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Lansdown - Running Out of the Gravy...£££

Discussion in 'Bristol City' started by wizered, Dec 15, 2021.

  1. wizered

    wizered Ol' Mucker
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    The startling figures that outline Bristol City's strength but reveal an uncomfortable truth
    The Robins are indebted to their owner after a decade in which they've strived for Premier League football but fallen short, however that also illuminates a nagging concern

    Steve Lansdown will take his place in the stand that bears his name on Saturday before Bristol City's penultimate home Championship fixture of 2021 and perhaps allow himself a moment to survey what's directly in front of him, and how it might look beyond that.

    It's been another challenging 12 months for Bristol City, as it has been for most football clubs, sporting institutions and private companies; if 2020 was about damage limitation, 2021 was the year when the reality of those measures hit.

    City's accounts will shortly be published and they will make for grim reading. Lansdown himself called it in April when he forecast that the number will be "horrific" and the particularly nasty jump scare shouldn't be too far away. Maybe even bringing some sense of closure with it all out in the open.

    Cynics may cite the timing as being convenient given the proximity to the January transfer window as many still view those 31 days as a time for opportunity and City's Achilles heel under Lansdown over the years where the club has failed to adequately invest at a key time of the season and then paid the price for their frugality.

    Irrespective of the "big, bad number" that will emerge in the loss column when the accounts are made public, the January window isn't likely to generate much more activity than the summer one for most Championship clubs.

    All are fighting the same fight at City and unless a particularly wealthy Premier League club comes calling (Newcastle United being the prime example) for the best talent, few with have any disposal income to spend.

    City's accounts will therefore reveal several millions reasons why the club can't be signing that prime No9 or missing man in midfield, unless of course players can be moved on and wages can be saved. But then we're back to the same situation as in the summer, in a window when there's even less movement.

    The numbers will also, of course, detail an irrefutable fact - Bristol City cannot currently survive without the investment of the Lansdowns. The governance, decision-making, strategy, public relations or identity of the club may not always be to your liking, but their presence and commitment to the cause is unquestionable.

    This was outlined in clear terms on Monday night when football finance expert Swiss Ramble detailed a number of charts outlining the financial state of the top 44 clubs in the 2019/20 season (when the most recent set of accounts were published across the board) over the last decade.

    What stood out loud and clear for Bristol City was the alarming wages to turnover ratio - a mammoth 122 per cent, third overall and only exceeded by Brentford (156 per cent) and Nottingham Forest (144 per cent); the volume of investment made by Lansdown in covering losses - £169m, 12th overall of all UK owners; and the amount generated in transfer sales - £83m, 22nd overall.

    The first aspect has many layers to it: the sheer financial lunacy of trying to get to the Premier League on Championship income. But then again just one season in the top-flight can make all the difference (just in case you were wondering why Lansdown is so against parachute payments). The fact City have got to this point without actually achieving it, which prompts the question has it all been worth it? And has the money been spent wisely? But most of all it should probably be greeted by a sizeable OMG.

    To have reached a point where you're spending 122 per cent of your income on a project that isn't achieving your necessary objectives, let alone getting that close to them isn't particularly particularly acute business acumen, never mind the fact a financial services billionaire is piloting the ship.

    Football does that to people, though. Peter Ridsdale's justification that "we lived the dream", as a portent for Leeds United's mass and totally unsustainable overspending in the early 2000s, based on loans against future Champions League earnings, still rings true to some extent across most of professional football (but still the Premier League tell us we don't need an independent regulator).

    The overall period of 10 years is a little questionable because each clubs has their own contextual backdrop to their financial situation; in City's case, very roughly speaking, Lansdown tried to put a lid on wages and spending in the early to mid-part of the decade, relegation allowed for a slight reset following by a rise but he wasn't particularly taken by Steve Cotterill's ambitious but expensive vision for success but was Lee Johnson's supposed more nuanced and patience approach, through the prism of Mark Ashton as CEO.

    However, rolling with that model and the idea that Johnson would eventually get City to the Premier League (Ashton's declaration in 2019, "if we keep progressing the way we are, ultimately we’ll be promoted, but I can’t tell you when" was more than likely also conveyed and believed by the board), has in-part got the Robins to this point.

