First of all- I have had a look, and I cant find anywhere showing it not channel 4, not ATR or racing uk. Surely it must be on one of the latter . Workforce -7/4 St Nicholas Abbey- 7/4 Rewilding -11/4 Nathaniel-10/1 Midday-16/1 Seville- 16/1 Debussy- 100/1 This is a wide open race imo! All runners have a chance- Workforce was left with the all the work with half a mile to go to when coming 2nd to So You Think in the Eclipse, had stable mate Confront not folded so easily the result may have been different in the final furlong! Whatever the result this horse has real class, you dont win the Derby(some say it was a weak race, but you can only beat what is infront of you, which had Rewilding in too) & the Arc in one year without being a great G1 horse! If it carries on raining it will swing the pendulum greatly in his favour but if the ground is too hard he wont. Also I believe Ryan Moore will ride Workforce which is a huge plus! St Nicholas Abbey a very disappointing season last one as a 3year old was called a derby flop when not even turning up!, but as a 4 year complete different story. He has finally lived up to his hype. Midday looked to have him beat in the Coronation Cup- but thanks to some great riding from Ryan Moore he managed to pull back the two length lead. At chester he ran a good race (although there are queries over Aiden Obrien's tactics to ruffle the feathers of Harris Tweed) but he still won the race when crusing to a 9l lead in the final furlong and is a horse on form! And has won on any ground!!! Rewilding- Ran a disappointing race in last years derby when 3rd to Workforce and also ran poorly when favourite in the St Ledger. Has only won half his number of G1 races but the most recent was definately his greatest run to date (although it did earn Frankie a 10 day whip ban) he timed his run perfectly and won by a neck when it looked like So You Think had it wrapped up! Jockey and Stable are on form so will take a lot of beating! Nathaniel currently the 3-1 favourite for the St Ledger in September. But that race is his Number 1 target so a win in this is an added bonus! He stomped home by 5L when beating Fiorente at Royal Ascot last month. Before that run ran a credible race when second to Treasure beach at chester, he was tracking Treasure beach but never quickend and didnt really look like beating him, But as i said he is really being aimed at the St Leger. Midday Lost by 6L to Misty for me when she was odds on favourite in the Pretty Polly Stakes, She didnt run to badly in the race just couldnt find the good ground needed for her to run on. And she just stayed at one pace in the final furlong and never looked to beat her. And as said earlier looked to have St Nicholas abbey beat but he was just to classy for her on that day and will be again IF on his 4yo form Seville another horse who ran a disappointing race in the derby when 10th, just had no answer when Soumillon asked him to go and eased out with 3f to go. His run in the Irish derby however showed that it wont be long again until he wins another G1 race! He looked the winner of the race, until he tired in the closing stages and stable mate Treasure Beach passed him. And again last week ran a blinder was a front runner and lead for most of the race and tried to hang on when Meandre was closing but just didnt have enough. And i believe it will be the same story again on sunday. Debussy I dont really know to much about this horse but when 7th in the Prince of Wales he raced keenly enough and started off well tracking the leaders but rapidly weakend and just slid back through the field. So after all that-my money will be on Workforce- he will just have too much for the rest of the field and if the weather forecast is right he will be in his peak with the amount juice in the ground. But also my e/w money will be on Seville- Is getting better with every run but I think Workforce will be too much for him Good luck to you all whoever you decide to go with!!
For me this is a 2 horse race. If the ground is anything approaching firm I hope Workforce won't be risked. Assuming he gets the ground he needs he will take a lot of beating. However, SNA was clear favourite to win the Derby prior to being pulled out and, contrary to many on 606, I thought he ran a cracking Derby trial in the 2000 Gns. Distance too short, ground too fast and just under 2l behind Canford Cliffs in conditions favouring one of the best milers around. Then in his first race for almost 12 months, again over a distance too short, he finished 3rd (to the disappointment of many). He then trotted up at Chester and then, although not much room 2f out, came with a late run to beat Midday fairly comfortably in the end. Given his light 2nd season there could be more improvement and it would not surprise me at all to see him wear down Workforce in a titanic battle. I will be bitterly disappointed if one of these two don't win and fairly disappointed if the pair don't draw well clear in the final furlong. If either wins impressively we have a live Arc hope; otherwise the Arc could be going to France.
I fancy Seville to be up their in the mix unless in which it is a hardly fought race and I and every1 else expects it to be his stamina again will be found wanting
Nathaniel for me.You certainly don't supplement a horse for £75,000 and use the KG as a prep race for the St Leger,if you arent serious about winning this race.A big improver. SNA is a horrible price if you compare his price to Middays who he struggled to beat.
