Kauto Star or Master Minded

It looks like both Kauto Star and Master Minded will take there chance in this years King George. I think we know Ruby Walsh will choose Kauto Star, but I want to know were opinions lie on this, is Ruby giving himself the best chance of winning the race?*

Basically if you were Ruby and someone had a gun at your head, and said you must win the KG this year, would you still side with KS.*

Kauto Star and Master Minded have been 2 of the finest chasers around in recent years, and it would be a tough call to say which one was blessed with the most natural ability, the popular choice I'd assume would be KS, but I still feel it's a tricky one to call, as Master Minded put up arguably the greatest ever performance over 2 miles when winning his first Champion Chase. He has since lost that blistering pace, he had as a 5yo, though he's flourished when stepped up to 2m4, *the way he won at Aintree last year, was some performance, hammering the dual Ryanair winner Albertas Run, so im predicting 3 miles could well be exactly what he has been crying out for.*

Kauto Star put a great performance in yesterday, and if he goes to Kempton in that form then he could well take his 5th KG. I do have my doubts, as to wether Nicholls can get him right again, after such a hard race. When he was 8 or 9 you wouldn't be worried, but at 11 it may take him longer than usual. That run at Punchestown last season realy worrys me, I'd assume he ran like that because the Gold Cup took alot out of him, and as was well documented in the build up to the Betfair Chase, Nicholls had KS in Gold Cup condition.*

KS deserves to take his chance at Kempton after a great performance yesterday, but my head is telling me, that at this stage of there careers, taking there age into account, Master Minded is the more likely winner. *

So come on guys, gun at your head, which one does Ruby choose?*

 

So you think a horse untried over 3 miles, is a better choice than a horse who has won the race a mere 4 times and beats last years Gold Cup and King George winner in his first race of the season.


Its a no brainer, you have to choose Kauto Star.

 

You'd be in dire straights if your life depended on a bloody horse race, especially one with a **** load of fences in it.

On the past record of the two horses, Ruby would be a few bricks short of a full load if he picked Master Minded.

 

Easy - Ruby selects either horse then has a word with Daryl Jacob when no one can see- "Daryl I will be killed if I don't beat your horse home pull him up say he didn't feel right and you didn't want to risk it". "No worries you grey headed c u n t ". SIMPLES . Now he just has to beat the rest of the field which will include long run DOH!

 

I am assuming that everyone of us thinks it a formality that Ruby rides Kauto Star. I would be simply astounded if he got of him for an historic attempt at a 5th King George.

In my honest opinion I think it is the right decision to maximise his chance.

Firstly, let us consider Kauto Star. He was clearly not at his best last season and I thought the comments regarding his breathing were most interesting. Having re-watched the Gold Cup, he looked every inch the winner right up to the 2nd last, but stopped very quickly after that, and only just held 3rd on the line. I appreciate that this might be a difficult argument for some to buy into, but it does appear to make a lot of sense in light of the evidence available.

If Paul Nicholls is able to get Kauto Star to the King George in the same shape as he was yesterday then there is every chance that he can do it. I would say that his performance yesterday would not make him unbeatable, but it surely sets a very high standard indeed. If he can do it all over again he will ensure that anything that beats him will have to run to around 180. Of the current crop, only Long Run has shown that sort of form (179 in last seasons King George and 182 in the Gold Cup). However, it is perfectly plausible that Long Run might run a little below that level considering his propensity for jumping errors.

We all know that Kempton suits Kauto Star exceptionally well. He can maintain that relentless gallop and perfect jumping rhythm as everything else gradually falls by the wayside. I am happy to forgive him last year's effort because he was beaten, to my eye at least, coming down the home straight for the first time. He appears back on song which means that it will take a very good one to lower his colours if he can reproduce that Haydock form.

The big 'if' is whether he can. If anybody can get him to Kempton on Boxing Day in tip-top shape then it is Paul Nicholls. Quite rightly, his tremendous training performance yesterday has been lost in the praise for the horse. He might just be able to do it.

Secondly, Master Minded. He is rated 178 for his demolition job over 2m4f at Aintree. If he can reproduce that form over 3m then he would hold strong claims. I think he is fantastic, and there is nothing better than seeing him jumping when on top form, however, I have serious concerns about whether he can get the trip. To my eye he was always the specialist 2miler. As he has aged, he has lost a little of that electric pace, and probably developed a bit of stamina in its place. He has yet to race over any further than 2m4f (all three attempts at that trip at Aintree). The 3m of the King George will be a whole different ball game.

Whilst researching this topic, I cam across the following quote from Paul Nicholls after his defeat in the Melling Chase at Aintree in 2008. "He´s run a good race, he (Ruby Walsh) just said he didn´t stay – simple as that. He made a mistake but he was running on empty before then, and Ruby said, ‘We´ll just stick to two miles´. He´s absolutely fine and you will see him next in the Tingle Creek. There was always a doubt, though Ruby said when he won at Sandown that he thought he´d get two and a half. At least we know now and we will stick to two miles. There will be no, ‘Oh, he might be a King George horse´, he is going to stick to two miles, and that´s it". Even Alan King said ""You'd probably say Master Minded is a proper two-miler".

