After our inability to hold on for the draw on Boxing Day, I got to thinking about the last minute goal. I've had an impression that we seem to lose lots at the death so decided to do some number crunching. I've compared us to Burnley which seemed a reasonable team since they have shadowed us with promotion to play in the EPL in 12/13 and accompanied us down, up and now down again. I've only looked at league games. I checked the losses by a one goal margin and the score draws and I counted a last minute goal as anything after (and including) 85 minutes. I looked at 12/13 and the following two seasons. I got the figures from the match report off each team's official site and there was a problem there in that a couple of reports from each team's site did not give the stat but only a couple so not a huge problem. Over the three seasons, QPR conceded a goal on or after the 85 minutes 9 times. This led to 3 draws and 6 losses. Of these games the memorable / infamous ones for me were a) Maloney's goal on 7.4.13 that just about killed any chance of PL survival. There was double bitterness there since it came after Remy's screamer and we were down to 10 men.; Caulker's OG on 19.10.14 that gave Liverpool that game; Bony's last gasp equaliser on 1.1.15 because I so wanted to beat the Swans and losing away to Hull in Feb 15 which, rather like the Wigan draw, seemed to seal our relegation fate. Burnley have seen a goal on, or after, 85 minutes in 19 of the games over those three seasons. One big difference is that of those 19, Burnley scored on 4 occasions to snatch a draw. We did not do that (subject to the limitations of this analysis I've already outlined) at all and neither team scored late to snatch a win. We have done that this season - Reading being the most recent example. Of the 15 remaining Burnley games, 10 led to draws and 5 losses. Of the 4 QPR draws, we drew all of them from winning positions representing 8 points dropped. Those 8 points would have made us level on points with Villa at the end of the season but still relegated on goal difference alone. By contrast, Burnley drew in 7 games while they were winning, before the late goal, representing 14 dropped points which would have seen them comfortably survive last season with 47 points. Of course it is all water under the bridge but it is another thing that Jimmy Floyd has to sort out. Minimise the late goals against us. It would be interesting to repeat the exercise to include other lower EPL / upper SBC teams but that would be rather time consuming unless anyone can find a stats page that gives the information without doing it manually. Not an unpleasant way to wile away a couple of holiday hours thinking about The Mighty Hoops. I hope you've all had a pleasant and relaxing Christmas and do wish you all a healthy and blessed 2016.
**** me, RTID, you need to chill out! Lot of what ifs in there! On a serious note, some decent research that JFH should pay attention to - concentration for the full 90mins pays dividends. When I was a kid Liverpool were infamous for scraping points in the last minutes of games through their superior fitness and determination - if only our team could be so dedicated.
Lol and thanks. Agree that 'what ifs' are useless unless we learn lessons for the future. You make a fair point though about all the variables.
So we did better than Burnley RTID if I follow you? Thanks! Focus on fitness and concentration the full 9X minute's should help.
I had actually thought we gave up a lot more late goals than your analysis shows - and yes, I do remember us doing it to Reading (and famously to Derby though of course that was not a league game). Thanks for doing the numbers
Yes, that was the surprise to me. Every minute changes the stats of course. I think I recall from our last season in the PL that if our games had been stopped at 75" we would have been comfortably safe. The reason I chose 85" is because those last minute goals can rip the sporting heart out of both fans and team. Having read maple's comment, I realise I've left out Bobby's goal though I did say I only checked league games. I'm not sure if the playoffs count as a league game or not.
I remember that stat too...and checking it at the time and it was correct. All of last season, we gave away late goals. I would pray we didn't score too early ourselves as we could never hold a lead...... I think it is the single most important thing Jimmy needs to sort out....concentration and closing out a game.... Arry used to bring on Henry, especially in 2014 this worked ok......but Colins Championship team could win or draw boring. Jimmy will sort it out....I'm sure.
maybe we need a "Ray Wilkins player". Someone that could pass sideways all day long, and pass to someone in the same coloured shirt. At least we could protect a lead or hold onto a point.
Yep, 86 minutes so qualifies for my hall of shame / stupidity and professional ineptitude. What on earth is wrong with our beloved club? David McIntyre calls it a 'serious malaise'. Very regrettable that JFH has not got his first win yet.
Hey ho. Very, very VERY regrettably, another to add to the list. What is it about 85 minutes onward? Having just seen the goal, it's clearly a goalie error which the kid will learn from. Have to say, I think Green would have dealt with that.
Are we being punished for beating derby at the death, some may say unfairly, with death by a thousand last minute goals?