    As the concept of progress increased - and in league position City did go from 18th to 17th, 11th and 8th - so too did the expense in trying to keep it all moving vertically, with wages rising in conjunction from £17.4m to £20.9m to £27.2m and then £30.6m.

    Looking at those charts should cause a shudder because for all that money City very much remain a Championship club and, in many ways, have gone backwards, but, by the same token, they have mostly been a relatively stable one in terms of league status and given the club's history post 1980, perhaps that does constitute some degree of success. Certainly Lansdown would see it that way, albeit with a slight grimace that silverware has been all too fleeting.

    Reasons for the under-performance, which many classify it as, are too numerous to mention and have been poured over many times before and aren't quite relevant to this particular piece, bar the fact that for all the failures in recruitment, coaching decisions and contracts, ultimately it's all been signed off by the man at the top.

    But without that man at the top, City simply wouldn't be functioning as a living, breathing Championship-competing entity.

    That, though, also causes problems in itself because when Lansdown campaigns for salary caps and against parachute payments, it's a very honourable and noble cause and ultimately you're on his side, but there's another aspect to it that's often overlooked - is it really because he's grown increasingly tired and weary of playing the game that everyone is else is playing?

    In the 2018/18 financial year, City's commercial, broadcast and matchday revenues of £30.3m would have been fourth overall in the Championship, if not for parachute payments used many of their rivals which plunged them down to 10th - not something that can sit easy with Lansdown.

    The Wild West
    The rugby comparisons are mostly used as a stick to beat him with but they are relevant in this sense because at least in the Premiership you broadly know how much everything is going to cost from one season to the next, bar a few incremental changes, and all the clubs are spending the same amount of money (unless you're Saracens and bending the system, of course).

    It's regimented, organised (to a point) and plannable to a more straightforward degree. Football remains the Wild West with frequent changes of ownership and management leading to new strategies in spending, coupled with the insane TV money in the Premier League that sort of trickles down but only to a point, with the real cascade being greed, envy and a lust to be a part of it. Hence the widespread gamble then conducted by Championship clubs.

    Lansdown has overseen five years now of gradual increase in investment (wages have now doubled from when City were promoted) but the Robins have plateaued, probably even regressed. What does that then do to the psyche of the man putting the money in?

    Factor in the pandemic and the various millions of losses incurred with no revenue and it hasn't been much fun bankrolling the club, whatever your place in the Sunday Times Rich List.

    Covid-19 has also sucked City dry of one of their primary drivers of revenue and that is player sales. The club achieved a pre-tax profit of £11m for the first time under his ownership in 2018/19 - a "milestone moment" Lansdown heralded it - but that was essentially the result of the sales of Bobby Reid, Joe Bryan, Aden Flint and others totalling £38m.

    Since Josh Brownhill's departure to Burnley in January 2020 (almost two years ago, folks), City's biggest sale was the knockdown fee of just over £2m agreed with Nimes for Niclas Eliasson amid his expiring contract.

    A major mechanism Lansdown had to not just ever so slightly reduce his own spending but also proved a source of pride and achievement in itself - Lloyd Kelly, Brownhill, Joe Bryan, Bobby Reid, these were all affirmations of his project - has also now disappeared, unlikely to return for at least another six months, at best.

    He's bound by his ownership, and his loyalty and his own moral code in what is right for Bristol City, but it can't be a particularly pleasurable experience and each duff result and performance must only hurt that little bit more than the previous one.

    It is therefore no wonder that Lansdown is seeking outside investment, which could be much more than just a stake in City. Indeed, an article in The Athletic on the state of Championship club ownership last month detailed how the, "search for help, and potentially a full takeover, is underway" at City.

    It's been apparent that while City were once considered unpurchaseable by the hoards of investors and consortiums that lurk in the shadows of football looking to buy clubs, that is not the case now. And the above figures probably have a large part to do with it.

    How far we are from the end of the Lansdown era is impossible to ascertain but the idea of external succession is now there, whereas perhaps before it was never properly considered. That in itself prompts a wave of questions and assessments and whatnot, but in returning to the overarching theme, also surely a concern.

