level. Should there really be such a big difference in the price? VOODOO PRINCE travelled as well as I have seen him travel in his career in soft ground last time out and he might be the progressive angle today, despite the bit to find on the figures. ROCKINANTE prefers a bit of cut according to the Hannons and might show improved form today. You have to factor in the break too- there is a chance of some rustyness and Goodwood does not suit everyone either. At Goodwood you want a prominent sit and I think Ektihaam is a hold up horse, so there is every chance that Primevere and Pisco Sour could quicken the tempo up 3f out and steal the race. Questioning is a very dangerous animal on soft ground too- write him off at your peril. I just think the 100 day+ absence, the doubts about the form, the unknown about the track, makes this a much more difficult test than a 6/4 price suggests, and have taken it on. There is every chance he could hose up, but I think the logic lies within the formbook.
Good call TC .. I can't see the fav getting up today ... I'll be laying it as well ...I think Pisco Sour could be the spoiler here ... good luck mate !
Good luck Toppy i'm gonna go on to me Betfair account and lay this one aswell. I have tried laying horses last year and made a couple of hundred quid in only a couple of days but then got carried away and soon lost it. I keep saying to myself to do what you are doing especially if you or anyone else can remember a post about 18 months or so ago on the old forum about laying horses on the lines of: Start off with £100 and lay a 50/1 horse every day for a year and if succesful you would have a return of £100,000. Anyone remember that?
Well done there Toppy, had a fair few pennies on Primevere squeeky bum time last few yards, brilliant ride from Doyle made it so Ektihaam would have had to go round him to win
Etikhamm tried to get back up ... but failed . .Pisco Sour a big diappointment for me ... but at least the lay came in ! well done TC
Cheers lads. Early days- this will be running throughout the winter so its over time that we will know more. Good to get the first two in the bank though.
Have had to really think about this one and decided to wait until we got some morning prices. 3.40 Newmarket: Havana Gold (Laid at 0.91/1) (roughly 5/6 or 10/11) Firstly, the horse is a rightful favourite. Absolutely no question. The question I am interested in however, is should it be odds on? It won a listed event last time but I think in truth listed looks round about the level the horse is at. Hannon says it would appreciate a little bit of cut so it will be interesting to see how the ground rides in the opener. I thought it struggled to pick up when last sighted on softish ground at Ascot and I'm not convinced the step back down to 7f is ideal either, with Teofolio colts tending to enjoy a good battle and it ran well over the 1m last time out. I actually really like the stablemate GLEAN, who was extremely impressive on debut, pulling clear with INTIMIDATE of Jeremy Nosedas, with daylight 3rd. They powered clear, and Glean was on the bridle for a long way and then quickened impressively for me. He was then beaten a neck by Godolphins CAP O' RUSHES in a 3 runner conditions event at Salisbury. Cap O'Rushes won his Kempton maiden by no fewer than 8 lengths and frankly as a physical specimen for a 2 year old he looks magnificent. He looks like the male version of Certify. He was able to dictate from the front and stays on very strongly so the fact Glean was so keen yet still only beaten a neck is very promising and a truer pace will really help today. I think that form with Cap O' Rushes will prove to be very, very useful. Ebn Arab travelled as well into the race as anything when beaten 5L by Dundonnell, with Steeler and Alfonso De Sousa just in front. He could still be a massive player here if he sees out the trip better and he is another for whom a truer pace will really help in a bigger field. That form is rock solid, and I asked myself the question would Havana Gold have faired any differently in that race? I couldn't see him troubling Dundonnell and therefore I dopn't think there ought to be as much between Ebn Arab and Havana Gold as the market suggests. I think fairer prices would be 9/4 and 7/2 rather than 4/5 and 9/2. I cannot discount Canary Row, who twice followed Dawn Approach for minor honours and will be better for its run after a break, and the Irish don't head to HQ for nothing. Proven with cut, so if it rides slow today he will be in there pitching.
