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Last 15 games - how many points will we get?

Discussion in 'Bristol Rovers' started by Captain Jack Sparrow, Feb 11, 2019.

  1. Captain Jack Sparrow

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    2 questions for you to answer at the bottom.

    With it extremely close at the bottom of L1, will we manage to survive? We have goal difference on our side for once when compared to other teams struggling along with us. And we know what its like to get relegated on goal difference!

    We have 15 league games left: 7 home and 8 away. That's 45 points available. Here is the fixture list that's left for us to play...

    Portsmouth away (currently 3rd)
    Sunderland home (currently 4th)
    Blackpool home (currently 8th)
    Scunthorpe away (currently 13th)
    Gillingham away (currently 21st)
    Charlton home (currently 5th)
    Plymouth away (currently 15th)
    Doncaster away (currently 6th)
    Luton home (currently 1st)
    Coventry away (currently 11th)
    Bradford home (currently 23rd)
    Wimbledon away (currently 24th)
    Rochdale home (currently 18th)
    Fleetwood away (currently 9th)
    Barnsley home (currently 2nd)

    Assessing these fixtures, we still have to face the current teams in the top 6. In fact, we still have to face 8 of the top 9 teams in the league. It will be very tough to pick up wins in these games. Any points won in these games are a bonus to me. That means we have 7 games where we really have to go for it - Scunthorpe, Gillingham, Plymouth, Coventry, Bradford, Wimbledon and Rochdale. And out of those 7 games, 5 are away from home!!!! All of a sudden, after assessing this, I really don't feel too confident about our chances of survival.

    So I have added up the points that I feel we will collect from these 15 games and I think we will manage 17 points from a maximum 45 points available. 17 points will put us on exactly 50 points. Looking at the last 5 seasons in L1, 50 points will be extremely close to make or break.

    17/18 season, 51 points needed to survive.
    16/17 season, 50 points needed to survive.
    15/16 season, 47 points needed to survive.
    14/15 season, 51 points needed to survive.
    13/14 season, 48 points needed to survive.

    If I am right or very close to being right, then it could very well go all the way to the last couple of games. That makes the Bradford (23rd), Wimbledon (24th) and Rochdale (18th), which are the 42nd, 43rd and 44th games of the season, VERY important and massive MUST win games for us. Lose these 6 pointers and I hate to think where we will be!

    How many points do you think we will get from these remaining 15 games??
    And will that be enough to survive??
     
    #1
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  2. old timer

    old timer Well-Known Member

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    I think we stay in this division in about 18th / 19th place.
    I further believe that in the Summer GC will have a clearout and some of the present squad will be seen no more in the Blue and White quarters an next season we will go towards the playoff positions
     
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  3. Delsy

    Delsy Active Member

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    So, 52 points has to be the target and then anything after that is gravy. What do we currently have ? 33 that’s 19 points from the remaining fifteen games if we are to survive and compete again in this league next term.
    Looking at the list I can only see four fixtures that I would remotely suggest that we could attain maximum points, those being, Gillingham, Plymouth , Bradford and Wimbledon , if those come to pass then we are going to need another seven points from the remaining eleven games, sounds simple doesn’t it and we are not going to lose all of those eleven games so points will be picked up, it’s just will there be enough of them to avoid a return to the basement league? Personally I think it is going to be a tough ask and I am preparing for a white knuckle ride that could go all the way to the last fixture at home to the tykes. If we stay up then I will be elated, if we drop then obviously I will be very disappointed but will accept it as our form over the season hasn’t been great, especially at home where you need to win to survive and we just haven’t done enough of that this time around.
    If we do stay up then I am with O T in as much as I think there needs to be a clear out but it just worries me a tad as to who we may get in as replacements as I honestly believe that the current management of the club lacks the skills in recruiting and selling BRFC to any prospective players, and then of course there’s the ground ! and I am not even going to start on that..............UTG
     
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  4. GreatWesternGas

    GreatWesternGas Well-Known Member

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    Sadly we are in the position of needing favourable results from elsewhere this season to ease our pain and suffering somewhat, and give us some hope of avoiding the drop. Walsall losing at home to Wimbledon tonight could do us a favour by the end of the season, although to capitalise, we still need to pick up points, and its hard to see where they're going to come from, at the moment. I would agree with CJH about us gaining a maximum of 17 points from now on, and its a distinct possibility that this may not be enough. The thing to hang on to at the moment is that there are currently 5 teams below us that would gladly swap positions with us, and if we can keep things like that, we will scrape through. Its never good to have to rely on other results but I think that's probably our best chance of staying up, to be honest. For once, our goal difference could be crucial in our favour .
     
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  5. Delsy

    Delsy Active Member

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    Let's start a new comp' " Guess the last Fifteen Fixtures Points Tally "........Here Goes nothing...