Midday won't run if Workforce does, she will go to the Nassau Stakes. I think this race is one of those that you can take an opinion in and I would be of the opinion that SNA has more to prove than the rest and therefore is a poor price when taking on two horses who have won better quality races than he has. I think SNA has benefitted from weaker opposition and I think he will be vulnerable to the pair. The problem for me is that Rewilding could have improved massively this season and I don't really know whether to take the So You Think form literally. I don't really listen to what trainers say but if AOB is right about underpreparing SYT for Ascot it might be the case that Workforce ran as well or even better than Rewilding when he went down to SYT last time. Nathaniel has a bit to prove now stepped up to this class but is certainly one not to write off here, he has done little form and this is the first time we will see the classic generation taking on its elders in the UK top Group races. I also do not see Seville turning up, but if he does I would have to suggest that whilst he is more exposed than Nathaniel their form seems very similar through that Chester run of Nathaniel. On that line he would also have a good chance. I think its a dreadfully tough race to decipher and not one I will be playing in.
The first 2 in the betting are poor prices. The form pick for this is Rewilding, he has better form than Workforce and SNA this season, my worry for him is how much did the POW take out of him. My pick though is Nathaniel, there was something very taking about the way he won at Royal Ascot, fair enough it wasn't the hottest race in the world, but only very good horses win it in the manner he did. It rained all day yesterday, so he will get his ground. All his form reads well and he seems progressive and he has to be the value bet at 10/1 The Leger is not his main target, it will be his target if he flops in this, but if he wins or goes close he will be Arc bound
I am not sure from where this piece of information hails. The last I heard connections had warned punters that the horse was no certain runner in the final Classic. Plus there is no ‘d’ in St Leger. Statistically speaking, it is more likely than not that the Arc will be won by a French horse. Personally I think it will be a filly wearing the Aga Khan’s colours. I wonder whether Midday is a seriously intended runner or is just retaining her place in the entries in case Workforce is a no-show. At 16/1 she would be a massive each-way punt. If she takes her place on Saturday, I expect that would rule her out of the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.
Woolcombe: I'm fairly sure that ATR do Ascot? Am surprised that Channel 4 are not doing it though............... If ground conditions are decent, will stick with Workforce. But, as Nassau just said, it's a really tough one this year?
May i also add that I feel it was one of John Gosden's biggest training mistakes not to run Nathaniel in the Derby, he under estimated him after he got beat at Chester, because traditionally the Chester Vase isn't the hottest of Derby trials, but in reality he was just beaten by a very good horse in Treasure Beach. Despite tipping up TB that day, directly after the race I wasn't convinced the best horse had won. Nathaniel was caught wide where as TB got a perfect trip on the rails, and Nathaniel was still green when challenging. It was a masterful ride from Ryan Moore on TB. The ground was against Nathaniel aswell
For the Midday fan club, a quick bit of Googling finds a report on the Sky Sports site quoting Teddy Grimthorpe: So hold your bets unless you are planning on backing one of the confirmed runners!
Just a thought. It seems a given to most, that Workforce isn't as good on top of the ground. I find this hard to believe. In his Derby win, At First Sight dragged the field along at a pace that guaranteed a record time. There is no way that they could run 2:31:33 unless they were on top of the ground. If the pace is hot on Saturday, he'll take some beating, even if the track is good. The on thing that won't suit the horse, is a slow tempo. AOB has a problem on his hands. Even going in mob handed, he can't afford to cart them along at a slick tempo. If it rains, the stuff hits the fan big time.
It was officially Good/Firm when Workforce won the Derby Cyc Are people hoping Nathaniel is another Harbnger? SNA for me at the moment, think he is still improving. Wouldn't take 7/4 on him though - shocking price.
Cyc.....Totally agree, on Derby day the course was like a road, there had been no rain for weeks. Personally I feel the reason they are reluctant to run on firm ground again is because they are worried for the welfare of such a valuable horse, were as before the Derby he wasn't worth alot. Despite the fact he put up a top performance Derby day, and probably would again on firm ground, maybe that race took alot out of him, hence the awful showing in last years King George, so maybe that's why they are so cautious about tackling firm ground again, though just speculating
Cyc I think SNA can go both - he can quicken off both a slow and a quick pace and he definitely gets 12F as evidenced by his victory at Epsom last time. I wouldn't be worried about tactics, however I would prefer Ryan Moore on board to one of the other clowns that AOB uses. Maybe Jamie Spencer will get the ride?
You have the cheek to refer to Heffernen and O'Donohughe as clowns, yet in the same post nominate Jamie Spencer, the irony
Not sure where Nathaniel has been quoted as having the St Leger as his No1 target! It is far from that according to the trainer and racing manager to the owner. I find it hard to believe they would stump up £75,000 to just have a run out! I believe it is the Arc that they would like to be good enough to race in.
"We will have to start thinking about the St Leger as it comes up quite quickly. He loves the ground - it would have been too quick for him at Epsom and he stays well.- John Gosden, trainer "He's a nice horse and loved theground. He stayed well and I think he and Michael Owen's horse [Brown Panther] have shown themselves as legitimate favourites for the St Leger," Gosden said. "The Voltigeur is a strong possibility and I quite like a race at Newbury [the Geoffrey Freer]. He'll have one run and then the Leger if the owners want to go there. I hope they do."