The above seems fairly conclusive that Master Minded was never considered a staying chase prospect. It is quite telling that Nicholls even says that he will not be considered for races like the King George. The way I see it is this: I think that because he is no longer up to winning the Champion Chase over 2m (though I suspect he still could on softer ground) they have basically said, "with Kauto on the wane, we need a King George horse. There are few prestigious opportunities for a horse like Master Minded over 2m4f so we therefore might as well try him in the King George. If he doesn't stay then he can be dropped back in trip for the Ryanair (or whatever)".

It seems to me that trying him over 3m is something of a last resort; "we might as well because there is nothing to lose". He has never looked a staying chaser to me and I simply do not see him staying the trip on Boxing Day. If you look at his efforts over 2m3f at Ascot (yesterday, and last year), he has won impressively on both occasions and yet I have still gotten the distinct impression that there is not a great deal left in the tank. Even though he has won easily he can hardly be described as running through the line. With the above, I can only conclude that he is not a 3miler, and can therefore cross him off for the King George.

In conclusion, I think Ruby is almost certain to ride Kauto Star on Boxing Day and I think it is the right choice as well. If he can produce a performance up to the level of that Haydock run, and there seems no obvious reason why he can't, then he must have an outstanding chance. The one small question mark is whether that race will have left its mark. It is possible but he has 5 weeks to recover, and we all know that Kempton is his track so he might even be capable of better round there. He deserves to be in the line-up, he deserves to have Ruby on his back and he deserves the utmost respect from those analysing the race. Ruby will ride him and I think he should too.

 

My god you have changed your tune, you have done nothing but diss Masterminded for over a month calling him a bridle horse who has beat nothing and find nothings under pressure, now you are saying he produced the best 2 mile performance of all time?

Kalahari King was the value call and the great Master Minded went off at 2/1 to beat Somersby, you are good for a laugh Shergar, ill give you that.

Kauto was trained for the Betfair, thats all that mattered to him this year, dont be surprised to see Ruby on Master Minded come Kempton because he has been trained for the race, but its doubtful that either will live with Long Run on the day.

 

Kauto Star, in my opinion, has to be the one for the King George. Looking at past form i think Master Minded will struggle to get the distance, and i also subscribe to the view that Kauto never ran his true race in last years KG, althought i dont think he would have won the race he would have been alot closer. He missed a number of fences, including getting in close to a few last year, McCoy was niggling away just before half way and he nearly uprouted the second last yet still finished within 8 lengths of a very good winner in Long Run.

To rule him out because Nicholls had him trained specifically for the Betfair is pure folly in my opinion. The race has every chance of improving his overall fitness as there is nothing like races to bring a horse on, i do concede that the race might have the opposite affect given his age but it is far from beyond the realms of possibility that it will have helped his overall race fitness.

His perfomance yesterday was mightily impressive even if we say that Long Run needed the race. Taking a line through Diamond Harry, the horse we know has always run his full race first time up each season, Kauto Star has run a race in the high seventies easily.

 

Absolute no brainer. Kauto Star, proven stayer, A brilliant record around Kempton, As won the race 4 times previously and after his performance yesterday Ruby would be crazy to hop off Kauto in the KG. That said I hope Master Minded takes his chance, Incredibly talented stays 2 and half very easily so I don't see 3 miles being a problem although thats easier said. Intresting renewal...

 

Where exactly have I ever said Master Minded has beat nothing? You realy do talk some utter rubbish. I did call MM a bridle horse, and I still stand by that, that is not knocking the horse, as when right he doesn't need to come off the bridle, like when he bolted up in his first Champion Chase, or when he won at Aintree last year.

I only felt Kalahari King was the value call, because of the 10 pounds he was receiving, and MM has failed on 2 previous occasions to carry a penalty to victory, and had been turned over at 2/5 in his previous race. As it turns out Kalahari King was pulled up lame, so I hardly see how that is something to laugh about.

We all know that MM on his day is an outstanding race horse, and on his day he is as good as anything, but he has been a little inconsistent throughout his career, and when I called Kalahari King the value call MM was a general 5/4 shot, so I'm not going to suggest that he's value at that price, particularly with his last run at Aintree and with a penalty

 

I agree Shergar I think the fact that you never know what your gonna get with Master Minded adds to the excitement obviously from a punters view its a nightmare but when Master Minded gets going hes usually very hard to beat. Last year before the Champion Chase he was unbeaten and I really fancied him to reverse form with Big Zeb and even though he lost at Cheltenham he is still probably the leading 2 miler in England at this moment in time (I'd fancy him over Captain Chris any track any day, Thats just My opinion I expect to be shot down) He clearly wants more than 2 miles though as was proved in the Melling weather He'll get 3 miles is still debateable he sees the 2 and half miles out very well, He deserves to take his chance. If MM won the King George would you expect to see him in the Gold Cup? Surely he'd have to but 3 miles around Cheltenham with MM is a bridge too far IMO. If he fails at Kempton, The Ascot Chase/Ryanair isn't a bad alternative...