    Portsmouth away (currently 3rd) ....Nil points :emoticon-0106-cryin
    Sunderland home (currently 4th)......Nil Points:emoticon-0107-sweat
    Blackpool home (currently 8th).........1 Point :emoticon-0101-sadsm
    Scunthorpe away (currently 13th).....1 Point :emoticon-0101-sadsm
    Gillingham away (currently 21st).......3 Points <party>
    Charlton home (currently 5th)............1 Point :emoticon-0101-sadsm
    Plymouth away (currently 15th).........3 Points <party>
    Doncaster away (currently 6th)..........Nil Points :emoticon-0107-sweat
    Luton home (currently 1st).................Nil Points :emoticon-0107-sweat
    Coventry away (currently 11th)...........1 Point :emoticon-0101-sadsm
    Bradford home (currently 23rd)...........3 Points <party>
    Wimbledon away (currently 24th)........3 Points <party>
    Rochdale home (currently 18th)..........1 Point :emoticon-0101-sadsm
    Fleetwood away (currently 9th)............Nil Points :emoticon-0107-sweat
    Barnsley home (currently 2nd).............1 Point :emoticon-0101-sadsm

    Total Points Gained = 18 coupled with what we already have { 33 } = 51 Points, buckle up peeps, it's going to be a hell of a ride.
     
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  6. Gastronomic

    Gastronomic Well-Known Member

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    I think we can get 23 points with a fair wind. Our form's really good and I think we could well take a few points off the likes of Pompey and Sunderland on a good day. It's going to be a bit of a white knuckle ride, but I think we'll stay up and be in good shape for next season.In some ways it makes things a bit more interesting than sitting in mid table. I hope we stay up, and I reckon we will.
     
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  7. Gastronomic

    Gastronomic Well-Known Member

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    We're 6th in the form table. Pompey are 15th, for example. I'm not too worried.
     
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  8. Delsy

    Delsy Active Member

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    Great optimism Gastro but we never seem to be able to beat the top sides when it matters and we have got a few to face up to over the remaining weeks of this season.
     
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  9. Captain Jack Sparrow

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    Following Delsy's predictions.... here are mine <ok>

    Portsmouth away (currently 3rd) 0 points (we never do well here)
    Sunderland home (currently 4th) 0 points
    Blackpool home (currently 8th) 1 point
    Scunthorpe away (currently 13th) 1 points
    Gillingham away (currently 21st) 3 point
    Charlton home (currently 5th) 0 points
    Plymouth away (currently 15th) 3 points
    Doncaster away (currently 6th) 0 points
    Luton home (currently 1st) 0 points
    Coventry away (currently 11th) 1 point
    Bradford home (currently 23rd) 3 points
    Wimbledon away (currently 24th) 1 point
    Rochdale home (currently 18th) 3 points
    Fleetwood away (currently 9th) 1 points
    Barnsley home (currently 2nd) 0 points

    Total 17 points. So we will end on 50 points. We will need results elsewhere to go our way as I don't think 50 will be enough.
     
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  10. Gastronomic

    Gastronomic Well-Known Member

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    Let's see. I thinks GC has got the lads in a good place.
     
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  11. old timer

    old timer Well-Known Member

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    How costly could that penalty miss be
     
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  12. Captain Jack Sparrow

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    One of the worse pens I have seen. I watched the game on ifollow and it was very bad. If you double the height of the the cross bar, it still would have gone over! It was that bad!

    But what a performance tonight from everyone.
     
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  13. old timer

    old timer Well-Known Member

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    I think most would have settled for a point tonight
     
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  14. Gastronomic

    Gastronomic Well-Known Member

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    Brilliant result. JCH had a great game apart from the howler and he seems to have made a big difference. We don't need to fear anyone now.
     
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  15. Chris-Gashead

    Chris-Gashead Well-Known Member

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    It will be very tight. We are going to struggle to stay up. We need about 18 points and I see us getting around 15-18 points
     
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  16. Delsy

    Delsy Active Member

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    Barnsley at home could be a real nail biter, I might still be out in Oz by then............with a bit of luck !
     
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  17. old timer

    old timer Well-Known Member

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    We have one more point than most of us thought we would have had after the last 2 games, didn't think we were much worse than Sunderland today. Wouldn't mind signing Flanagan their CH today quick mobile and he could head a ball, can't see Sunderland getting automatic promotion on todays performance
     
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  18. Delsy

    Delsy Active Member

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    Should of grabbed him when he was out on loan at Kettering but our club don’t seem to have the network to spot these type of players.
    Thought Sunderland didn’t get out of second gear yesterday which sadly didn’t say much for our mob at home once again.
     
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  19. old timer

    old timer Well-Known Member

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    Chatting to some of their supporters on the bus home from the match and they think their centre backs are the weak links in the team, but they did agree that it was a poor match Griggs and Wyke are also not flavour of the month with them.
    I thought that Griggs looked very disinterested in the proceedings but Wyke seemed to wake them up a bit as did Max Power when he came on
     
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  20. Captain Jack Sparrow

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    Delsy, we both predicted 2 defeats against Pompey and Sunderland. We are 1 point better off than what we predicted so far.

    If you are right with your other predictions, then you will have us on 52 points come the end. If I am right, we will end on 51 points. Either way, its going to be squeaky bum time. We need some wins asap to take the pressure off the club, the team and us fans!
     
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