Well I do this every season, and generally get reminded if I don't so here goes again... Right well I'm going to keep it simple this time round and base it only on the last five seasons of League One. We have 50 points. Well I think its pretty obvious we are not getting relegated but I will give you the stats just the same: Last season 2014/15 was the only season in the last five where you needed more than 50 points to avoid the drop and we will quickly gloss over 2009-10, the prior four seasons, you needed more than 48 points - so job done, well done JE and Mr Scally can at least plan around another league one season at the minimum. Our only goal now at this current time is to finish higher than 7th, forget autos for the moment it gets all too great an expectation. So what do we have left to do to finish 6th at least, well let us look at the last five seasons again: 2014-15 Bradford City 7th 65pts 2013-14 Sheffield Utd 7th 67pts 2012-13 Leyton Orient 7th 71pts 2011-12 Notts County 7th 73pts - Stevenage took 6th on GD 2010-11 Leyton Orient 7th 70pts So it is pretty obvious from the above what is left to be done. However, looking back through the entire history since 2000, there has been three occasions where more than the above was required, these were: 2008-09 Tranmere Rovers 7th 74 points, now that's still around the same sort of average but these next ones will hurt and it involves Tranmere Rovers again, how unlucky are they: 2002-03 Tranmere Rovers 7th 80 points! and a season we will all remember.... 1999-00 Bristol Rovers 7th 80 points. Therefore on average we need about roughly another 23 points for play offs or worse case scenario 31, or in simpler terms another 8 wins. So what do we need to do to get Auto's I hear you ask, best guess, we need to be touching 90 points+, yes it can be done on less, but pretty much we need to do what we have already done for the second half of the season too...so don't start dreaming too soon, but at least play-offs are very realistic and within our grasp. We have 21 games left and need 8 wins or 11 for the upper marker - i think that is a more than fair and realistic target to set any team and manager if I were chairman But one final bit of stats and you really have to feel for Tranmere Rovers again, they are the only team within the last five seasons, that have been within the top 2 between the 3rd and 4th January and not even ended up with a playoff place at least, they finished 11th in 2012-13, after having the same as us 50 points at this stage and they were top, but only went on to earn another 17!...of their last six games, they lost 5 and drew 1 !! Every other team, so that would be 9 times out of 10 got a play off at minimum.
Well done good stats. I think we will get between 76and 82pts so unlkely to make top 2 but in the play offs.
I think based on the current form, we will get somewhere between 50 and 116 points and I expect us to finish in the top 24.
Unless we cheat we're not going to get 116 points. We have only 21 more league games ( a maximum of 63 points ). The last time I added 50 + 63 it came to 113. nb Can I suggest you start to learn your 'times tables' ( see ARGS thread for details ) Happy New Year -alwaysright just being always right.
Our last 10 games of the season with current league positions. Southend..........7th Wallsall.............3rd Bury..................14th Coventry. .........4th Sheff Utd..........8th Port Vale..........13th Rochdale..........9th Shrewsbury......20th Burton..............1st Millwall.............10th With 7 of our last 10 games against current top 10 teams, we need to get as many points between now and March as possible. I'm not saying any of those games are un-winnable but clearly they're harder than some of our other matches.
I did say that I predict we will get anything between 50 and 116 so any points we get will be between that bracket, regardless if we get the maximum possible points, it will still be in the points bracket I suggested
Pegleg - I hope you're tall and have a long handled shovel - it's quite a deep hole out of which you're digging yourself.
Good point PegLeg! However you have been complacent in ignoring the possibility of docked points. Always a possibility with our controversial chairman! I will therefore be a bit more cautious and hereby predict that we will amass between -9,999 and 9,999 points this season. Ladbrokes have not yet got back to me on what odds they'll offer me for this, but fingers crossed!
Sorry fellas - I forgot it was pantomime season - talking of which - my older son was 'forced', by his girlfriend, to attend a pantomime on Saturday, instead of going to Gills - the look on his face was priceless.
He gets Gills ( and others ) goal alerts on his phone - I think he would probably have had a heart attack if we had scored our third within moments of our second ( as we should have done ). brb - it's good that you can mention Hereford without dying. Yesterday I met up with a friend who is a Millwall supporter. You can imagine what greeting I gave. It's a pity that I don't have a friend who supports Swindon.
I mentioned our last ten games of the season and suggested they could be difficult, our games against those teams so far have recorded only 4 wins, 15 points, 1.5 points per game average, which is below our overall average for the season so far.
grumpy I'm not usually optimistic ( as far as it relates to Gills ) - but we just need to take each game as it comes. Of the 10 teams you have listed - we wasted a 2-0 lead at Walsall, losing the game in the dying moments of injury time. We were ahead at Port Vale and Shrewsbury - but conceded late goals to cost us victories. The Burton game was rubbish by both teams ( in bad weather ), before the sending off ruined the game as a contest. My point being that the points tally could easily have been more. I actually believe that we should be looking to obtain around 20 points from the last 10 games - which is not unreasonable. Of course this may depend on Gills remaining solid in the 6 pointer games, and ruthless against the so called 'weaker' sides. And if we've still got Dack ( and how well we perform during his imminent suspension ) - and how well we do after Samuel goes back to Reading................ So, perhaps we won't get anything like 20 points- oh well, I'm sure we won't get relegated this season.