 

Just watch the replay of the race at the weekend and then try and truthfully say that you think Master Minded will get 3m. To my eye he was drying up at the finish, and in the last 50 yards Somersby made up quite a bit of ground (a couple of lengths). I just can't for the life of me see him staying.

 

Zenyatta.....Saying a horse won't stay because another horse is closing at the finish, is a point I can't agree with.*

Yes Somersby may have made up a lengh or 2, though it was very minimal, though that doesn't mean MM wont stay further. MM was conceeding 5 pounds and he had been in top gear for a while.*

Let's take the great stayer Yeats, when he was in his prime, if we got him to go flat out for 6 furlongs, I think we can all agree that his slowest furlong*would be the last one. So would that make him a no stayer?

I know that example is abit extreme, but I hope you understand the point im trying to make.*

Horses cannot go flat out for ever, and if they get into top gear early in a race, then yes there opponents could well be gaining at the finish. *

If you realy want to re watch a race, that shows Master Minded could well stay 3 miles, then take a look at the Melling Chase over a furlong further than Saturdays race, Master Minded cruises into contention, and is pulling further and further clear, all the way to the line, there is no horse closing him down.*

Just watch that race for me, and then come back and tell me that you can't see him staying*

 

The Melling Chase was certainly an eye opener Shergy. The horse is probably one of the those special horses who compete at the top level, who possesses a genuine turn of pace. I have no doubt that if circumstances play into his hands, he'd take a power of beating at three miles, against the very best going around today. But that for me is the key, he needs things to be ideal for him. I don't know whether he can go in the mud, but I wouldn't be backing him to toss the big guns, if the race comes down to a test of strength. The Melling was run to suit him. He was well smothered by Walsh, in a race where they ambled around for the first half of the race. There didn't seem to be any cut in the ground that day, so he came fresh, on top of the ground, in what was reduced to probably a two mile race, due to the lack of pace early on. Everything about the Melling was laid on for him.

 

My theory about Master Minded in the Champion Chase and Melling Chase is this. It is well documented that Master Minded prefers a bit of cut in the ground, and it was very quick for the Champion Chase. As a result he refused to let himself down on the ground and was well beaten, and consequently did not have a hard race at all. He then goes to Aintree and runs an absolute cracker in the Melling Chase. He was so far on top that day that it is difficult to envisage anything other than a Master Minded win. However, it is fair to say that the race was run to suit, and that he might have been a little 'fresher' than much of the opposition. Aintree is the perfect track for him to stay 2m4f. It bears no comparison to 3m round Kempton, except perhaps that they are both flat!

I do see what you're saying but I just cannot see him staying at all. I'll be delighted if I'm wrong, because Master Minded in full flight round Kempton in the King George would be a sight to behold.

I was talking about this with a friend of mine and I commented (about my own view on the race) that it perhaps seemed strange that I fancy Captain Chris, another horse with unproven stamina, but cannot have Master Minded for the race at all. He said to me it made perfect sense because Captain Chris was running his races by getting outpaced and then staying on really strongly at the death, where as Master Minded was the sort of horse doing the outpacing and then being closed down at the finish. To me Captain Chris is crying out for 3m, and Master Minded is not. It will be interesting to see what happens!

 

Would agree that if given the option the Ruby boy will choose Kauto Star and I would say that this would be the correct one.

I always harp on about the fact that in my opinion the old King George VI ‘ruined’ one of my old faves in Azertyiuop and am slightly apprehensive about Master Minded running in the heat for fear that it could do the same to him.

Personally though I think they will both have it all to do to topple Long Run from his throne on St Stephen’s Day.

 

The bookmakers, have the pair of them as co 2nd favourites pretty much, with both horses prices ranging from 4s to 5s. Yet pretty much everyone on here has sided with KS. Just goes to show that the majority of punters bet with there heart, rather than there head. The reason that 97% of punters lose

 

I just think Ruby Walsh will stay loyal to KS after all the big wins he as given him not to mention his creditable win last weekend, Hes a proven stayer and as won the race 4 times before. MM I think will stay the distance but theres that edge of doubt and if someone else won on Kauto Star at Kempton come boxing day I don't think there would be a sicker man in Surrey than Ruby Walsh. I thought the question was who would Ruby Walsh ride not who do you think will win the King George? I find it hard to look beyond Long Run unless Kauto produces one of his personal best's...

 

Istabraq.....If you read the article, you would have seen that I conceded Ruby Walsh was guaranteed to choose KS. My question was if you were Ruby, and someone had a gun at your head, telling you that you must win the KG, then who would you choose?

 

I'd still choose Kauto Star...