    If a benevolent owner like Lansdown (and whatever your personal gripes and moans with micro elements of the running of the club, surely everyone appreciate the job he's done to some degree) can't achieve Premier League football in this landscape, having taken them to the ceiling of eighth by accumulating a £30m+ wage bill and unsustainable outlay, who can and, maybe more importantly, who will want to with the same zeal and sense of responsibility?

    That may seem a little defeatist because Bristol City are a fantastic opportunity for someone to take the infrastructure that Lansdown has rebuilt and/or created and harness a considerable fanbase by funding a upwardly mobile team. But as the last 10 years have shown us, the sheer amount of money required just to maintain a reputable level of competitiveness in England's second tier, can be a bit of a thankless task.
    https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/startling-figures-outline-bristol-citys-6351071
     
    #1
  2. wizered

    wizered Ol' Mucker
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    'However, rolling with that model and the idea that Johnson would eventually get City to the Premier League (Ashton's declaration in 2019, "if we keep progressing the way we are, ultimately we’ll be promoted, but I can’t tell you when" was more than likely also conveyed and believed by the board), has in-part got the Robins to this point.

    As the concept of progress increased - and in league position City did go from 18th to 17th, 11th and 8th - so too did the expense in trying to keep it all moving vertically, with wages rising in conjunction from £17.4m to £20.9m to £27.2m and then £30.6m.'


    Sorry to resurrect old subjects and our financial state but......
    ......and there is the proof in black and white, the MA & LJ period our gains were 10 places ove 4.5 years and millions spent on wages at what cost?
     
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    Last edited: Dec 15, 2021
  3. Red Robin

    Red Robin Well-Known Member

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    There was and still is wasted millions by the club-bad signings-bad appointments in the running off the football club.

    Unfortunately that is down to the people at the very top.

    We are a million miles away from the premiership- and a set up on the Brentford scale -who are much much smaller club and considerably smaller fan base.
    The potential of Bristol City FC is huge just needs tapping into it.
     
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  4. bcfcredandwhite

    bcfcredandwhite Well-Known Member

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    Both sides of the debate are there in this same article Wiz - in the next paragraph:

    'Looking at those charts should cause a shudder because for all that money City very much remain a Championship club and, in many ways, have gone backwards, but, by the same token, they have mostly been a relatively stable one in terms of league status and given the club's history post 1980, perhaps that does constitute some degree of success. Certainly Lansdown would see it that way, albeit with a slight grimace that silverware has been all too fleeting.'

    Whether we view our continuing Championship status as a success, or not achieving Premiership football a failure, the financial situation is unquestionably dire - mostly due to wages. We have some high earners at our club who don't put in a shift and I think we will have to face it that they will not want to move on.
    I hope and pray that Mark Ashton will take Palmer and his wages to Ipswich - as per the rumours on OTIB........
     
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  5. Angelicnumber16

    Angelicnumber16 Well-Known Member

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    City's Achilles heel under Lansdown over the years where the club has failed to adequately invest at a key time of the season and then paid the price for their frugality.

    Never were truer words written
    It could all have been so very different, and the fact remains that we may never get as good a chance again as the ones we wasted. Especially in 2008.
     
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  6. wizered

    wizered Ol' Mucker
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    Quite right, I never highlighted this bit as well.

    'Reasons for the under-performance, which many classify it as, are too numerous to mention and have been poured over many times before and aren't quite relevant to this particular piece, bar the fact that for all the failures in recruitment, coaching decisions and contracts, ultimately it's all been signed off by the man at the top.'
     
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  7. oneforthebristolcity

    oneforthebristolcity Well-Known Member

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    That's what happens when taking away our best players that were just beginning to gel and replacing with inferior stock!! It doesn't work..
     
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  8. bcfcredandwhite

    bcfcredandwhite Well-Known Member

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    ... inferior and expensive!!
     
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  9. Red Robin

    Red Robin Well-Known Member

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    It is the first time in my 50 years+ following city that we have appointed a proven manager-Now I know that does not guarantee success in any way. But finally we have a manager that is recognised in football and can bring in quality players.

    We must let Nige do his stuff-bring his players in and get the football club firing at the right end of the championship.

    Next year is tough-looking at the sides that potentially are coming down.

    SL has given so much to Bristol and Bristol City football club but he has made some absolute howlers as well.
     
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  10. wizered

    wizered Ol' Mucker
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    'The club achieved a pre-tax profit of £11m for the first time under his ownership in 2018/19 - a "milestone moment" Lansdown heralded it - but that was essentially the result of the sales of Bobby Reid, Joe Bryan, Aden Flint and others totalling £38m.'

    Amazing how these facts are jumping out, the 3 main players named are all pre MA signings or development, that character has a lot to answer for.

     
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  11. bcfcredandwhite

    bcfcredandwhite Well-Known Member

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    We can't CHANGE the past, but we CAN learn from it's successes and failures.
    The financial landscape of football outside the Premiership bubble has also changed with Covid in that it's not easy to buy or sell players any more and clubs like us find ourselves stuck with players on high wages that nobody wants to sign. Palmer is the glaring example - he's not a TERRIBLE player and he is able to do a job at this level, but his wages make him unsignable, which grates with us, because he's not delivering value for money and it looks like we're stuck with him whilst he winds down his contract.

    For me, one of the biggest failures has been recruitment and sales. As 1for mentioned anyone who was any good got sold - and not replaced. It looks as if this policy has stopped - for now at least. Whether that's because Ashton has gone, or whether it's simply that the market is flat due to the current climate remains to be seen and as soon as it picks up we can kiss goodbye to our better players again.

    There is a warning in this article aimed at people who may be thinking that we are going to be active in the January window - we AREN'T.

    The reality is;
    - We can't sell the expensive players we are carrying, because they are too expensive for anyone to take on
    - We can't buy anyone else until we shift the above

    Basically it ain't gonna happen. RR take note.
     
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  12. RedorDead

    RedorDead Well-Known Member

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    He will not take note. he thinks that we can buy anyone with Lansdowns money.
    He’s on about the last 50 years on having the most proven manager (like Holloway done it once) and forgetting that an unknown manager took us to the old first division.
     
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  13. bcfcredandwhite

    bcfcredandwhite Well-Known Member

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    True - it was the FIRST time. Credit to LJ for turning them into a profit - particularly Reid who hardly featured before under previous incumbents.....
     
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  14. RedorDead

    RedorDead Well-Known Member

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    And if they bought someone for a fortune and it didn’t work. What would the excuse be then?
    Remember it was the manager at the time who gave SL the targets, for all we know it’s GJ’s issue not SL’s. But hey let’s not let things get in your way for your dislike of SL.
     
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  15. Angelicnumber16

    Angelicnumber16 Well-Known Member

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    It's possible but who knows.

    But the excuse from whoever had we really pushed the boat and brought in enough quality to give us the best possible chance of staying the top 2 would have been, we put our money where our mouth is, gave it our best possible shot, but we fell short.

    Instead we got Dele Adebola and Nick Carle on the cheap, and that really didn't work, and it's been ski Sunday (downhill fast) to some degree ever since.
     
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  16. bcfcredandwhite

    bcfcredandwhite Well-Known Member

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    We HAVE tried 'proven' managers before (assuming that 'proven' means they have attained Premiership football at a previous club).
    In the past 50 years we have had Copout, who did it with Reading - and Danny Wilson - who was a 'proven' manager with Barnsley - and neither of them worked out for us.

    Pearson is actually our 3rd 'proven' (and most expensive) manager to-date. Not sure where RR was when we had the other 2......
     
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  17. bcfcredandwhite

    bcfcredandwhite Well-Known Member

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    To be fair Angelic - we got a tidy profit for Carle by conning Colin at Palarse into buying him!!
     
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  18. Red Robin

    Red Robin Well-Known Member

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    Coppell I disregard as was gone as quick as he arrived for reasons we all now about.

    Danny Wilson did okay for us but no respect ain't in NPs league.
     
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  19. RedorDead

    RedorDead Well-Known Member

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    Two players that GJ obviously named. Unless we are going to be blaming the CEO like MA in buying players the manager did not want.
     
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  20. RedorDead

    RedorDead Well-Known Member

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    Why not? What has Nige done that’s so different? And don’t say his team won the Prem title, as that was Raniaros team as he had then playing with a winning attitude and as a team.
     
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